{"id":8637,"date":"2026-02-24T12:02:16","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T09:02:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/?p=8637"},"modified":"2026-02-24T12:02:16","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T09:02:16","slug":"hanehalki-beklentilerinin-olcumunde-yeni-yaklasim-tcmbnin-hanehalki-beklenti-anketi-ile-ilgili-kapsamli-bir-analiz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/02\/24\/hanehalki-beklentilerinin-olcumunde-yeni-yaklasim-tcmbnin-hanehalki-beklenti-anketi-ile-ilgili-kapsamli-bir-analiz\/","title":{"rendered":"Hanehalk\u0131 Beklentilerinin \u00d6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcnde Yeni Yakla\u015f\u0131m: TCMB\u2019nin Hanehalk\u0131 Beklenti Anketi ile \u0130lgili Kapsaml\u0131 Bir Analiz"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"199\" data-end=\"569\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019nda g\u00f6rev yapan Dilek B\u00f6l\u00fckba\u015f (K\u0131demli Uzman), Ezgi Deryol (Uzman), K\u00fcbra Y\u0131ld\u0131z \u00d6zerta\u015f (Uzman Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131) ve \u00d6zlem Sevin\u00e7 (Uzman); 2026 Ocak verisiyle birlikte yay\u0131mlanmaya ba\u015flanan Hanehalk\u0131 Beklenti Anketi\u2019nin (HBA), hanehalk\u0131 beklentilerini daha kapsaml\u0131 ve daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00f6l\u00e7mek amac\u0131yla tasarland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"571\" data-end=\"862\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Yazarlar, TCMB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131n\u0131 \u015fekillendirirken farkl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerin beklentilerini \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6sterge olarak izledi\u011fini, bu nedenle hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketim ve tasarruf davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 belirleyen beklentilerin anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131nda anket \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n kritik bir bilgi kayna\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"571\" data-end=\"862\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">B\u00f6l\u00fckba\u015f, Deryol, \u00d6zerta\u015f ve Sevin\u00e7; T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de hanehalk\u0131 beklentilerine ili\u015fkin verilerin uzun s\u00fcredir T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc T\u00fcketici E\u011filim Anketi (TEA) \u00fczerinden derlendi\u011fini hat\u0131rlatt\u0131. Ancak yazarlar, TEA\u2019n\u0131n Avrupa Komisyonu e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcm\u00fcnde uygulanan standart \u00e7er\u00e7evesi nedeniyle \u00fclkeye \u00f6zg\u00fc ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 sorularla geni\u015fletilmesinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Bu nedenle TCMB\u2019nin, hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle enflasyon ve enflasyonla yak\u0131ndan ili\u015fkili ekonomik-finansal g\u00f6stergelere dair beklentilerini daha ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 analiz edebilmek i\u00e7in HBA\u2019y\u0131 T\u00dc\u0130K i\u015f birli\u011fiyle uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"898\" data-end=\"1495\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019nda g\u00f6rev yapan Dilek B\u00f6l\u00fckba\u015f (K\u0131demli Uzman), Ezgi Deryol (Uzman), K\u00fcbra Y\u0131ld\u0131z \u00d6zerta\u015f (Uzman Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131) ve \u00d6zlem Sevin\u00e7 (Uzman) imzas\u0131yla yay\u0131nlana analiz \u015f\u00f6yle:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n (TCMB) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 \u015fekillendirirken dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergelerden biri farkl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerin beklentileri. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan, ekonomik birimlerin beklentileri do\u011frultusunda \u015fekillenen t\u00fcketim ve tasarruf davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 amac\u0131yla y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen anket \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir bilgi kayna\u011f\u0131 niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu yaz\u0131da, 2026 Ocak ay\u0131 verisi ile birlikte TCMB taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanmaya ba\u015flanan ve hanehalk\u0131 beklentilerini daha kapsaml\u0131 ve sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde \u00f6l\u00e7mek amac\u0131yla tasarlanan Hanehalk\u0131 Beklenti Anketi\u2019ne (HBA) ili\u015fkin bilgi veriyoruz.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Enflasyon Odakl\u0131 Bir Yakla\u015f\u0131m\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de hanehalk\u0131 beklentilerine ili\u015fkin veriler T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu (T\u00dc\u0130K) taraf\u0131ndan y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen T\u00fcketici E\u011filim Anketi (TEA) arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla derleniyor. Ancak, Avrupa Komisyonu e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcm\u00fcnde \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00fclkede uygulanan TEA, standart bir \u00e7er\u00e7eveye sahip oldu\u011fundan soru setinin \u00fclkeye \u00f6zg\u00fc ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 sorular i\u00e7erecek \u015fekilde revizyonuna s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yor. Bu nedenle TCMB, hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n enflasyona ve enflasyonla yak\u0131ndan ili\u015fkili ekonomik ve finansal g\u00f6stergelere dair beklentilerini ve bu beklentilerle