T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131 gerilemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken vatanda\u015f\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck ya\u015famda en fazla hissetti\u011fi alanlardan biri olan g\u0131da, enflasyonun merkezindeki yerini koruyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in A\u011fustos 2026 verilerine g\u00f6re t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1,84<\/strong>, y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 31,51<\/strong> artt\u0131. Ancak g\u0131da ve alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7eceklerde y\u0131ll\u0131k fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 33,79<\/strong> ile genel enflasyonun \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n Daha \u00f6nemlisi, g\u0131da ve alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecekler grubu y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyona 8,12 puanla en b\u00fcy\u00fck katk\u0131y\u0131 yapan harcama grubu<\/strong> oldu. Ula\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n katk\u0131s\u0131 5,94, konut, su, elektrik, gaz ve di\u011fer yak\u0131tlar\u0131n katk\u0131s\u0131 ise 5,01 puan d\u00fczeyinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n Bu rakamlar, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de enflasyonu kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmenin yaln\u0131zca para politikas\u0131yla de\u011fil, g\u0131da \u00fcretiminin yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131yla m\u00fccadele edilmesiyle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fini bir kez daha g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yaln\u0131zca y\u00fczde 0,22<\/strong> oldu. Temmuzda y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u0131da enflasyonu y\u00fczde 37,53<\/strong> seviyesindeyken a\u011fustosta y\u00fczde 33,79\u2019a geriledi.<\/p>\n \u0130lk bak\u0131\u015fta bu geli\u015fme olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de tar\u0131msal fiyatlar\u0131n mevsimsellikten, \u00fcr\u00fcn arz\u0131ndan, hava ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan ve hasat d\u00f6nemlerinden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde etkilenmesi nedeniyle tek ayl\u0131k rakamlar kal\u0131c\u0131 e\u011filimi g\u00f6stermeye yetmiyor.<\/p>\n Nitekim \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131nda son birka\u00e7 ayda g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert de\u011fi\u015fimler de bu oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n Tar\u0131m \u00dcr\u00fcnleri \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 martta y\u00fczde 36,09<\/strong>, nisanda y\u00fczde 42,53<\/strong>, may\u0131sta y\u00fczde 43,08<\/strong> iken haziranda bir anda y\u00fczde 9,55\u2019e<\/strong> geriledi. Temmuz ay\u0131nda ise yeniden y\u00fczde 18,81\u2019e<\/strong> \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n Bu sert de\u011fi\u015fimde baz etkisi, mevsimsel \u00fcretim miktarlar\u0131 ve \u00fcr\u00fcn gruplar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6nemli rol oynuyor. Ancak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan tablo ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00fcreticinin sat\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirlik sorunu ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n \u00dcreticinin esas sorunu tarladan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn fiyat\u0131ndan \u00f6nce, \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc yeti\u015ftirebilmek i\u00e7in katland\u0131\u011f\u0131 maliyetlerde ba\u015fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 son Tar\u0131msal Girdi Fiyat Endeksi verilerine g\u00f6re haziran ay\u0131nda tar\u0131msal girdi fiyatlar\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0,92 gerilese de y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 32,06 artt\u0131<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Tar\u0131mda kullan\u0131lan mal ve hizmetlerin y\u0131ll\u0131k maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 33,88<\/strong> olurken tar\u0131msal yat\u0131r\u0131ma katk\u0131 sa\u011flayan mal ve hizmetlerde art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 21,49<\/strong> seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n En \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 rakam ise g\u00fcbrede g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n G\u00fcbre ve toprak geli\u015ftiricilerin fiyat\u0131 bir y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 50,99 y\u00fckseldi.