{"id":50954,"date":"2026-09-19T11:50:42","date_gmt":"2026-09-19T08:50:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/?p=50954"},"modified":"2026-09-19T11:50:42","modified_gmt":"2026-09-19T08:50:42","slug":"kuresel-petrol-urunlerinde-arz-alarmi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/09\/19\/kuresel-petrol-urunlerinde-arz-alarmi\/","title":{"rendered":"K\u00fcresel petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde arz alarm\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

K\u00fcresel enerji piyasalar\u0131nda arz bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k merkezi ham petrolden rafine petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine do\u011fru kay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (IEA) son verileri, rafinerilerin a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re \u00fcretimi art\u0131rmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen k\u00fcresel sistemin ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki i\u015fleme kapasitesinin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel rafineri i\u015fleme hacmi a\u011fustosta temmuza g\u00f6re g\u00fcnl\u00fck 960 bin varil artarak 81,4 milyon varile y\u00fckseldi. Buna ra\u011fmen rakam ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re g\u00fcnl\u00fck 4,2 milyon varil daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131.<\/p>\n

IEA\u2019n\u0131n eyl\u00fcl raporu da a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda rafineri i\u015fleme hacminin 81,4 milyon varile ula\u015farak yaz d\u00f6neminin zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131n\u0131n 4,2 milyon varil alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Kurum, k\u00fcresel rafineri i\u015fleme hacminin 2026 genelinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck 2,6 milyon varil azalarak ortalama 81,5 milyon varil d\u00fczeyinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel rafineri tablosu rakamlarla<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
G\u00f6sterge<\/th>\nSon durum<\/th>\nDe\u011fi\u015fim \/ beklenti<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
A\u011fustos k\u00fcresel rafineri i\u015fleme hacmi<\/td>\n81,4 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn<\/strong><\/td>\nAyl\u0131k +960 bin varil\/g\u00fcn<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Y\u0131ll\u0131k kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma<\/td>\n81,4 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn<\/strong><\/td>\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n a\u011fustosuna g\u00f6re -4,2 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2026 k\u00fcresel rafineri i\u015fleme beklentisi<\/td>\n81,5 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn<\/strong><\/td>\n2025\u2019e g\u00f6re -2,6 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rusya 3. \u00e7eyrek rafineri faaliyetleri<\/td>\n\u2014<\/td>\nY\u0131ll\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k -1,2 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Orta Do\u011fu 3. \u00e7eyrek rafineri faaliyetleri<\/td>\n\u2014<\/td>\nYakla\u015f\u0131k -1,7 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rusya + K\u00f6rfez dizel\/gaz ya\u011f\u0131 net ihracat\u0131<\/td>\n\u2014<\/td>\n\u015eubata g\u00f6re -1,6 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rusya ve K\u00f6rfez’in sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi k\u00fcresel deniz yolu dizel\/gaz ya\u011f\u0131 ticaretindeki pay\u0131<\/td>\n\u2014<\/td>\nYakla\u015f\u0131k %45<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

A\u011fustostaki ayl\u0131k toparlanman\u0131n arkas\u0131nda iki \u00f6nemli geli\u015fme bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019de ham petrol i\u015fleme hacmi son 7 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131karken \u00c7in rafinerilerinde de \u00fcretim toparland\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019de i\u00e7 talebin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve ihracat \u00fczerindeki k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n gev\u015fetilmesi sonucunda petrol \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc ihracat\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,5 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ancak ABD ve \u00c7in kaynakl\u0131 \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131, Rusya ile Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da olu\u015fan b\u00fcy\u00fck kapasite kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 tamamen kar\u015f\u0131lamaya yetmiyor.<\/p>\n

Rusya ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki kay\u0131p milyonlarca varili buluyor<\/h2>\n

Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n Rus enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle Rusya\u2019daki rafineri faaliyetlerinin y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,2 milyon varil daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

