{"id":4667,"date":"2026-02-02T08:17:37","date_gmt":"2026-02-02T05:17:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/?p=4667"},"modified":"2026-02-02T08:28:51","modified_gmt":"2026-02-02T05:28:51","slug":"piyasalar-veri-merkez-bankasi-jeopolitik-ucgeninde-2-subat-2026-haftasina-nasil-basliyoruz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/02\/02\/piyasalar-veri-merkez-bankasi-jeopolitik-ucgeninde-2-subat-2026-haftasina-nasil-basliyoruz\/","title":{"rendered":"Piyasalar \u201cveri + merkez bankas\u0131 + jeopolitik\u201d \u00fc\u00e7geninde 2 \u015eubat 2026 haftas\u0131na nas\u0131l ba\u015fl\u0131yoruz?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u015eubat\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131na girilirken piyasalar\u0131n fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015f\u0131, tek bir hik\u00e2yeden de\u011fil; ayn\u0131 anda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u00fc\u00e7 ana eksenden<\/strong> beslenen \u00e7ok katmanl\u0131 bir denkleme dayan\u0131yor. Yurti\u00e7inde<\/strong> ocak enflasyonu ve \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler, dezenflasyon patikas\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131 kadar kur-ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi, \u00fccret\/fiyat ayarlamalar\u0131 ve i\u00e7 talep<\/strong> g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fczerinden faiz beklentilerini<\/strong> \u015fekillendiriyor; bu da tahvil faizlerinden Borsa \u0130stanbul\u2019da sekt\u00f6r rotasyonuna kadar geni\u015f bir alanda fiyatlaman\u0131n ana omurgas\u0131n\u0131 kuruyor. K\u00fcresel cephede<\/strong> ise ECB ve BoE\u2019nin kararlar\u0131 kadar, bu kararlar\u0131n sat\u0131r aralar\u0131nda verilecek ileri y\u00f6nlendirme<\/strong> mesajlar\u0131 ile ABD istihdam verilerinin \u201cFed\u2019in indirime ne kadar yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu\u201d sorusuna yan\u0131t \u00fcretmesi, dolar\u0131n seyrini, geli\u015fen \u00fclkelere sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkiliyor. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc eksende, \u0130ran hatt\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik risk primi<\/strong>, enerji arz\u0131 ve ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere petrol ve t\u00fcrev emtialarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong> art\u0131r\u0131rken; enflasyon beklentileri, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme alg\u0131s\u0131 ve g\u00fcvenli liman talebi \u00fczerinden alt\u0131n ve sanayi metalleri<\/strong> dahil emtia sepetine yay\u0131lan bir dalga \u00fcretiyor. Sonu\u00e7ta haftaya girerken piyasa dengesi; veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 (enflasyon\u2013istihdam), merkez bankas\u0131 ileti\u015fimi (faiz patikas\u0131) ve jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n (risk primi)<\/strong> ayn\u0131 anda \u201cfiyat ke\u015ffi\u201d yapt\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131, bu nedenle tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendlerden ziyade haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na duyarl\u0131, sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirebilen<\/strong> bir oynakl\u0131k zemininde ilerliyor.<\/p>\n

A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tablo, 2 \u015eubat 2026<\/strong> i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f<\/strong> seviyelerini \u00f6zetliyor:<\/p>\n