<\/strong><\/p>\n Haziranda girdilerin ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 0,92 gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131 bu nedenle \u00fcretici a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ek bir maliyet d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla \u00fcretim maliyeti h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00fc\u00e7te bire yak\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n Dahas\u0131 ayn\u0131 ayda, yani Haziran 2026\u2019da tar\u0131msal girdi fiyatlar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 32,06<\/strong> artarken tar\u0131msal \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f yaln\u0131zca y\u00fczde 9,55<\/strong> seviyesinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n Bu kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde \u00e7ift\u00e7inin k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anlam\u0131na gelmez; \u00fcr\u00fcn, verim, destek ve sat\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131 farkl\u0131d\u0131r. Ancak maliyetin sat\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerin \u00fcreticinin marj\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layabilece\u011fi, kullan\u0131lan g\u00fcbre ve di\u011fer girdilerin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na, \u00fcr\u00fcn deseninin de\u011fi\u015ftirilmesine veya yeni \u00fcretim kararlar\u0131n\u0131n ertelenmesine yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n Ve \u00fcretimde bug\u00fcnk\u00fc maliyet sorununun, sonraki sezonun arz problemi haline d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fme riski de tam burada ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye Ziraat Odalar\u0131 Birli\u011finin A\u011fustos 2026\u2019da sahadan derledi\u011fi girdi fiyatlar\u0131, maliyet bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcreticiye nas\u0131l yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha somut g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n TZOB verilerine g\u00f6re yaln\u0131zca temmuzdan a\u011fustosa ge\u00e7erken mazot y\u00fczde 7<\/strong>, DAP g\u00fcbresi y\u00fczde 4,5<\/strong>, 20.20.0 g\u00fcbre y\u00fczde 4,4<\/strong> artt\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k amonyum nitratta ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 5,6 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n Bu farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketler bile tar\u0131msal girdilerdeki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n boyutunu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n \u00c7ift\u00e7i ekim karar\u0131 verirken maliyetinin birka\u00e7 ay sonra nerede olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, g\u00fcbrenin, mazotun, elektri\u011fin ve yemin hangi seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmekte zorlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n \u00dcretim planlamas\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilmesi i\u00e7in de \u00f6nce maliyetin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n G\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f yaln\u0131zca \u00e7ift\u00e7inin \u00fcretim maliyetinden olu\u015fmuyor.<\/p>\n \u00dcr\u00fcn tarladan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra;<\/p>\n nakliye, depolama, so\u011fuk zincir, \u00fcr\u00fcn kay\u0131plar\u0131, ambalajlama, hal ve komisyon s\u00fcre\u00e7leri, finansman maliyeti, i\u015f\u00e7ilik ve perakende i\u015fletme giderleri devreye giriyor.<\/p>\n Enerji ve akaryak\u0131ttaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n hemen b\u00fct\u00fcn bu a\u015famalara girdi maliyeti olarak yans\u0131mas\u0131, \u00fcretici fiyat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n market raf\u0131nda daha da b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine neden olabiliyor.<\/p>\n Bunun en dikkat \u00e7ekici \u00f6rne\u011fini \u00fcretici-market fiyat farklar\u0131nda g\u00f6rmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n TZOB\u2019un A\u011fustos 2026 ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00fcretici ile market aras\u0131ndaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat fark\u0131 y\u00fczde 748,4 ile limonda<\/strong> g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n \u00dcreticide kilogram\u0131 10 lira<\/strong> olan limon markette ortalama 84,84 liraya<\/strong> sat\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n Havu\u00e7ta fark y\u00fczde 380,3<\/strong>, elmada y\u00fczde 377,9<\/strong>, kabakta y\u00fczde 240,9<\/strong>, ye\u015fil so\u011fanda y\u00fczde 239,4<\/strong> oldu.<\/p>\n Ba\u015fka bir ifadeyle limon \u00fcretici fiyat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 8,5 kat\u0131na<\/strong>, havu\u00e7 ve elma ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 4,8 kat\u0131na<\/strong> market raf\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n Bu oranlar\u0131 do\u011frudan \u201cmarket k\u00e2r\u0131\u201d olarak de\u011ferlendirmek do\u011fru olmaz. \u00dcretici fiyat\u0131 ile perakende fiyat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n tamam\u0131 perakendecinin kazanc\u0131 de\u011fildir; fire, kalite s\u0131n\u0131flamas\u0131, ta\u015f\u0131ma, i\u015f\u00e7ilik, depolama, ambalajlama ve di\u011fer ticari giderler de bu aral\u0131kta yer al\u0131r.