IEA da Rus rafineri sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki son duruma ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmesinde sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n s\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve yo\u011funlu\u011funun rafineri faaliyetlerinin k\u0131sa vadede anlaml\u0131 bi\u00e7imde toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Kurum, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n rafineri i\u015fleme tahminini 2026\u2019n\u0131n kalan d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 4 milyon varile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da ise b\u00f6lgedeki sava\u015f ve lojistik kesintilerin etkisiyle rafineri faaliyetlerinin g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,7 milyon varil daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6ylece iki kritik \u00fcretim merkezinde ayn\u0131 anda ya\u015fanan kay\u0131plar, yaln\u0131zca ham petrol \u00fcretimini de\u011fil, ham petrol\u00fcn motorin, benzin ve jet yak\u0131t\u0131 gibi nihai \u00fcr\u00fcnlere d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclme kapasitesini de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Arz kayb\u0131n\u0131n iki ana merkezi<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
B\u00f6lge<\/th>\nSorunun kayna\u011f\u0131<\/th>\nRafineri \/ ihracat \u00fczerindeki etkisi<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Rusya<\/strong><\/td>\nRafineri ve enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar<\/td>\nRafineri faaliyetlerinde ve \u00f6zellikle dizel ihracat\u0131nda kay\u0131p<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Orta Do\u011fu<\/strong><\/td>\nSava\u015f, rafineri kesintileri ve deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki aksakl\u0131klar<\/td>\nHam petrol teslimat\u0131 ile petrol \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc ihracat\u0131nda azalma<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ve K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz hatlar\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\nG\u00fcvenlik riskleri ve ak\u0131\u015f k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131<\/td>\nNakliye rotalar\u0131n\u0131n uzamas\u0131, maliyetlerin y\u00fckselmesi<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Avrupa<\/strong><\/td>\nMevsimsel rafineri bak\u0131mlar\u0131<\/td>\nSonbahar-k\u0131\u015f d\u00f6neminde kullan\u0131labilir kapasitenin azalmas\u0131<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ABD<\/strong><\/td>\nY\u00fcksek kapasite kullan\u0131m\u0131<\/td>\nYeni kesintileri telafi edecek yedek kapasitenin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki aksamalar ve Rus rafinerilerindeki hasar, IEA\u2019n\u0131n son aylardaki petrol piyasas\u0131 raporlar\u0131nda da k\u00fcresel \u00fcr\u00fcn piyasalar\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedenleri aras\u0131nda g\u00f6steriliyor.<\/p>\n

Dizel ve gaz ya\u011f\u0131 ticaretindeki kay\u0131p dikkat \u00e7ekiyor<\/h2>\n

Rafineri faaliyetlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn en belirgin yans\u0131malar\u0131ndan biri uluslararas\u0131 petrol \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc ticaretinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en ay Rusya ile K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin toplam net dizel ve gaz ya\u011f\u0131 ihracat\u0131, \u015fubat ay\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,6 milyon varil azald\u0131<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Rakam\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koyan en \u00f6nemli veri ise bu iki b\u00f6lgenin d\u00fcnya dizel ticaretindeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131.<\/p>\n

Rusya ve K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri, sava\u015f \u00f6ncesindeki \u015fubat ay\u0131nda k\u00fcresel deniz yoluyla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen dizel ve gaz ya\u011f\u0131 ticaretinin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 45\u2019ini<\/strong> kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n

Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla d\u00fcnyan\u0131n iki b\u00fcy\u00fck tedarik merkezinde ayn\u0131 anda ya\u015fanan gerileme, \u00f6zellikle orta distilat olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan dizel, gaz ya\u011f\u0131 ve jet yak\u0131t\u0131 piyasas\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir arz bask\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n

IEA\u2019n\u0131n Rus rafineri sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne ili\u015fkin son analizinde de k\u00fcresel deniz yoluyla dizel ve gaz ya\u011f\u0131 ihracat\u0131n\u0131n 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk sekiz ay\u0131nda ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 10 geriledi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer rafineriler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kapatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor ama kapasite s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131<\/h2>\n

Y\u00fcksek petrol \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc fiyatlar\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc rafineri marjlar\u0131, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00f6lgelerindeki rafinerilere \u00fcretimi art\u0131rmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik te\u015fvik sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenle Rusya ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan kaynaklanan arz kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 ABD, \u00c7in ve di\u011fer b\u00f6lgelerdeki \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131lan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Ancak bu telafi mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n da bir s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6zellikle OECD \u00fclkelerinde rafineri kullan\u0131m oranlar\u0131n\u0131n zaten y\u00fcksek seviyelerde seyretmesi, mevcut sistemin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn kapasite s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131na yak\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Buna sonbahar aylar\u0131yla birlikte ba\u015flayacak planl\u0131 rafineri bak\u0131m sezonu da eklendi\u011finde, yeni bir arz kesintisi ya\u015fanmas\u0131 durumunda k\u00fcresel sistemin \u00fcretimi h\u0131zla art\u0131rarak a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kapatma kabiliyeti azal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenle k\u00fcresel rafineri i\u015fleme hacminin 2026\u2019da ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re g\u00fcnl\u00fck 2,6 milyon varil gerileyerek ortalama 81,5 milyon varil d\u00fczeyinde kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde stok tamponu neden yetersiz?<\/h2>\n

