{"id":48579,"date":"2026-09-06T19:02:23","date_gmt":"2026-09-06T16:02:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/?p=48579"},"modified":"2026-09-06T19:11:35","modified_gmt":"2026-09-06T16:11:35","slug":"2029da-turkiye-nasil-bir-ekonomi-olacak-ovpnin-rakamlari-umut-veriyor-asil-soru-vatandas-ne-hissedecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/09\/06\/2029da-turkiye-nasil-bir-ekonomi-olacak-ovpnin-rakamlari-umut-veriyor-asil-soru-vatandas-ne-hissedecek\/","title":{"rendered":"2029\u2019da T\u00fcrkiye nas\u0131l bir ekonomi olacak? OVP\u2019nin rakamlar\u0131 umut veriyor, as\u0131l soru vatanda\u015f ne hissedecek?"},"content":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2027-2029 d\u00f6nemine ili\u015fkin yeni Orta Vadeli Program\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130lk bak\u0131\u015fta rakamlar dikkat \u00e7ekici: Enflasyon y\u00fczde 9\u2019a inecek, b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kacak, ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir 25 bin dolar\u0131 a\u015facak, ihracat b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek, i\u015fsizlik gerileyecek.<\/p>\n

Peki b\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse T\u00fcrkiye nas\u0131l bir \u00fclke olacak?<\/p>\n

Daha \u00f6nemlisi, vatanda\u015f bunu cebinde hissedecek mi?<\/p>\n

Bence yeni OVP\u2019yi as\u0131l bu iki soruyla okumak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

Program\u0131n temel hedefleri \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
G\u00f6sterge<\/th>\n2026<\/th>\n2027<\/th>\n2028<\/th>\n2029<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcme<\/td>\n%3,3<\/td>\n%4,2<\/td>\n%4,6<\/td>\n%5,0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Enflasyon<\/td>\n%28,4<\/td>\n%21,0<\/td>\n%13,5<\/td>\n%9,0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u0130\u015fsizlik<\/td>\n%8,1<\/td>\n%8,0<\/td>\n%7,8<\/td>\n%7,6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cari a\u00e7\u0131k\/GSYH<\/td>\n%2,6<\/td>\n%1,9<\/td>\n%1,8<\/td>\n%1,6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u0130hracat<\/td>\n282 milyar $<\/td>\n292 milyar $<\/td>\n302,5 milyar $<\/td>\n316 milyar $<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u0130thalat<\/td>\n387 milyar $<\/td>\n397 milyar $<\/td>\n411 milyar $<\/td>\n426 milyar $<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Bu tablo tek ba\u015f\u0131na bile program\u0131n iddias\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

En dikkat \u00e7ekici hedef enflasyon.<\/p>\n

2026 sonunda y\u00fczde 28,4 olmas\u0131 beklenen enflasyonun 2027\u2019de y\u00fczde 21\u2019e, 2028\u2019de y\u00fczde 13,5\u2019e ve 2029\u2019da y\u00fczde 9\u2019a gerilemesi hedefleniyor.<\/p>\n

E\u011fer bu hedef tutarsa T\u00fcrkiye yeniden tek haneli enflasyon ortam\u0131na d\u00f6necek.<\/p>\n

Ama burada \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir ayr\u0131m var.<\/p>\n

Enflasyonun y\u00fczde 9\u2019a d\u00fc\u015fmesi, fiyatlar\u0131n ucuzlayaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Fiyatlar artmaya devam edecek; yaln\u0131zca daha yava\u015f artacak.<\/p>\n

Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla vatanda\u015f\u0131n ger\u00e7ek refah\u0131n\u0131 belirleyecek \u015fey enflasyon oran\u0131ndan \u00e7ok maa\u015flar\u0131n, \u00fccretlerin ve gelirlerin fiyatlardan daha h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131p artmayaca\u011f\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n

OVP\u2019nin ikinci \u00f6nemli iddias\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmede.<\/p>\n

2026\u2019da y\u00fczde 3,3 olmas\u0131 beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2027\u2019de y\u00fczde 4,2\u2019ye, 2028\u2019de y\u00fczde 4,6\u2019ya ve 2029\u2019da y\u00fczde 5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 hedefleniyor.<\/p>\n

Burada \u00f6nemli olan yaln\u0131zca b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 de\u011fil, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin kayna\u011f\u0131.<\/p>\n