<\/p>\n Ancak baz\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde fark\u0131n ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklere ula\u015fmas\u0131, \u00fcretim kadar da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m zincirinin de g\u0131da enflasyonu a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan incelenmesi gerekti\u011fini<\/strong> a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n G\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131k g\u00fcnl\u00fck hayat a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da son derece y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n TZOB verilerine g\u00f6re temmuz ay\u0131nda markette sivri biberin fiyat\u0131 bir ayda y\u00fczde 86,2<\/strong> artarken, karpuzun fiyat\u0131 y\u00fczde 49<\/strong> geriledi.<\/p>\n A\u011fustosta ise markette en \u00e7ok y\u00fckselen \u00fcr\u00fcn y\u00fczde 37,8 ile yumurta<\/strong>, en fazla ucuzlayan \u00fcr\u00fcn y\u00fczde 34,2 ile sivri biber<\/strong> oldu.<\/p>\n Bir temel g\u0131da \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn bir ay y\u00fczde 80\u2019i a\u015fan oranda pahalan\u0131p takip eden ay sert bi\u00e7imde ucuzlayabilmesi, t\u00fcketici a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan fiyat belirsizli\u011fi yarat\u0131rken \u00e7ift\u00e7i i\u00e7in de gelecek sezon ne ekece\u011fine karar vermeyi zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n \u00dcretici y\u00fcksek fiyat g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fcr\u00fcne y\u00f6neldi\u011finde bir sonraki sezon arz fazlas\u0131, fiyat \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve zarar; \u00fcretimden \u00e7ekildi\u011finde ise arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve sert fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya\u015fanmas\u0131 riski bulunuyor.<\/p>\n Bu nedenle g\u0131da enflasyonunun \u00f6nemli sorunlar\u0131ndan biri yaln\u0131zca fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fcksekli\u011fi de\u011fil, fiyatlar\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemezli\u011fi.<\/strong><\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de g\u0131dan\u0131n \u00f6nemi yaln\u0131zca T\u00dcFE sepetindeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan kaynaklanm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n G\u0131da zorunlu bir harcama kalemi ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli ailelerin b\u00fct\u00e7esindeki pay\u0131 \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in 2025 Hanehalk\u0131 B\u00fct\u00e7e Ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye genelinde haneler t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n ortalama y\u00fczde 17,3\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc<\/strong> g\u0131da ve alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7eceklere ay\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n Ancak gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n en alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 20\u2019lik kesimde g\u0131dan\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7edeki pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 29,2\u2019ye<\/strong> \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n En y\u00fcksek gelirli y\u00fczde 20\u2019lik grupta ise bu oran yaln\u0131zca y\u00fczde 12,4.<\/strong><\/p>\n Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ayn\u0131 g\u0131da zamm\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn vatanda\u015flar\u0131 ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde etkilemiyor.<\/p>\n Geliri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir hane, b\u00fct\u00e7esinin yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te birini g\u0131daya ay\u0131rmak zorunda kal\u0131rken y\u00fcksek gelirli bir hane i\u00e7in g\u0131dan\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7edeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bunun yar\u0131s\u0131ndan bile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p>\n Bu nedenle g\u0131da enflasyonu ayn\u0131 zamanda gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ve sosyal refah sorunu.<\/strong><\/p>\n G\u0131da fiyat\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirlinin harcanabilir gelirini do\u011frudan azalt\u0131yor; hane daha ucuz \u00fcr\u00fcnlere y\u00f6nelmek, kaliteyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek veya ba\u015fka ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131ndan k\u0131smak zorunda kalabiliyor.<\/p>\n 2027-2029 Orta Vadeli Program\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131na \u00f6zel bir a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermesi tesad\u00fcf de\u011fil.<\/p>\n Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Cevdet Y\u0131lmaz, program\u0131n tan\u0131t\u0131m\u0131nda g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc politikalar\u0131n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde devreye sokulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; \u00fcretim planlamas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi, verimlili\u011fin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131yla fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n hedeflendi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n OVP\u2019ye g\u00f6re temel ama\u00e7, g\u0131da arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek kaliteli g\u0131daya makul fiyatlarla eri\u015fimi sa\u011flamak.