uyumlu davran\u0131\u015f e\u011filimlerini daha kapsaml\u0131 bi\u00e7imde analiz etmeye imk\u00e2n sa\u011flayacak HBA\u2019y\u0131 daha \u00f6zel bir \u00e7er\u00e7evede tasarlad\u0131 ve T\u00dc\u0130K i\u015f birli\u011fiyle uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Anketler Aras\u0131 Farklar<\/span><\/h3>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">HBA\u2019n\u0131n TEA\u2019dan ayr\u0131\u015fan en belirgin y\u00f6n\u00fc yaz\u0131m dili ve enflasyon beklentilerine ili\u015fkin soru kapsam\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131. TEA\u2019daki hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon beklentilerini \u00f6l\u00e7meye y\u00f6nelik\u00a0<a style=\"color: #000000;\" href=\"https:\/\/economy-finance.ec.europa.eu\/document\/download\/267501b5-5cc1-4e62-9d3c-6874319e15a0_en?filename=questionnaires_tr_cons_tr.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">soru ifadeleri<\/a>, kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan farkl\u0131 yorumlanabiliyor. Literat\u00fcrde de hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon alg\u0131 ve beklentilerinin soru diline duyarl\u0131 oldu\u011fu vurgulan\u0131yor. Bu nedenle HBA\u2019da, beklentilerin daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclebilmesi amac\u0131yla soru dili \u201cenflasyon oran\u0131\u201d olarak sadele\u015ftirilerek kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lara daha anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r ve net bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve sunuluyor. Enflasyon beklentilerine ek olarak, HBA\u2019da hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n konut fiyatlar\u0131, dolar kuru ve yat\u0131r\u0131m tercihlerine ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirme ve beklentileri de soruluyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">HBA\u2019n\u0131n yenilik\u00e7i y\u00f6nlerinden biri de kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lara beklentilerinin mevcut verilere ili\u015fkin \u00f6n bilgilendirme yap\u0131larak sorulmas\u0131. Bu uygulamaya bilgi tedavisi ad\u0131 veriliyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin enflasyona ili\u015fkin soru setinde, kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 ile \u00f6ncelikle son ay ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon oran\u0131 bilgisi payla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor, ard\u0131ndan kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131dan bu oranla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yaparak gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik bir de\u011ferlendirme yapmas\u0131, daha sonra ise do\u011frudan enflasyon oran\u0131na ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131k u\u00e7lu say\u0131sal tahminde bulunmas\u0131 isteniyor (Tablo 1). Bu sayede, soru kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan daha anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r hale getirilerek beklentilerin i\u00e7sel tutarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcn kalitesi art\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">HBA\u2019n\u0131n y\u00f6ntemsel avantajlar\u0131ndan biri ise TEA\u2019dan farkl\u0131 olarak \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k rotasyonlu panel yap\u0131da tasarlanmas\u0131. Bu yap\u0131da, her ay kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7te biri anketten \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131rken yerlerine yeni kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar d\u00e2hil ediliyor. B\u00f6ylece, her ay hem yeni g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flere ula\u015fma hem de kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 birka\u00e7 d\u00f6nem boyunca takip ederek zaman i\u00e7indeki beklenti de\u011fi\u015fimlerini analiz etme imk\u00e2n\u0131 kazan\u0131l\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, anket soru kurgusu ve \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131l\u0131klar Tablo 1\u2019de \u00f6zetleniyor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/tcmbblog.org\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/ccd49d03-a5a3-4ca7-a764-534d545ae9b0\/1\/Tablo1TR.png?MOD=AJPERES\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<h3 dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u0130lk Bulgular<\/span><\/h3>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">2026 Ocak verisi itibar\u0131yla TCMB\u2018nin Sekt\u00f6rel Enflasyon Beklentileri b\u00fclteninde hanehalk\u0131 beklentilerinin hesaplanmas\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan TEA\u2019n\u0131n yerini HBA al\u0131yor. HBA\u2019n\u0131n fiyat seviyesi yerine do\u011frudan t\u00fcketici enflasyonuna odaklanan soru yap\u0131s\u0131 ve \u00f6nceki aya ait y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon bilgisinin kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131larla payla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, beklentilerin daha net bir referans \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde olu\u015fmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Yeni veri kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131yla birlikte, hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n 12 ay sonras\u0131 enflasyon beklentileri ocak ve \u015fubat aylar\u0131nda TEA\u2019ya k\u0131yasla s\u0131ras\u0131yla 3,3 ve 2,3 puan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olarak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor (Grafik 1).