{"id":6673,"date":"2026-02-13T10:48:38","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T07:48:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/?p=6673"},"modified":"2026-02-13T10:49:23","modified_gmt":"2026-02-13T07:49:23","slug":"tcmb-piyasa-katilimcilari-anketi-subat-2026-yil-sonu-enflasyon-beklentisi-yuzde-2411e-cikti-dolar-tl-tahmini-5109-oldu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/02\/13\/tcmb-piyasa-katilimcilari-anketi-subat-2026-yil-sonu-enflasyon-beklentisi-yuzde-2411e-cikti-dolar-tl-tahmini-5109-oldu\/","title":{"rendered":"TCMB Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi (\u015eubat 2026): Y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisi y\u00fczde 24,11\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, dolar\/TL tahmini 51,09 oldu"},"content":{"rendered":"

TCMB Veri Y\u00f6neti\u015fimi ve \u0130statistik Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc b\u00fcnyesinde yay\u0131mlanan \u201cPiyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi\u201dnin \u015eubat 2026 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131, reel sekt\u00f6r ve finansal sekt\u00f6r temsilcilerinden olu\u015fan kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yan\u0131tlar\u0131 toplula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131larak derlendi. Anket 09\u201311 \u015eubat 2026 tarihleri aras\u0131nda uyguland\u0131. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma, her ay 72 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131ya g\u00f6nderilmekle birlikte bu d\u00f6nem 71 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan yan\u0131tland\u0131; kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 54\u2019\u00fc finansal sekt\u00f6r (30 banka, 24 banka d\u0131\u015f\u0131 finans) ve 17\u2019si reel sekt\u00f6r temsilcilerinden olu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon: y\u0131l sonu yukar\u0131, 12 ay sonras\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

Anket metninde, kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n cari y\u0131l sonu T\u00dcFE beklentisinin bir \u00f6nceki anket d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 23,23 iken \u015eubat 2026\u2019da y\u00fczde 24,11\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fi kaydedildi. 12 ay sonras\u0131 T\u00dcFE beklentisi y\u00fczde 22,20\u2019den 22,10\u2019a gerilerken, 24 ay sonras\u0131 T\u00dcFE beklentisi y\u00fczde 16,94\u2019ten 17,11\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca grafiklerde, beklentilerin ima etti\u011fi patikada enflasyonun y\u00fczde 31,0 \u2013 30,3 \u2013 28,9 seviyelerinden y\u00fczde 24,1 band\u0131na ve daha ileri ufuklarda y\u00fczde 22,1 \u2013 18,4 \u2013 17,1 de\u011ferlerine do\u011fru geriledi\u011fi bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sunuldu.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon beklentilerinin da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 da raporda ayr\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131k alt\u0131nda payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 12 ay sonras\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131k tahminlerine g\u00f6re T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ortalama olarak y\u00fczde 25,87 olas\u0131l\u0131kla y\u00fczde 19,00\u201320,99 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u00fczde 33,08 olas\u0131l\u0131kla y\u00fczde 21,00\u201322,99 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve y\u00fczde 25,70 olas\u0131l\u0131kla y\u00fczde 23,00\u201324,99 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Nokta tahminlerine g\u00f6re ise kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fczde 18,46\u2019s\u0131 19,00\u201320,99; y\u00fczde 43,08\u2019i 21,00\u201322,99; y\u00fczde 29,23\u2019\u00fc 23,00\u201324,99 band\u0131nda beklenti bildirdi.<\/p>\n

24 ay sonras\u0131 beklentilerde olas\u0131l\u0131k tahminleri, T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u00fczde 16,07 olas\u0131l\u0131kla y\u00fczde 13,00\u201315,99, y\u00fczde 44,38 olas\u0131l\u0131kla y\u00fczde 16,00\u201318,99 ve y\u00fczde 18,06 olas\u0131l\u0131kla y\u00fczde 19,00\u201321,99 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret etti. Nokta tahminlerinde ise kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fczde 18,97\u2019si 13,00\u201315,99; y\u00fczde 55,17\u2019si 16,00\u201318,99; y\u00fczde 13,79\u2019u 19,00\u201321,99 band\u0131nda konumland\u0131.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Faiz: gecelikte y\u00fczde 36,95; Mart PPK i\u00e7in politika faizi beklentisi y\u00fczde 36,08<\/strong><\/p>\n