<\/strong><\/p>\n Bunun i\u00e7in stratejik \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde arz-talep dengesi, yeterlilik d\u00fczeyi, su k\u0131s\u0131t\u0131 ve b\u00f6lgesel \u00fcretim potansiyeli dikkate al\u0131narak \u00fcretim planlamas\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclecek.<\/p>\n \u0130thalat, ihracat, i\u00e7 talep ve da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m zincirindeki hareketler erken uyar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla izlenecek.<\/p>\n G\u00fcbre, bitki koruma \u00fcr\u00fcnleri, a\u015f\u0131 ve benzeri stratejik girdilerde ise yerli \u00fcretim kapasitesinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131<\/strong> \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yeni OVP\u2019de g\u0131da arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve tar\u0131msal dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 alt\u0131nda girdide yerlile\u015fmeye \u00f6nceki programlara g\u00f6re daha belirgin bir a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verildi.<\/p>\n Program ayr\u0131ca dijitalle\u015fme, yapay zek\u00e2 ve hassas tar\u0131m uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131; verim tahmini, hastal\u0131k ve zararl\u0131lar\u0131n erken tespiti i\u00e7in izleme sistemleri kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n Tar\u0131ma dayal\u0131 sanayinin ham madde ihtiyac\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u00f6zle\u015fmeli \u00fcretim modellerinin yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, organize tar\u0131m b\u00f6lgelerinin geli\u015ftirilmesi ve bu alanlarda yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 da program\u0131n par\u00e7alar\u0131 aras\u0131nda.<\/p>\n OVP\u2019de g\u00fcbre, ila\u00e7 ve a\u015f\u0131 gibi girdilerde yerli kapasitenin \u00f6zellikle vurgulanmas\u0131, tar\u0131m\u0131n d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 maliyet \u015foklar\u0131na ne kadar a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funun da g\u00f6stergesi.<\/p>\n \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00fcretici yaln\u0131zca mahsul \u00fcretmiyor.<\/p>\n \u00dcretmek i\u00e7in mazot, elektrik, g\u00fcbre, yem, tohum, ila\u00e7, sulama, makine, finansman ve i\u015f\u00e7ilik sat\u0131n al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Bu kalemlerin \u00f6nemli b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcndeki fiyat hareketi kur, enerji ve uluslararas\u0131 emtia piyasalar\u0131ndan etkileniyor.<\/p>\n Girdilerin fiyat\u0131 kontrol edilemez ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece \u00fcreticiye yaln\u0131zca \u201cdaha fazla \u00fcret\u201d \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapmak tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli olmayabilir.<\/p>\n \u00dcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7ift\u00e7inin \u00f6nce \u00f6n\u00fcndeki sezonun maliyetini hesaplayabilmesi ve \u00fcretti\u011fi \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir gelir sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131na inanmas\u0131<\/strong> gerekiyor.<\/p>\n Bu nedenle maliyet sorununun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc, destek miktarlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde g\u00fcbre ve yem sanayisinde yerlile\u015fme, enerji maliyetlerinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi, sulama yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n tamamlanmas\u0131, tar\u0131msal finansman\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirli\u011fi ve \u00fcretim planlamas\u0131n\u0131n piyasa verisiyle e\u015f zamanl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n OVP\u2019de g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n arz-talep, d\u0131\u015f ticaret ve da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m zincirindeki geli\u015fmeler \u00fczerinden erken uyar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla izlenmesi \u00f6nemli bir hedef.<\/p>\n Ancak bir erken uyar\u0131 sistemi, fiyat\u0131 yaln\u0131zca tespit eder; as\u0131l belirleyici olan uyar\u0131 geldi\u011finde hangi politikan\u0131n ne h\u0131zla uygulanaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00d6rne\u011fin belli bir \u00fcr\u00fcnde arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 birka\u00e7 ay \u00f6nceden g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyorsa \u00fcretim deste\u011finin zaman\u0131nda verilmesi, gerekiyorsa d\u0131\u015f ticaret politikas\u0131n\u0131n erkenden d\u00fczenlenmesi ve stok y\u00f6netiminin yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n Aksi halde arz sorunu market fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131d\u0131ktan sonra ithalat kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 t\u00fcketici fiyat\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrse bile \u00e7ift\u00e7inin bir sonraki sezon \u00fcretim karar\u0131n\u0131 bozabilecek ba\u015fka bir belirsizlik yaratabiliyor.