{"id":57114,"date":"2026-10-23T10:40:32","date_gmt":"2026-10-23T07:40:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/?p=57114"},"modified":"2026-10-23T10:40:32","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T07:40:32","slug":"enflasyon-beklentilerinde-dikkat-ceken-ayrisma-vatandas-ve-reel-sektor-dusus-beklerken-piyasada-yukselis-var","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/10\/23\/enflasyon-beklentilerinde-dikkat-ceken-ayrisma-vatandas-ve-reel-sektor-dusus-beklerken-piyasada-yukselis-var\/","title":{"rendered":"Enflasyon beklentilerinde dikkat \u00e7eken ayr\u0131\u015fma: Vatanda\u015f ve reel sekt\u00f6r d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklerken piyasada y\u00fckseli\u015f var"},"content":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131, 23 Ekim 2026 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ekim ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin Sekt\u00f6rel Enflasyon Beklentileri ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 yay\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, reel sekt\u00f6r temsilcilerinin ve hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n gelecek 12 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun hangi seviyede ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini bekledi\u011fini ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n

Ekim ay\u0131nda piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n beklentisi y\u00fckselirken, reel sekt\u00f6r ve hanehalk\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydedildi.<\/p>\n

Buna ra\u011fmen vatanda\u015flar\u0131n enflasyon beklentisi, di\u011fer iki grubun olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Ekim 2026 enflasyon beklentileri tablosu<\/h2>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Kesim<\/th>\nEyl\u00fcl 2026<\/th>\nEkim 2026<\/th>\nAyl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131<\/td>\n%23,70<\/td>\n%23,89<\/td>\n+0,19 puan<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Reel sekt\u00f6r<\/td>\n%32,50<\/td>\n%31,80<\/td>\n-0,70 puan<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hanehalk\u0131<\/td>\n%45,60<\/td>\n%43,75<\/td>\n-1,85 puan<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Eyl\u00fcl de\u011ferleri, a\u00e7\u0131klanan ekim oranlar\u0131 ve ayl\u0131k puan de\u011fi\u015fimlerinden hesaplanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Veriler ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen enflasyonu de\u011fil, 12 ay sonras\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentileri g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/section>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Vatanda\u015f\u0131n enflasyon beklentisi 1,85 puan geriledi<\/h2>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n en belirgin de\u011fi\u015fimi hanehalk\u0131 beklentilerinde ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n

Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 45,60 d\u00fczeyinde bulunan gelecek 12 ayl\u0131k y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi, ekimde 1,85 puan azalarak y\u00fczde 43,75’e indi.<\/p>\n

Bu gerileme, \u00fc\u00e7 grup aras\u0131nda en b\u00fcy\u00fck ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n

Ancak hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n beklentisi, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn 11,95 puan, piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ise 19,86 puan \u00fczerinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Bu durum, vatanda\u015flar\u0131n gelecekteki fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerinin profesyonel piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ayr\u0131\u015fmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn enflasyon beklentisi y\u00fczde 31,80’e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc<\/h2>\n

\u00dcretim ve ticaret alan\u0131nda faaliyet g\u00f6steren i\u015fletmelerin gelecek 12 aya ili\u015fkin enflasyon beklentilerinde de gerileme kaydedildi.<\/p>\n

Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 32,50 olan y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi, ekimde 0,70 puan d\u00fc\u015ferek y\u00fczde 31,80’e indi.<\/p>\n

Reel sekt\u00f6rdeki beklenti, piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n 7,91 puan \u00fczerinde, hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n ise 11,95 puan alt\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fletmelerin enflasyon beklentileri; \u00fcretim maliyetlerinin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, fiyatland\u0131rma kararlar\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131m planlar\u0131 ve gelecek d\u00f6nem b\u00fct\u00e7elerinin haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131nda beklenti y\u00fckseldi<\/h2>\n

Di\u011fer iki grubun aksine piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon beklentisi ekim ay\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n

Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 23,70 olan 12 ay sonras\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi, 0,19 puan y\u00fckselerek y\u00fczde 23,89’a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6ylece piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, ara\u015ft\u0131rma kapsam\u0131ndaki \u00fc\u00e7 grup aras\u0131nda hem en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon beklentisine sahip kesim oldu hem de ekim ay\u0131nda beklentisi y\u00fckselen tek grup olarak ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu geli\u015fme, enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelerin ekonomik kesimler aras\u0131nda ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini bekleyen vatanda\u015flar\u0131n oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 16,56<\/h2>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n dikkat \u00e7eken bir di\u011fer sonucu, gelecek 12 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini bekleyen hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n oran\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 16,25 olan bu oran, ekimde 0,31 puan artarak y\u00fczde 16,56’ya y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n
G\u00f6sterge<\/th>\nEyl\u00fcl<\/th>\nEkim<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini bekleyen hanehalk\u0131<\/td>\n%16,25<\/td>\n%16,56<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ayl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim<\/td>\n\u2014<\/td>\n+0,31 puan<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Buna g\u00f6re enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenlerin pay\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir iyile\u015fme ya\u015fansa da bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc payla\u015fanlar hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k alt\u0131da birini olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n