Program, t\u00fcketime dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme yerine yat\u0131r\u0131m, \u00fcretim, teknoloji ve verimlili\u011fi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Orta-y\u00fcksek ve y\u00fcksek teknolojili yat\u0131r\u0131mlar i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k 750 milyar liral\u0131k Yat\u0131r\u0131m Taahh\u00fctl\u00fc Avans Kredisi (YTAK) deste\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Sanayiye 250 milyar liral\u0131k ilave finansman deste\u011fi sa\u011flanmas\u0131, y\u00fcksek ve orta-y\u00fcksek teknolojili yat\u0131r\u0131mlar i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k 750 milyar liral\u0131k YTAK kredisi ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n par\u00e7as\u0131.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan do\u011fru y\u00f6n de burada.<\/p>\n

\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc daha b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomi olmak ba\u015fka, daha de\u011ferli \u00fcretim yapan ekonomi olmak ba\u015fka.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ger\u00e7ek s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 daha fazla otomobil, makine, yaz\u0131l\u0131m, savunma teknolojisi, sa\u011fl\u0131k teknolojisi ve y\u00fcksek katma de\u011ferli \u00fcr\u00fcn ihra\u00e7 edebilmesiyle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n

\u0130stihdam taraf\u0131nda da somut hedef var.<\/p>\n

Program d\u00f6neminde yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,1 milyon yeni istihdam olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin y\u00fczde 7,6\u2019ya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi planlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Kad\u0131nlar\u0131n ve gen\u00e7lerin i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcne daha fazla kat\u0131lmas\u0131, mesleki e\u011fitim, \u00e7ocuk bak\u0131m hizmetleri ve at\u0131l i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 da program\u0131n \u00f6nemli ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 aras\u0131nda.<\/p>\n

Fakat burada \u00f6nemli bir bo\u015fluk var.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ekonomik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131y\u0131 bug\u00fcn en a\u011f\u0131r ya\u015fayan kesimlerin ba\u015f\u0131nda emekliler geliyor.<\/p>\n

\u00c7al\u0131\u015fan i\u00e7in 2,1 milyonluk istihdam hedefi var.<\/p>\n

Sanayici i\u00e7in finansman var.<\/p>\n

\u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131 i\u00e7in destek var.<\/p>\n

Dar gelirli i\u00e7in sosyal konut ve kiral\u0131k konut politikalar\u0131 var.<\/p>\n

Ama emekli ayl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n reel olarak ne kadar art\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin programda somut ve \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclebilir bir hedef yok.<\/p>\n

Sosyal g\u00fcvenlik b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde daha \u00e7ok sistemin mali s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi ve prim gelirlerinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00fczerinde duruluyor.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenle OVP\u2019nin sosyal taraf\u0131nda en dikkat \u00e7ekici eksikliklerden biri emekliler.<\/p>\n

Tar\u0131mda ise program\u0131n dili de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f.<\/p>\n

Tar\u0131m art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca \u00fcretim veya fiyat meselesi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor; do\u011frudan ekonomik g\u00fcvenlik ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 alt\u0131nda de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n

Sulama yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 42, organize tar\u0131m b\u00f6lgesi yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 103 art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu\u011fday gibi stratejik \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u00fcretilmesi ve acil d\u00f6nemler i\u00e7in stoklanmas\u0131 \u00f6zellikle vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bence bu, OVP\u2019nin en \u00f6nemli zihniyet de\u011fi\u015fikliklerinden biri.<\/p>\n

\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc yeni d\u00fcnyada g\u0131da, enerji ve su art\u0131k yaln\u0131z ekonomi meselesi de\u011fil; do\u011frudan milli g\u00fcvenlik meselesi.<\/p>\n

Enerji taraf\u0131 ise program\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki OVP\u2019de 2026 i\u00e7in 64,3 dolar varsay\u0131lan Brent petrol fiyat\u0131 89,3 dolara y\u00fckseldi. Enerji ithalat\u0131 tahmini de 63 milyar dolardan 71 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu fark k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmsenecek bir fark de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

Petrol y\u00fckseldi\u011finde yaln\u0131zca rafineri faturas\u0131 artm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Motorin y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n

Benzin y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n

Nakliye pahalan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Tar\u0131m\u0131n maliyeti art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Sanayicinin \u00fcretim gideri y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n

Sonunda bunlar\u0131n tamam\u0131 yeniden enflasyona d\u00f6n\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Bu y\u00fczden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin enerji ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131, enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek kadar stratejik.<\/p>\n

D\u00f6viz kuru, alt\u0131n ve Borsa \u0130stanbul i\u00e7in ise OVP\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131k fiyat hedefi yok.<\/p>\n

Bu da \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n

Program \u201cdolar \u015fu olacak, alt\u0131n bu olacak, BIST \u015fu seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kacak\u201d demiyor. Bunun yerine TL\u2019ye g\u00fcvenin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, sermaye piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n derinle\u015ftirilmesi ve tasarruflar\u0131n uzun vadeli ara\u00e7lara y\u00f6nlendirilmesi hedefleniyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130hracatta ise 2026\u2019daki 282 milyar dolarl\u0131k mal ihracat\u0131n\u0131n 2029\u2019da 316 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Mal ve hizmet ihracat\u0131nda toplam hedef 450 milyar dolar.<\/p>\n