<\/p>\n Bu nedenle \u00fcretim planlamas\u0131 ile ithalat-ihracat kararlar\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 politika \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmesi kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n \u00d6zellikle sebze ve meyvede \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn tarladan t\u00fcketiciye ula\u015fmas\u0131na kadar ge\u00e7en s\u00fcre\u00e7te olu\u015fan kay\u0131plar, g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131sal unsurlar\u0131ndan biri.<\/p>\n Depolama kapasitesinin yetersiz oldu\u011fu, so\u011fuk zincirin kesintiye u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131 veya lojistik maliyetinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir sistemde \u00fcretimin artmas\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na raf fiyat\u0131n\u0131 istenen d\u00fczeyde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyebilir.<\/p>\n Patates, so\u011fan, meyve ve sebze gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde depolama kapasitesi ayn\u0131 zamanda fiyat istikrar arac\u0131.<\/p>\n \u00dcretimin bol oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc koruyamayan bir sistem, hasat d\u00f6neminde fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmesine; birka\u00e7 ay sonra \u00fcr\u00fcn azald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckselmesine neden olabiliyor.<\/p>\n Bu nedenle tar\u0131msal altyap\u0131 yaln\u0131zca sulama ve \u00fcretim alanlar\u0131ndan de\u011fil; lisansl\u0131 depoculuk, so\u011fuk hava tesisleri, i\u015fleme, lojistik ve pazarlama zincirinden olu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n Yeni OVP, 2026 y\u0131l sonu enflasyonunu y\u00fczde 28,4<\/strong> olarak tahmin ediyor. Enflasyonun 2027\u2019de y\u00fczde 21<\/strong>, 2028\u2019de y\u00fczde 13,5<\/strong> ve 2029\u2019da y\u00fczde 9\u2019a<\/strong> gerilemesi hedefleniyor.<\/p>\n A\u011fustos itibar\u0131yla y\u0131ll\u0131k t\u00fcketici enflasyonu y\u00fczde 31,51 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n G\u0131dan\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyona tek ba\u015f\u0131na 8,12 puan katk\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 istikrar sa\u011flanmadan bu hedeflere ula\u015fman\u0131n zorla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n Para politikas\u0131 talebi yava\u015flatabilir, kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rabilir ve beklentileri y\u00f6netebilir.<\/p>\n Ama kurakl\u0131k nedeniyle domates \u00fcretimi d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, \u00e7ift\u00e7i g\u00fcbreyi pahal\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in gerekti\u011fi kadar kullanamad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda veya \u00fcr\u00fcn tarlada 10 lirayken da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m zincirinin sonunda 85 liraya ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frudan \u00e7\u00f6zebilece\u011fi alan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n \u0130\u015fte OVP\u2019nin \u201carz y\u00f6nl\u00fc politika\u201d vurgusunun \u00f6nemi burada ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Yeni program\u0131n tar\u0131msal girdilerde yerli \u00fcretim, \u00fcretim planlamas\u0131, veri altyap\u0131s\u0131, s\u00f6zle\u015fmeli \u00fcretim, yapay zek\u00e2, iklim direnci ve da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m zincirini ayn\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evede ele almas\u0131 \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n Ancak mevcut rakamlar sorunun ertelenmeyecek kadar g\u00fcncel oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n Resmi Tar\u0131m-GFE verisinde y\u0131ll\u0131k girdi maliyeti y\u00fczde 32\u2019yi a\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Sahadaki A\u011fustos fiyatlar\u0131nda mazot y\u00fczde 58, baz\u0131 g\u00fcbrelerde y\u00fczde 60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde pahalanm\u0131\u015f. \u00dcretici ile market fiyat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark baz\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde y\u00fczde 700\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabiliyor. G\u0131da enflasyonu ise genel enflasyondan daha y\u00fcksek seyrediyor.<\/p>\n Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde ba\u015far\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fc yaln\u0131zca ka\u00e7 yeni sistem veya program a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 olmayacak.<\/p>\n As\u0131l \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc;<\/p>\n \u00e7ift\u00e7inin bir sonraki \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir maliyetle \u00fcretip \u00fcretemedi\u011fi, \u00fcretici ile market aras\u0131ndaki fiyat fark\u0131n\u0131n daral\u0131p daralmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve vatanda\u015f\u0131n g\u0131daya gelirini a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rmadan eri\u015fip eri\u015femedi\u011fi olacak.