ABD\u2019nin iki u\u00e7ak gemisi \u00fczerinden \u015fekillenen askeri y\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u011f\u0131, Tahran\u2013Washington hatt\u0131ndaki dolayl\u0131 temaslar\u0131n t\u0131kand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Ancak as\u0131l kritik soru \u015fu: \u0130ran y\u00f6netimi, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ordusunun bask\u0131s\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda neden \u201cgeri ad\u0131m\u201d de\u011fil, en az\u0131ndan s\u00f6ylem d\u00fczeyinde \u201cmeydan okuma\u201d \u00e7izgisini tercih ediyor? Yan\u0131t, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k mimarisinin \u00fc\u00e7 temel s\u00fctununda ve i\u00e7 siyasetin hassas dengelerinde yat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
U\u00e7ak gemileriyle verilen mesaj: Diplomasi kald\u0131ra\u00e7 m\u0131, operasyon haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u0131?<\/strong><\/p>\n B\u00f6lgeye USS Abraham Lincoln<\/strong>\u2019\u00fcn konu\u015fland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve USS Gerald R. Ford<\/strong>\u2019un Akdeniz\u2019e giri\u015finin birlikte okunmas\u0131, Washington\u2019\u0131n \u201c\u00e7ok katmanl\u0131 askeri se\u00e7enekler\u201d olu\u015fturdu\u011fu alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu t\u00fcr konu\u015fland\u0131rmalar diplomaside pazarl\u0131k g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131ran bir kald\u0131ra\u00e7 olarak tasarlanabilir; fakat ayn\u0131 zamanda, taraflar pozisyon de\u011fi\u015ftirmezse \u201caskeri se\u00e7ene\u011fin\u201d masaya daha yak\u0131ndan geldi\u011fini de g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n Washington\u2019\u0131n \u015fartlar\u0131 neden Tahran\u2019da \u201cm\u00fczakere\u201d de\u011fil \u201ckapit\u00fclasyon\u201d olarak okunuyor?<\/strong><\/p>\n ABD taraf\u0131, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin yaln\u0131zca n\u00fckleer dosyayla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini; balistik f\u00fcze program\u0131<\/strong>, b\u00f6lgesel a\u011flara verilen destek<\/strong> ve i\u00e7erdeki muamele<\/strong> ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n da masada olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde vurguluyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7eve, \u0130ran y\u00f6netiminin g\u00f6z\u00fcnde \u201cpazarl\u0131k\u201d de\u011fil, cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6k\u00fcp alan bir \u201cteslimiyet paketi\u201d anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik mimarisi: \u201cDireni\u015f Ekseni\u201d, f\u00fcze program\u0131 ve \u201ce\u015fik kabiliyeti\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n Tahran\u2019\u0131n son k\u0131rk y\u0131lda kurdu\u011fu strateji, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc uluslararas\u0131 m\u00fcttefik eksikli\u011fini telafi edecek \u015fekilde \u00fc\u00e7 ayak \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi:<\/p>\n Bu \u00fc\u00e7 ayak, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u201cikincil politika\u201d de\u011fil, rejimin g\u00fcvenlik sigortas\u0131d\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu unsurlar\u0131n kapsaml\u0131 bi\u00e7imde budanmas\u0131, Tahran\u2019a g\u00f6re cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n temelini s\u00f6kmek anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n Hamaney a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hesap: S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sava\u015f m\u0131, stratejik geri \u00e7ekilme mi?<\/strong><\/p>\n Analizin merkezindeki iddia \u015fu: \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n dini liderli\u011fi, askeri bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n<\/strong> (ne kadar maliyetli olursa olsun) y\u00f6netilebilir\/atlat\u0131labilir olabilece\u011fini; fakat stratejik geri \u00e7ekilmenin<\/strong> rejimin cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k omurgas\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatarak daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir risk \u00fcretece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n Bu noktada iki risk ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor:<\/p>\n Tahran\u2019\u0131n \u201cmeydan okuma\u201d dili ne i\u015fe yar\u0131yor?<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kamuoyu \u00f6n\u00fcnde sertle\u015fen tonu, iki hedefi ayn\u0131 anda g\u00f6zetiyor olabilir:<\/p>\n Ancak bu stratejinin yan etkisi, diplomasinin manevra alan\u0131n\u0131 daraltmas\u0131: s\u00f6ylem y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f maliyeti artar, kazara t\u0131rmanma riski b\u00fcy\u00fcr.<\/p>\n Washington i\u00e7in riskler: \u201cK\u00e2\u011f\u0131t \u00fcst\u00fcnde \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck\u201d sahada otomatik sonu\u00e7 do\u011furmaz<\/strong><\/p>\n ABD\u2019nin kapasitesi tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131z olsa da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, hedef\u2013s\u00fcre\u2013siyasi sonu\u00e7 \u00fc\u00e7geninde yanl\u0131\u015f hesaplara a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma;<\/p>\n gibi ba\u015fl\u0131klarda Washington\u2019\u0131n da istemedi\u011fi sonu\u00e7lar \u00fcretebilir.<\/p>\n Olas\u0131 senaryolar: \u201cen k\u00f6t\u00fcn\u00fcn de en iyisi\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Mevcut tablo, Tahran\u2019\u0131 iki k\u00f6t\u00fc se\u00e7enek aras\u0131nda b\u0131rak\u0131yor:<\/p>\n Bu nedenle \u0130ran, en az\u0131ndan kamuoyu \u00f6n\u00fcnde, \u201cstratejik teslimiyet\u201d yerine s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve kontrol edilebilir<\/strong> g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ihtimalini daha katlan\u0131labilir sayabilir. Fakat sava\u015flar\u0131n nadiren planland\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi ilerledi\u011fi de unutulmamal\u0131: yanl\u0131\u015f hesap, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ba\u015flayan bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fctebilir<\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgeye u\u00e7ak gemileri ve ek askeri unsurlar sevk etmesiyle gerilim t\u0131rman\u0131rken, Tahran\u2019\u0131n Washington\u2019\u0131n taleplerini \u201cm\u00fczakere\u201d de\u011fil \u201cteslimiyet\u201d olarak g\u00f6rmesi; f\u00fcze program\u0131, n\u00fckleer \u201ce\u015fik\u201d kapasite ve b\u00f6lgesel a\u011flar \u00fczerinden kurdu\u011fu cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k mimarisini koruma refleksini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8275,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[575,2532,2533,273,574,2531,581,2528,2530,2529],"class_list":["post-8274","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiz","tag-abd","tag-balistikfuze","tag-caydiricilik","tag-diplomasi","tag-iran","tag-nukleerprogram","tag-ortadogu","tag-tahran","tag-ucakgemisi","tag-washington"],"yoast_head":"\n\n
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