\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Piyasa<\/th>\nA\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f<\/th>\nNot<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
BIST 100 (XU100)<\/td>\n13.827,4<\/strong><\/td>\nEndeks a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f seviyesi<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USD\/TRY<\/td>\n43,4771<\/strong><\/td>\nG\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f kuru<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
EUR\/TRY<\/td>\n51,5379<\/strong><\/td>\nG\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f kuru<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gram alt\u0131n (GAU\/TRY)<\/td>\n6.804,378 TL<\/strong><\/td>\nG\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Piyasa \u201ca\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f foto\u011fraf\u0131\u201d (2 \u015eubat sabah\u0131)<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  • Borsa \u0130stanbul \/ BIST 100:<\/strong> Cuma (30 Ocak) kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 13.838<\/strong>; haftaya bu banda yak\u0131n bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 beklenebilir.<\/li>\n
  • USD\/TRY:<\/strong> 43,50<\/strong> civar\u0131.<\/li>\n
  • EUR\/TRY:<\/strong> 51,9\u201352,0<\/strong> band\u0131.<\/li>\n
  • Alt\u0131n:<\/strong> Gram alt\u0131n haftaya 6.590 TL<\/strong> civar\u0131nda ba\u015fl\u0131yor; ons alt\u0131n 4.636 $<\/strong> seviyelerine geriledi (y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k s\u00fcr\u00fcyor).<\/li>\n
  • Petrol:<\/strong> Brent, 30 Ocak\u2019ta ~70,7 $<\/strong> civar\u0131n\u0131 test ettikten sonra 2 \u015eubat i\u015flemlerinde ~66\u201367 $<\/strong> band\u0131na \u00e7ekildi.<\/li>\n
  • Dolar endeksi (DXY):<\/strong> 30 Ocak\u2019ta ~96,86<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Not: Rakamlar anl\u0131k veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde de\u011fi\u015febilir; farkl\u0131 platform\/kuyumcu\/kanal fiyatlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda fark olu\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n

    T\u00fcrkiye: Borsa bu hafta neye bakacak?<\/strong><\/p>\n

    1) Enflasyon (sal\u0131) ve \u201cfaiz patikas\u0131\u201d beklentileri<\/strong><\/p>\n

      \n
    • Haftan\u0131n ana yurti\u00e7i verisi: Ocak T\u00dcFE<\/strong> (3 \u015eubat 10:00).<\/li>\n
    • Piyasa medyan beklentisi ayl\u0131k ~%4,2 \/ y\u0131ll\u0131k ~%29,9<\/strong>; s\u00fcrpriz yukar\u0131 gelirse tahvil faizleri yukar\u0131 \u2013 hisse \u00e7arpanlar\u0131 bask\u0131<\/strong> temas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      2) PMI ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme alg\u0131s\u0131: \u201cdaralma yava\u015fl\u0131yor mu?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

        \n
      • \u0130stanbul Sanayi Odas\u0131 \u0130malat PMI<\/strong> bug\u00fcn (2 \u015eubat) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; son okumada endeks 50 e\u015fik alt\u0131ndayd\u0131<\/strong>, ancak toparlanma sinyalleri izleniyor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        3) Kur dengesi, rezervler ve TCMB ileti\u015fimi<\/strong><\/p>\n

          \n
        • Bu hafta reel efektif kur<\/strong> ve fiyat geli\u015fmeleri raporu<\/strong> gibi ba\u015fl\u0131klar, \u201cdezenflasyonun h\u0131z\u0131\u201d ve TL\u2019nin reel seyri<\/strong> tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na veri sa\u011flar.<\/li>\n
        • D\u0131\u015f ticaret taraf\u0131nda Ticaret Bakan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 ocak verileri de (\u00f6zellikle enerji faturas\u0131na duyarl\u0131 kalemler nedeniyle) kur\/hisse beklentilerine yans\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          BIST i\u00e7in izlenecek teknik e\u015fikler<\/strong><\/p>\n

            \n
          • Kapan\u0131\u015f 13.838<\/strong>. Yukar\u0131da 13.900<\/strong> civar\u0131 (52 hafta zirvesine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lge) ilk \u201ctest\u201d alan\u0131; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 13.650<\/strong> band\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli destek olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor (son g\u00fcn i\u00e7i aral\u0131k verileriyle).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

            D\u00f6viz: USD\/TRY ve EUR\/TRY haftaya nereden giriyor, ne belirler?<\/strong><\/p>\n

            Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 seviyesi<\/strong><\/p>\n

              \n
            • USD\/TRY 43,5<\/strong> civar\u0131.<\/li>\n
            • EUR\/TRY 51,9\u201352,0<\/strong> band\u0131.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

              D\u00f6vizi etkileyecek ana unsurlar (bu hafta)<\/strong><\/p>\n

                \n
              1. Enflasyon s\u00fcrprizi ve yerel faiz beklentisi:<\/strong> T\u00dcFE beklentiyi a\u015farsa TL \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 artabilir; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirse k\u0131sa vadede \u201crahatlama\u201d g\u00f6rebiliriz.<\/li>\n
              2. K\u00fcresel dolar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc (DXY):<\/strong> DXY\u2019deki hareket, geli\u015fen \u00fclke kurlar\u0131 i\u00e7in genel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7eri gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/li>\n
              3. K\u00fcresel veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131:<\/strong> ABD istihdam haftas\u0131 (JOLTS\/PMI\/NFP) \u201cFed ne zaman gev\u015fer?\u201d fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 oynat\u0131r.<\/li>\n
              4. Enerji\/emtia fiyatlar\u0131 ve jeopolitik:<\/strong> Petrol ve risk primi yukar\u0131da kal\u0131rsa d\u0131\u015f denge kanal\u0131ndan kur hassasiyeti artar.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                Alt\u0131n: \u201ckay\u0131p haftas\u0131 m\u0131, toparlanma m\u0131?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

                Nereden ba\u015fl\u0131yor?<\/strong><\/p>\n

                  \n
                • Gram alt\u0131n haftaya 6.590 TL<\/strong> civar\u0131nda ba\u015flarken, ons alt\u0131n 4.636 $<\/strong> seviyelerine kadar geriledi.<\/li>\n
                • K\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen zirvelerin ard\u0131ndan sert geri \u00e7ekilme, k\u00e2r realizasyonu + risk alg\u0131s\u0131<\/strong> kombinasyonunu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. (Farkl\u0131 kaynaklarda \u201csert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u201d vurgusu bu oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 teyit ediyor.)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                  Alt\u0131n\u0131 bu hafta belirleyecek ba\u015fl\u0131klar<\/strong><\/p>\n

                    \n
                  1. Federal Reserve beklentileri ve ABD verileri:<\/strong> \u0130stihdam\/PMI verileriyle \u201cfaiz indirimi ufku\u201d \u00f6ne \u00e7ekilirse alt\u0131n nefes alabilir; tersi durumda bask\u0131 s\u00fcrebilir.<\/li>\n
                  2. Jeopolitik risk primi:<\/strong> \u0130ran hatt\u0131ndaki gerilim petrol\u00fc de oynat\u0131yor; risk alg\u0131s\u0131 sertle\u015firse alt\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebiyle toparlanabilir.<\/li>\n
                  3. Dolar endeksi ve reel faiz:<\/strong> DXY g\u00fc\u00e7lenirse alt\u0131n\u0131n dolar baz\u0131nda toparlanmas\u0131 zorla\u015fabilir.<\/li>\n
                  4. TL taraf\u0131 (gram alt\u0131n):<\/strong> Ons alt\u0131n + USD\/TRY bile\u015fimi; kur stabil kalsa bile ons taraf\u0131ndaki sert hareket gram\u0131 oynat\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                    Baz senaryo:<\/strong> Bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte sert sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dalgal\u0131 bir \u201cdenge aray\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d<\/strong> daha olas\u0131; yani tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hafta yerine, veri g\u00fcnlerinde geni\u015f bant. (Yukar\u0131\/yukar\u0131 de\u011fil; \u201coynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek\u201d haftas\u0131.)<\/p>\n

                    Emtia: Petrol, bak\u0131r, gaz, tar\u0131m\u2026 Haftaya hangi seviyelerle giriyor?<\/strong><\/p>\n