<\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/tcmbblog.org\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/ccd49d03-a5a3-4ca7-a764-534d545ae9b0\/2\/TR+%281%29.PNG?MOD=AJPERES\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u015eubat ay\u0131nda kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyonunun y\u00fczde 48,8; konut fiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 35,4 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini beklerken ABD dolar\u0131 kurunda y\u00fczde 19,0 ile g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f bekliyor. D\u00f6viz kuru beklentilerinin, enflasyon beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n belirtilen d\u00f6nemde T\u00fcrk liras\u0131nda reel de\u011ferlenme \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ima ediyor. \u00d6te yandan, konut fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f beklentisinin enflasyon beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n reel olarak gerileyece\u011finin beklendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor (Grafik 2).<\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/tcmbblog.org\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/ccd49d03-a5a3-4ca7-a764-534d545ae9b0\/3\/Slide2.PNG?MOD=AJPERES\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">TCMB, bu yeni anket ile birlikte kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n beklentilerini cinsiyet, ya\u015f, gelir ve e\u011fitim durumlar\u0131na g\u00f6re demografik k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mda da yay\u0131ml\u0131yor. \u015eubat ay\u0131nda gelecek 12 aya ili\u015fkin enflasyon beklentileri demografik k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mlarda incelendi\u011finde, gruplar aras\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 farkl\u0131l\u0131klar bulundu\u011fu ve beklentilerin dar bir aral\u0131kta k\u00fcmelendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor (Grafik 3).<\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/tcmbblog.org\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/ccd49d03-a5a3-4ca7-a764-534d545ae9b0\/4\/TR+%283%29.PNG?MOD=AJPERES\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Anket kapsam\u0131na al\u0131nan di\u011fer bir yeni soru ile kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lara, enflasyon ve kur beklentileri \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u015fu anda yat\u0131r\u0131m yapabilecekleri nakit varl\u0131klar\u0131 olsa \u00f6ncelikli olarak hangi yat\u0131r\u0131m arac\u0131n\u0131 tercih edecekleri soruluyor. Sonu\u00e7lar hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n geleneksel yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131na y\u00f6nelme e\u011filiminin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. \u015eubat ay\u0131nda, kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fczde 55,5\u2019i\u00a0<em>alt\u0131n\u0131<\/em>\u00a0\u00f6ncelikli yat\u0131r\u0131m arac\u0131 olarak s\u0131ralarken, y\u00fczde 30,0\u2019\u0131\u00a0<em>gayrimenkul\u00fc<\/em>\u00a0\u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. D\u00f6viz tercihinin ve di\u011fer finansal ara\u00e7lara y\u00f6nelimin ise olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor (Grafik 4).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/tcmbblog.org\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/ccd49d03-a5a3-4ca7-a764-534d545ae9b0\/5\/TR+%284%29.PNG?MOD=AJPERES\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<h3 dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Sonu\u00e7<\/span><\/h3>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00d6zetle HBA hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n beklentilerini T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye \u00f6zg\u00fc bir yakla\u015f\u0131mla, enflasyonu merkeze alan bir \u00e7er\u00e7evede daha net ve kapsaml\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00f6l\u00e7me imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu iyile\u015ftirme ile birlikte, anket 2026 Ocak ay\u0131 itibar\u0131yla Sekt\u00f6rel Enflasyon Beklentileri\u2019nde hanehalk\u0131 beklentilerinin temsilinde kullan\u0131lmaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Para politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fun ve dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin devam\u0131 ile birlikte hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon beklentilerindeki iyile\u015fmenin s\u00fcrmesini ve beklentiler ile enflasyon aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n kademeli olarak azalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"898\" data-end=\"1495\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>TCMB uzmanlar\u0131 Dilek B\u00f6l\u00fckba\u015f, Ezgi Deryol, K\u00fcbra Y\u0131ld\u0131z \u00d6zerta\u015f ve \u00d6zlem Sevin\u00e7, 2026 Ocak itibar\u0131yla yay\u0131mlanmaya ba\u015flayan Hanehalk\u0131 Beklenti Anketi\u2019nin enflasyon odakl\u0131, sadele\u015ftirilmi\u015f soru dili ve \u201cbilgi tedavisi\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla beklentileri daha net \u00f6l\u00e7meyi hedefledi\u011fini belirtti; anket, Sekt\u00f6rel Enflasyon Beklentileri\u2019nde hanehalk\u0131 verilerinde TEA\u2019n\u0131n yerini ald\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8638,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[370,1701,2819,435,432],"class_list":["post-8637","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiz","tag-dezenflasyon","tag-enflasyonbeklentisi","tag-hanehalkibeklentianketi","tag-parapolitikasi","tag-tcmb"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Hanehalk\u0131 Beklentilerinin \u00d6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcnde Yeni Yakla\u015f\u0131m: TCMB\u2019nin Hanehalk\u0131 Beklenti Anketi ile \u0130lgili Kapsaml\u0131 Bir Analiz - Merceknet Haber<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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