Ancak bu sonu\u00e7, kalan vatanda\u015flar\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonun artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Di\u011fer beklenti kategorilerine ili\u015fkin da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m, payla\u015f\u0131lan verilerde yer alm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon beklentileri aras\u0131ndaki fark ne anlat\u0131yor?<\/h2>\n

Ekim ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7 ekonomik kesimin fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinin birbirinden olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n beklentileri ekonomik g\u00f6stergeler ve tahmin modelleriyle \u015fekillenirken, hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n beklentilerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131, g\u0131da, kira, ula\u015f\u0131m ve di\u011fer temel ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 etkili olabiliyor.<\/p>\n

Reel sekt\u00f6rde ise \u00fcretim maliyetleri, i\u015f\u00e7ilik, enerji, ham madde ve finansman giderleri \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu farkl\u0131l\u0131klar beklentiler aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayabilecek unsurlar aras\u0131nda bulunuyor. Ancak ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanan sonu\u00e7lar\u0131, fark\u0131n ne kadar\u0131n\u0131n hangi etkenden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6stermiyor.<\/p>\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda g\u00f6zler beklentilerde<\/h3>\n

Enflasyon beklentilerine ili\u015fkin yeni veriler, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n 22 Ekim’de politika faizini 100 baz puan indirerek y\u00fczde 36’ya \u00e7ekmesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon beklentilerinin gerilemesi, fiyat istikrar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bununla birlikte piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n beklentilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f, fiyat g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin risklerin t\u00fcm kesimlerde ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n gelecek d\u00f6nemdeki para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen enflasyonun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra beklentilerin seyri de yak\u0131ndan izlenecek.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon beklentilerinde iyile\u015fme var ancak ayr\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcr\u00fcyor<\/h2>\n

Ekim 2026 verileri, hanehalk\u0131 ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn gelecek bir y\u0131ldaki fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerinde gerileme ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n tahminlerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n

\u00d6zellikle vatanda\u015flar\u0131n y\u00fczde 43,75 d\u00fczeyindeki enflasyon beklentisi ile piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 23,89’luk tahmini aras\u0131ndaki 19,86 puanl\u0131k fark, ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n en dikkat \u00e7ekici sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan biri oldu.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon beklentilerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, fiyatlar\u0131n ucuzlayaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Beklenen enflasyonun gerilemesi, fiyatlar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde daha yava\u015f artaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ifade ediyor.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenle fiyat istikrar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerdeki iyile\u015fmenin vatanda\u015flar\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck hayat\u0131na ve i\u015fletmelerin fiyatlama kararlar\u0131na ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131, gelecek aylarda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verilerle daha net g\u00f6r\u00fclecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n (TCMB) ekim ay\u0131 Sekt\u00f6rel Enflasyon Beklentileri ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131, ekonominin \u00fc\u00e7 kesimi aras\u0131nda dikkat \u00e7ekici farkl\u0131l\u0131klar oldu\u011funu ortaya koydu. Gelecek 12 aya ili\u015fkin y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 23,89’a y\u00fckselirken, hanehalk\u0131nda y\u00fczde 43,75’e, reel sekt\u00f6rde ise y\u00fczde 31,80’e geriledi. Vatanda\u015flar\u0131n enflasyon beklentilerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ra\u011fmen piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131yla hanehalk\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark 19,86 puana ula\u015ft\u0131. Enflasyonun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir y\u0131lda d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine inanan hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n oran\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 16,56’da kald\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4139,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[115,434,1839],"class_list":["post-57114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-enflasyon","tag-merkezbankasi","tag-turkiyeekonomisi"],"yoast_head":"\nEnflasyon beklentilerinde dikkat \u00e7eken ayr\u0131\u015fma: Vatanda\u015f ve reel sekt\u00f6r d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklerken piyasada y\u00fckseli\u015f var - Merceknet Haber<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/10\/23\/enflasyon-beklentilerinde-dikkat-ceken-ayrisma-vatandas-ve-reel-sektor-dusus-beklerken-piyasada-yukselis-var\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Enflasyon beklentilerinde dikkat \u00e7eken ayr\u0131\u015fma: Vatanda\u015f ve reel sekt\u00f6r d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklerken piyasada y\u00fckseli\u015f var - Merceknet Haber\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n (TCMB) ekim ay\u0131 Sekt\u00f6rel Enflasyon Beklentileri ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131, ekonominin \u00fc\u00e7 kesimi aras\u0131nda dikkat \u00e7ekici farkl\u0131l\u0131klar oldu\u011funu ortaya koydu. 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