Avrupa merkezli ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z veri sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 Montel\u2019in Jeopolitik Enerji Analisti Andres Cala<\/strong>, rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n ham petrol piyasas\u0131na g\u00f6re k\u0131sa vadede \u00e7ok daha az esnek oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n

Cala\u2019ya g\u00f6re ABD\/\u0130srail-\u0130ran ve Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n etkisi, ba\u015fta dizel olmak \u00fczere d\u00fcnya petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri arz\u0131n\u0131 ciddi \u015fekilde sekteye u\u011fratm\u0131\u015f durumda ve olu\u015fan kay\u0131p k\u00fcresel talebin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 4\u2019\u00fcne<\/strong> kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor.<\/p>\n

Petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin stok tamponunun ham petrole k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck oldu\u011funu anlatan Cala, mevcut krizin yaln\u0131zca yeralt\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan petrol miktar\u0131yla a\u00e7\u0131klanamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Cala \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmeyi yapt\u0131:<\/p>\n

“\u00dcr\u00fcn piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen ham petrol piyasalar\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha fazla daralmas\u0131, fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na, b\u00f6lgesel k\u0131tl\u0131klara ve ihracat yasaklar\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00dcstelik bu durum, talebin mevsimsel olarak artmas\u0131 beklenen bir d\u00f6nemde, Avrupa’da planl\u0131 rafineri bak\u0131m sezonuyla ayn\u0131 zamana denk geliyor. Bu \u015fok, piyasada yaln\u0131zca daha az petrol bulunmas\u0131yla ilgili de\u011fil, as\u0131l mesele, petrol\u00fcn ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan yerlerde belirli \u00fcr\u00fcnlere d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclme kapasitesinin azalm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131.”<\/p>\n

Cala\u2019n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmesi, mevcut enerji s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kritik noktas\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor: K\u00fcresel sistemde ham petrol bulunmas\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli de\u011fil. Ham petrol\u00fcn t\u00fcketicinin ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu b\u00f6lgelerde, ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan miktarda motorin, benzin ve jet yak\u0131t\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclebilmesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

Sonbahar ve k\u0131\u015f dizel i\u00e7in kritik<\/h2>\n

Petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri piyasas\u0131 sonbahar ve k\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemine girerken risklerin dizel taraf\u0131nda daha yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n

Cala, rafineri marjlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek seviyelerin do\u011frudan \u00fcr\u00fcn piyasas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret etti\u011fini belirterek \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi:<\/p>\n

“Dizel talebinin genellikle artt\u0131\u011f\u0131, Avrupa ve ABD’deki rafinerilerin mevsimsel bak\u0131ma al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonbahar ve k\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemine giriyoruz. Bu da kullan\u0131labilecek yedek kapasitenin nispeten s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131na neden oluyor.”<\/p>\n

Bu tablo, dizel a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00fc\u00e7 fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn ayn\u0131 anda devreye girdi\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Dizel piyasas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran unsur<\/th>\nEtkisi<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Mevsimsel talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\nSonbahar ve k\u0131\u015f aylar\u0131nda t\u00fcketimi destekliyor<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Avrupa ve ABD’de rafineri bak\u0131mlar\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00dcretim kapasitesini ge\u00e7ici olarak azalt\u0131yor<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rusya ve Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 arz kayb\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\nK\u00fcresel ihracat hacmini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fcr\u00fcn stoklar\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\nAni kesintilere kar\u015f\u0131 tamponu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclt\u00fcyor<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yedek kapasite<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00dcretimin h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Benzin daha \u00f6nce, dizel daha ge\u00e7 normalle\u015febilir<\/h2>\n

Andres Cala\u2019ya g\u00f6re \u00fcr\u00fcn gruplar\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fme s\u00fcreci de ayn\u0131 anda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyebilir.<\/p>\n

Cala, benzin piyasas\u0131nda dengelenmenin dizele g\u00f6re daha erken g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fini belirterek \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmede bulundu:<\/p>\n

“Bunun zamanlamas\u0131, Rusya ve Orta Do\u011fu’daki kapasitenin ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 yeniden devreye al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. Dizel piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ise mevsimsel talep, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck stoklar ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yedek rafineri kapasitesi nedeniyle k\u0131\u015f boyunca daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan piyasa olmaya devam etmesi muhtemel.”<\/p>\n