Ama as\u0131l \u00f6nemli olan ihracat\u0131n niteli\u011fi.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye daha fazla \u00fcr\u00fcn satmak kadar daha y\u00fcksek teknoloji ve daha y\u00fcksek katma de\u011fer satmak istiyor.<\/p>\n

Program\u0131n belki de en iddial\u0131 taraf\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki konumuna ili\u015fkin hedef.<\/p>\n

2026 sonunda milli gelirin 1,8 trilyon dolar\u0131, ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelirin 20 bin dolar\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin nominal b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte d\u00fcnyan\u0131n 16\u2019nc\u0131, sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesine g\u00f6re 11\u2019inci b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi konumunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

2029 sonunda ise milli gelirin 2,2 trilyon dolar\u0131n, ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelirin 25 bin dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 hedefleniyor.<\/p>\n

Benim tahminim \u015fu:<\/p>\n

Bu hedefler b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse T\u00fcrkiye, 2029\u2019a do\u011fru yaln\u0131zca b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler liginde kalan de\u011fil; Avrupa ile Asya aras\u0131nda \u00fcretim, savunma, lojistik, enerji ve ticaret bak\u0131m\u0131ndan daha a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 bir b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye ba\u015flayacakt\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi yaln\u0131zca \u201ck\u00f6pr\u00fc \u00fclke\u201d olarak tarif eden eski yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n yerine, \u00fcretim ve lojistik merkezi olma iddias\u0131 konuluyor.<\/p>\n

Program\u0131n siyasi a\u00e7\u0131dan dikkat \u00e7ekici bir di\u011fer mesaj\u0131 da se\u00e7im takvimi.<\/p>\n

Cevdet Y\u0131lmaz, OVP\u2019nin se\u00e7imlerin zaman\u0131nda yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Erken se\u00e7im senaryosu \u00fczerinden bir ekonomik program kurulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n

Bu da program\u0131n 2027-2029 d\u00f6nemini kesintisiz bir ekonomik politika d\u00f6nemi olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Peki umutlu olmal\u0131 m\u0131y\u0131z?<\/p>\n

Bence temkinli bi\u00e7imde evet.<\/p>\n

\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc hedeflerin y\u00f6n\u00fc do\u011fru.<\/p>\n

Daha fazla \u00fcretim, daha y\u00fcksek teknoloji, daha fazla ihracat, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tar\u0131m, daha az enerji ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve daha fazla istihdam\u2026<\/p>\n

Bunlara itiraz etmek zor.<\/p>\n

Ama mesele hedef koymak de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye 2,2 trilyon dolarl\u0131k ekonomiye ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda vatanda\u015f daha rahat ya\u015fayabiliyor mu?<\/p>\n

25 bin dolarl\u0131k ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131rken insanlar kiray\u0131 daha kolay \u00f6deyebiliyor mu?<\/p>\n

G\u0131da harcamas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7edeki pay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f m\u00fc?<\/p>\n

\u00c7al\u0131\u015fan\u0131n maa\u015f\u0131 reel olarak artm\u0131\u015f m\u0131?<\/p>\n

Emekli b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomiden pay alm\u0131\u015f m\u0131?<\/p>\n

Gen\u00e7ler daha kolay i\u015f bulabiliyor mu?<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fte yeni OVP\u2019nin ger\u00e7ek s\u0131nav\u0131 burada.<\/p>\n

Rakamlar umut veriyor.<\/p>\n

Ama T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin as\u0131l ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcyen refaha d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesiyle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2027-2029 d\u00f6nemine ili\u015fkin yeni Orta Vadeli Program\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u0130lk bak\u0131\u015fta rakamlar dikkat \u00e7ekici: Enflasyon y\u00fczde 9\u2019a inecek, b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kacak, ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir 25 bin dolar\u0131 a\u015facak, ihracat b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek, i\u015fsizlik gerileyecek. Peki b\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse T\u00fcrkiye nas\u0131l bir \u00fclke olacak? Daha \u00f6nemlisi, vatanda\u015f bunu cebinde hissedecek mi? Bence yeni OVP\u2019yi as\u0131l bu iki […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":48580,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[6479,87],"class_list":["post-48579","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kose-yazilari","tag-hamdibagci","tag-koseyazisi"],"yoast_head":"\n2029\u2019da T\u00fcrkiye nas\u0131l bir ekonomi olacak? 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