<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de g\u0131da enflasyonu art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn problemi de\u011fil.<\/p>\n Enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleden gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na, yoksulluktan \u00fcretim g\u00fcvenli\u011fine kadar ekonominin tamam\u0131n\u0131 ilgilendiren temel bir yap\u0131sal mesele haline gelmi\u015f durumda.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de enflasyonla m\u00fccadelenin en kritik cephelerinden biri yeniden g\u0131da oldu. A\u011fustosta genel t\u00fcketici enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 31,51 olurken g\u0131da ve alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7eceklerde fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 33,79\u2019a ula\u015ft\u0131 ve g\u0131da tek ba\u015f\u0131na y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyona 8,12 puanla en y\u00fcksek katk\u0131y\u0131 yapt\u0131. Tarlada ise \u00fcreticinin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 32\u2019yi a\u015fan genel girdi maliyeti, y\u00fczde 50,99 y\u00fckselen g\u00fcbre grubu ve baz\u0131 g\u00fcbre \u00e7e\u015fitlerinde y\u00fczde 60\u2019\u0131, mazotta y\u00fczde 57\u2019yi a\u015fan art\u0131\u015flar bulunuyor. Ayn\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00fcretici ile market fiyat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n\u0131n baz\u0131 kalemlerde 8,5 kata kadar \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, sorunun yaln\u0131zca \u00fcretim maliyetinden ibaret olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; lojistik, depolama, arac\u0131l\u0131k, planlama ve da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m zincirindeki yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131n da fiyatlar\u0131 etkiledi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. 2027-2029 Orta Vadeli Program\u0131, maliyetleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme, girdide yerlile\u015fme, \u00fcretim planlamas\u0131, erken uyar\u0131 sistemi, yapay zek\u00e2 ve s\u00f6zle\u015fmeli \u00fcretim gibi kapsaml\u0131 ad\u0131mlar \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ancak mevcut veriler, g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 istikrar i\u00e7in hedef a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n \u00f6tesinde \u00fcretimden market raf\u0131na kadar b\u00fct\u00fcn zincirin yeniden ele al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":49068,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,7],"tags":[715],"class_list":["post-49067","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-tarim","tag-gidaenflasyonu"],"yoast_head":"\nA\u011fustosta g\u0131da sakinle\u015fti ama sorun bitmedi<\/h3>\n
Girdilerde ise tablo \u00e7ok daha sert<\/h2>\n
G\u00fcbre y\u00fczde 61, mazot y\u00fczde 58 artt\u0131<\/h2>\n
\n\n
\n Tar\u0131msal girdi<\/th>\n A\u011fustos 2025<\/th>\n A\u011fustos 2026<\/th>\n Y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n \n Amonyum nitrat<\/td>\n 13.445 TL\/ton<\/td>\n 21.672 TL\/ton<\/td>\n %61,2<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Mazot<\/td>\n 53,09 TL\/litre<\/td>\n 83,83 TL\/litre<\/td>\n %57,9<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Amonyum s\u00fclfat<\/td>\n 12.251 TL\/ton<\/td>\n 19.010 TL\/ton<\/td>\n %55,2<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Besi yemi<\/td>\n 10.352 TL\/ton<\/td>\n 13.921 TL\/ton<\/td>\n %34,5<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 20.20.0 g\u00fcbre<\/td>\n 22.109 TL\/ton<\/td>\n 29.333 TL\/ton<\/td>\n %32,7<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n S\u00fct yemi<\/td>\n 11.407 TL\/ton<\/td>\n 15.039 TL\/ton<\/td>\n %31,8<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Bitki koruma \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc<\/td>\n 900 TL<\/td>\n 1.150 TL<\/td>\n %27,8<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n DAP g\u00fcbre<\/td>\n 35.124 TL\/ton<\/td>\n 44.002 TL\/ton<\/td>\n %25,3<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Elektrik<\/td>\n 377,21 kr\/kWh<\/td>\n 472,08 kr\/kWh<\/td>\n %25,1<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \u00dcRE<\/td>\n 26.424 TL\/ton<\/td>\n 27.330 TL\/ton<\/td>\n %3,4<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Tarladaki maliyet markete nas\u0131l ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131yor?<\/h2>\n
Bir ayda markette y\u00fczde 86\u2019l\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimler g\u00f6r\u00fclebiliyor<\/h3>\n
Enflasyonun merkezinde neden g\u0131da var?<\/h2>\n
OVP de sorunun merkezine g\u0131day\u0131 ald\u0131<\/h2>\n
As\u0131l mesele girdiyi \u00fcretmeden g\u0131day\u0131 ucuzlatman\u0131n zor olmas\u0131<\/h2>\n
Erken uyar\u0131 sistemi tek ba\u015f\u0131na yetmez<\/h2>\n
So\u011fuk zincir ve depolama da en az tarla kadar \u00f6nemli<\/h2>\n
Enflasyon hedefi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da g\u0131da belirleyici<\/h2>\n
Program do\u011fru sorunu tarif ediyor, \u015fimdi uygulama s\u0131nav\u0131 ba\u015flayacak<\/h2>\n