Buna g\u00f6re benzin fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n azalmas\u0131 i\u00e7in Rusya ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki rafineri kapasitelerinin yeniden devreye girmesi \u00f6nemli olacak.<\/p>\n

Dizelde ise yaln\u0131zca \u00fcretimin toparlanmas\u0131 yeterli olmayabilir. K\u0131\u015f talebi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck stoklar ve bak\u0131m sezonu nedeniyle piyasan\u0131n daha uzun s\u00fcre bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n

Benzin ve dizelde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u00dcr\u00fcn<\/th>\nBeklenen g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/th>\nTemel neden<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Benzin<\/strong><\/td>\nG\u00f6rece daha erken normalle\u015febilir<\/td>\nMevsimsel yap\u0131 ve \u00fcretimin toparlanma ihtimali<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dizel<\/strong><\/td>\nK\u0131\u015f boyunca daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan kalabilir<\/td>\nD\u00fc\u015f\u00fck stoklar, mevsimsel talep, Rusya ve K\u00f6rfez kaynakl\u0131 arz kayb\u0131<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jet yak\u0131t\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\nArz bask\u0131s\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131k<\/td>\nOrta distilat piyasas\u0131ndaki genel s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u00c7in’in ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasay\u0131 ne kadar rahatlatabilir?<\/h2>\n

K\u00fcresel sistemdeki \u00f6nemli denge unsurlar\u0131ndan biri \u00c7in.<\/p>\n

Y\u00fcksek rafineri marjlar\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019deki \u00fcreticilerin ihracat\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 cazip hale getirirken, \u00fclkede petrol \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc ihracat\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,5 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Cala, \u00c7in\u2019in daha fazla \u00fcr\u00fcn ihra\u00e7 etmesinin k\u00fcresel piyasadaki a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc azaltabilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n

Ancak bunun sorunu tamamen \u00e7\u00f6zmeyece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti:<\/p>\n

“Bu durum, Asya ve k\u00fcresel piyasalarda bir miktar rahatlama sa\u011flayabilir. Bununla birlikte, uzun s\u00fcreli y\u00fcksek rafineri marjlar\u0131 enflasyonist bask\u0131y\u0131 ve makroekonomik belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Kesintilerin s\u00fcrmesi halinde y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri, daralan marjlar ve jeopolitik \u00e7alkant\u0131n\u0131n bir araya gelmesi, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve mevcut \u00fcr\u00fcn arz\u0131 i\u00e7in rekabeti art\u0131rabilir.”<\/p>\n

Bu de\u011ferlendirmeye g\u00f6re \u00c7in\u2019den gelecek ilave ihracat k\u0131sa vadeli bir rahatlama yaratabilse de Rusya ve Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 kesintilerin uzun s\u00fcrmesi halinde tek ba\u015f\u0131na k\u00fcresel arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kapatmas\u0131 beklenmiyor.<\/p>\n

Rafineri marjlar\u0131nda ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f<\/h2>\n

K\u00fcresel arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n en \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 g\u00f6stergelerinden biri rafineri marjlar\u0131.<\/p>\n

Norve\u00e7 merkezli ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z ara\u015ft\u0131rma kurulu\u015fu Rystad Energy\u2019nin Emtia Piyasalar\u0131 Petrol B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnden Sorumlu Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Janiv Shah<\/strong>, rafineri marjlar\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel ortalamalar\u0131n olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n

Y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00f6zellikle dizel ve jet yak\u0131t\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Shah\u2019a g\u00f6re Avrupa ve Akdeniz piyasalar\u0131nda dizel marjlar\u0131 tarihsel ortalaman\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 4-5 kat\u0131na<\/strong> y\u00fckseldi ve son d\u00f6nemde rekor seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Benzin marjlar\u0131 da tarihsel ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde ancak dizelde g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fckseli\u015f kadar s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

Kompleks rafinerilerde toplam rafineri marjlar\u0131 ise normal seviyelerin yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 ila 4 kat\u0131na<\/strong> \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n

Rafineri marjlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u00dcr\u00fcn \/ rafineri tipi<\/th>\nTarihsel ortalamaya g\u00f6re durum<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Dizel \u2013 Avrupa ve Akdeniz<\/strong><\/td>\nYakla\u015f\u0131k 4-5 kat<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Benzin<\/strong><\/td>\nTarihsel ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kompleks rafineriler toplam marj\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\nYakla\u015f\u0131k 2-4 kat<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dizel ve jet yak\u0131t\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\nArt\u0131\u015f\u0131n en yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu \u00fcr\u00fcnler<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