Faiz taraf\u0131nda kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, B\u0130ST Repo ve Ters-Repo Pazar\u0131\u2019nda cari ay sonu gecelik faiz beklentisi bir \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 36,43 iken bu d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 36,95 oldu. Mart ay\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in TCMB politika faizi beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 36,08 olarak kaydedildi. Raporun \u201ctoplu sonu\u00e7lar\u201d b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde politika faizi patikas\u0131; ilk toplant\u0131 y\u00fczde 36,08, ikinci toplant\u0131 y\u00fczde 34,98, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc toplant\u0131 y\u00fczde 33,69, cari y\u0131l sonu y\u00fczde 28,95, 12 ay sonras\u0131 y\u00fczde 27,67, gelecek y\u0131l sonu y\u00fczde 21,68 ve 24 ay sonras\u0131 y\u00fczde 20,51 \u015feklinde yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Kur: y\u0131l sonu 51,0933 TL; 12 ay sonras\u0131 52,3945 TL<\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u00f6viz kuru beklentilerinde, cari y\u0131l sonu ABD Dolar\u0131\/TL tahmini bir \u00f6nceki anket d\u00f6neminde 51,17 TL iken \u015eubat 2026\u2019da 51,09 TL\u2019ye s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geriledi. 12 ay sonras\u0131 dolar\/TL beklentisi ise 51,89 TL\u2019den 52,39 TL\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Toplu sonu\u00e7lar tablosunda kur beklentileri daha ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bi\u00e7imde; cari ay sonu 43,9815 TL, cari y\u0131l sonu 51,0933 TL ve 12 ay sonras\u0131 52,3945 TL olarak verildi.<\/p>\n

Cari i\u015flemler ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme: a\u00e7\u0131k beklentisi derin, b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini de\u011fi\u015fmedi<\/strong><\/p>\n

Anket kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k cari i\u015flemler dengesi beklentisi, cari y\u0131l i\u00e7in -26,3 milyar ABD dolar\u0131, gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in -29,9 milyar ABD dolar\u0131 olarak kayda ge\u00e7ti (eksi de\u011fer, a\u00e7\u0131k beklentisini g\u00f6steriyor). GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinde ise de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6zlenmedi: 2026 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,9, 2027 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4,3 beklentisi bir \u00f6nceki anket d\u00f6nemindeki seviyelerini korudu.<\/p>\n

Toplu sonu\u00e7lar: raporda yer alan t\u00fcm ana g\u00f6stergeler<\/strong><\/p>\n

Raporun \u201cPiyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi Toplu Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131\u201d b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan de\u011ferler \u015f\u00f6yle s\u0131raland\u0131: Ayl\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi cari ay y\u00fczde 2,54, 1 ay sonras\u0131 y\u00fczde 1,89, 2 ay sonras\u0131 y\u00fczde 1,89; y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi cari y\u0131l sonu y\u00fczde 24,11, 12 ay sonras\u0131 y\u00fczde 22,10, gelecek y\u0131l sonu y\u00fczde 18,40, 24 ay sonras\u0131 y\u00fczde 17,11, 5 y\u0131l sonras\u0131 y\u00fczde 11,35. Gecelik faiz i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 36,95; politika faizi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 36,08 \u2013 34,98 \u2013 33,69 (ilk \u00fc\u00e7 toplant\u0131) ve ileri ufukta y\u00fczde 28,95 \u2013 27,67 \u2013 21,68 \u2013 20,51 patikas\u0131 rapora yans\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n

TCMB, anket sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n beklentilerine dayal\u0131 olarak hesapland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ve tahminlerini yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 not etti; veri ve y\u00f6ntemsel a\u00e7\u0131klamalara TCMB\u2019nin ilgili istatistik sayfalar\u0131 ile EVDS \u00fczerinden eri\u015filebildi\u011fini hat\u0131rlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) \u015eubat 2026 Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi\u2019nde, 2026 y\u0131l sonu T\u00dcFE beklentisi bir \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re y\u00fckselerek y\u00fczde 24,11\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 12 ay sonras\u0131 enflasyon beklentisi y\u00fczde 22,10\u2019a gerilerken, 24 ay sonras\u0131 beklenti y\u00fczde 17,11\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6677,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[721,1701,1143,1700,432],"class_list":["post-6673","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-dolartl","tag-enflasyonbeklentisi","tag-faiz","tag-piyasakatilimcilarianketi","tag-tcmb"],"yoast_head":"\nTCMB Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi (\u015eubat 2026): Y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisi 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