IEA da a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda Atlantik Havzas\u0131 rafineri marjlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle dizel taraf\u0131ndaki sert y\u00fckseli\u015fin etkisiyle rekor seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildiriyor.<\/p>\n

Janiv Shah: Arz zincirinin bir\u00e7ok halkas\u0131nda ayn\u0131 anda sorun var<\/h2>\n

Shah, rafineri marjlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fin tek bir nedene ba\u011flanamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n

Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki rafineri kay\u0131plar\u0131, deniz ticaretindeki aksakl\u0131klar, Rus rafinerilerindeki hasar, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck stoklar, rafineri bak\u0131mlar\u0131, daha \u00f6nce kapat\u0131lan tesisler ve y\u00fcksek navlun maliyetlerinin ayn\u0131 anda devreye girdi\u011fini anlatan Shah \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi:<\/p>\n

“Bu art\u0131\u015f, piyasada kolayl\u0131kla temin edilebilen rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte azalmas\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Orta Do\u011fu’daki rafineri kesintileri ile H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ve K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz’deki ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131, hem rafinerilere ham petrol teslimatlar\u0131n\u0131 hem de petrol \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc ihracat\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Rusya’daki rafineri hasarlar\u0131 ve ihracat k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 da uluslararas\u0131 piyasadan \u00f6nemli bir dizel kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekti. ABD ve Avrupa’da orta distilat stoklar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde bulunmas\u0131, arz kesintilerine kar\u015f\u0131 piyasada \u00e7ok az bir tampon b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Rafineri bak\u0131mlar\u0131 ve daha \u00f6nce ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen kal\u0131c\u0131 kapasite kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da sistemdeki yedek i\u015fleme kapasitesini azaltt\u0131. \u00c7in ve di\u011fer Asya \u00fclkelerindeki \u00fcreticiler ise ihracat\u0131 kontrol ediyor veya i\u00e7 piyasaya \u00f6ncelik veriyor. Son olarak, y\u00fcksek navlun ve sigorta maliyetleri ile daha uzun ta\u015f\u0131ma rotalar\u0131, alternatif kargolar\u0131n teslim fiyat\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.”<\/p>\n

Shah\u2019\u0131n s\u0131ralad\u0131\u011f\u0131 unsurlar, petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri piyasas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n yaln\u0131zca \u00fcretim miktar\u0131ndan de\u011fil, \u00fcretimden ta\u015f\u0131maya kadar uzanan tedarik zincirinin tamam\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Arz krizini b\u00fcy\u00fcten 7 temel fakt\u00f6r<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
No<\/th>\nFakt\u00f6r<\/th>\nPiyasaya etkisi<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/strong><\/td>\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019daki rafineri kesintileri<\/td>\nRafine \u00fcr\u00fcn \u00fcretimini azalt\u0131yor<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/strong><\/td>\nH\u00fcrm\u00fcz ve K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz’deki ak\u0131\u015f k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131<\/td>\nHam petrol ve \u00fcr\u00fcn sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/strong><\/td>\nRus rafinerilerindeki hasarlar<\/td>\n\u00d6zellikle dizel arz\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/strong><\/td>\nABD ve Avrupa’daki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck orta distilat stoklar\u0131<\/td>\nPiyasan\u0131n krizlere kar\u015f\u0131 tamponunu azalt\u0131yor<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/strong><\/td>\nMevsimsel rafineri bak\u0131mlar\u0131<\/td>\nKullan\u0131labilir \u00fcretim kapasitesini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00c7in ve Asya’daki ihracat politikalar\u0131<\/td>\nK\u00fcresel piyasaya \u00e7\u0131kabilecek \u00fcr\u00fcn miktar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabiliyor<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/strong><\/td>\nArtan navlun ve sigorta maliyetleri<\/td>\nAlternatif kaynaklardan \u00fcr\u00fcn getirmenin maliyetini y\u00fckseltiyor<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

As\u0131l mesele ham petrol de\u011fil, do\u011fru \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc do\u011fru yerde \u00fcretebilmek<\/h2>\n

K\u00fcresel enerji piyasas\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan son tablo, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n tek ba\u015f\u0131na benzin ve dizel piyasas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klamak i\u00e7in yeterli olmayabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Petrol\u00fcn yer alt\u0131nda bulunmas\u0131 veya d\u00fcnya piyasas\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 ile bu petrol\u00fcn rafinerilerde i\u015flenerek motorin, benzin, jet yak\u0131t\u0131 ve di\u011fer \u00fcr\u00fcnlere d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclmesi iki farkl\u0131 a\u015fama.<\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6nemli b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ikinci a\u015famada ya\u015fan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Rafineriler y\u00fcksek kapasiteyle \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken Rusya ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki kesintiler \u00fcretim kabiliyetini azalt\u0131yor. Avrupa ve ABD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fcr\u00fcn stoklar\u0131 ise yeni bir kesintiyi kar\u015f\u0131layabilecek tamponu zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Buna y\u00fcksek navlun ve sigorta maliyetleri ile ticaret rotalar\u0131n\u0131n uzamas\u0131 da eklenince bir b\u00f6lgede mevcut olan \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan ba\u015fka bir pazara ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n maliyeti y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n

G\u00f6zler k\u0131\u015f aylar\u0131nda olacak<\/h2>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri piyasas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan birka\u00e7 ba\u015fl\u0131k belirleyici olacak.<\/p>\n

Rusya\u2019daki zarar g\u00f6ren rafineri kapasitesinin ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 yeniden devreye al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki rafineri ve sevkiyat ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fme h\u0131z\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in ihracat\u0131 ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 ve Avrupa ile ABD\u2019deki planl\u0131 bak\u0131m sezonunun arz \u00fczerindeki etkisi yak\u0131ndan izlenecek.<\/p>\n

\u00d6zellikle dizelde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck stoklar\u0131n mevsimsel talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla birle\u015fmesi, piyasadaki k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131ran ana unsur olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan tabloya g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel petrol piyasas\u0131ndaki soru art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca \u201cD\u00fcnyada yeterli ham petrol var m\u0131?\u201d<\/strong> de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

Daha kritik soru, \u201cBu petrol, ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan zamanda, ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan b\u00f6lgede ve yeterli miktarda motorin, benzin ve jet yak\u0131t\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclebilecek mi?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Mevcut rafineri kapasitesi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck stoklar ve s\u00fcren jeopolitik kesintiler bu soruya ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fin \u00f6zellikle dizel piyasas\u0131nda 2026-2027 k\u0131\u015f\u0131na girilirken<\/strong> y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

K\u00fcresel petrol piyasas\u0131nda sorun art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca ham petrol\u00fcn bulunabilirli\u011fi de\u011fil, ham petrol\u00fcn benzin, motorin ve jet yak\u0131t\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclebilece\u011fi rafineri kapasitesinin daralmas\u0131. ABD\/\u0130srail-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 ile Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n rafineri faaliyetleri ve \u00fcr\u00fcn sevkiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde olu\u015fturdu\u011fu kay\u0131plar, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fcr\u00fcn stoklar\u0131, mevsimsel talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yedek kapasiteyle birle\u015ferek k\u00fcresel petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri piyasas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 derinle\u015ftiriyor. Avrupa ve Akdeniz\u2019de dizel rafineri marjlar\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel ortalamalar\u0131n 4-5 kat\u0131na kadar y\u00fckseldi\u011fi belirtilirken, uzmanlar \u00f6zellikle dizel piyasas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131\u015f boyunca k\u0131r\u0131lgan kalabilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":31206,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[751],"class_list":["post-50954","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-petrol"],"yoast_head":"\nK\u00fcresel petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde arz alarm\u0131 - Merceknet Haber<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/09\/19\/kuresel-petrol-urunlerinde-arz-alarmi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"K\u00fcresel petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde arz alarm\u0131 - Merceknet Haber\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"K\u00fcresel petrol piyasas\u0131nda sorun art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca ham petrol\u00fcn bulunabilirli\u011fi de\u011fil, ham petrol\u00fcn benzin, motorin ve jet yak\u0131t\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclebilece\u011fi rafineri kapasitesinin daralmas\u0131. ABD\/\u0130srail-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 ile Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n rafineri faaliyetleri ve \u00fcr\u00fcn sevkiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde olu\u015fturdu\u011fu kay\u0131plar, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fcr\u00fcn stoklar\u0131, mevsimsel talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yedek kapasiteyle birle\u015ferek k\u00fcresel petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri piyasas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 derinle\u015ftiriyor. 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