                    Petrol: Jeopolitik prim + OPEC+ \u00e7er\u00e7evesi<\/strong><\/p>\n

                      \n
                    • Brent\u2019te 29 Ocak\u2019ta ~70,7 $<\/strong> kapan\u0131\u015f ve \u201c\u0130ran endi\u015fesi\u201d temas\u0131 belirgindi.<\/li>\n
                    • Hafta sonu\/ba\u015f\u0131nda OPEC+<\/strong>\u2019\u0131n Mart i\u00e7in \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 duraklamas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme<\/strong> karar\u0131, arz taraf\u0131nda \u201ckontroll\u00fc\u201d duru\u015fu koruyor.<\/li>\n
                    • 2 \u015eubat i\u015flemlerinde Brent\u2019in ~66\u201367 $<\/strong> band\u0131na \u00e7ekilmesi, risk primiyle y\u00fckseli\u015fin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n geri verildi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                      Sanayi metalleri: Bak\u0131rda y\u00fcksek volatilite<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \n
                      • Bak\u0131r vadeli i\u015flemleri 2 \u015eubat\u2019ta ~5,77<\/strong> civar\u0131nda; yak\u0131n g\u00fcnlerde sert dalgalanma var.<\/li>\n
                      • Bak\u0131rda hafta temas\u0131: k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme alg\u0131s\u0131 + \u00c7in\/ABD PMI\u2019lar\u0131 + dolar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                        Do\u011fal gaz ve tar\u0131m<\/strong><\/p>\n

                          \n
                        • ABD do\u011fal gaz\u0131 (Mar 2026) ~3,69<\/strong>; oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek.<\/li>\n
                        • ABD bu\u011fday\u0131 (Mar 2026) ~538<\/strong>; tar\u0131mda hava ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve ihracat ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 izlenir.<\/li>\n
                        • Demir cevheri taraf\u0131nda ~105,6 $\/ton<\/strong> seviyesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                          Haftan\u0131n ajandas\u0131: T\u00fcrkiye ve d\u00fcnya<\/strong><\/p>\n

                          T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kanlar<\/strong><\/p>\n

                            \n
                          • 2 \u015eubat: Ocak d\u0131\u015f ticaret<\/strong> verileri (a\u00e7\u0131klama plan\u0131).<\/li>\n
                          • 3 \u015eubat: Ocak T\u00dcFE<\/strong> (T\u00dc\u0130K).<\/li>\n
                          • 6 \u015eubat: ADNKS n\u00fcfus<\/strong> verisi.<\/li>\n
                          • Hafta boyunca: PMI, reel efektif kur, TCMB raporlar\u0131 gibi alt ba\u015fl\u0131klar.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                            K\u00fcreselde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kanlar<\/strong><\/p>\n

                              \n
                            • 5 \u015eubat: European Central Bank<\/strong> faiz karar\u0131 (takvim ve piyasa \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131).<\/li>\n
                            • 5 \u015eubat: Bank of England<\/strong> faiz karar\u0131 (anketlerde \u201csabit\u201d beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor).<\/li>\n
                            • 2\u20136 \u015eubat: ABD istihdam haftas\u0131<\/strong> (JOLTS, ADP, tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam); Fed ileti\u015fimi ve tahvil piyasas\u0131 \u00fczerinden k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 etkiler.<\/li>\n
                            • Petrol taraf\u0131nda: \u0130ran gerilimi ve OPEC+ \u00e7izgisi fiyatlamay\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                              Sonu\u00e7: Bu hafta piyasan\u0131n \u201cana sorusu\u201d ne?<\/strong><\/p>\n

                              T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u201cenflasyon s\u00fcrprizi\u201d + k\u00fcreselde \u201cfaiz patikas\u0131\u201d<\/strong> ayn\u0131 anda fiyatlanacak. BIST\u2019te g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n ard\u0131ndan k\u00e2r realizasyonu riski<\/strong> ile veri destekli yeni zirve denemesi<\/strong> ayn\u0131 potada. D\u00f6vizde dar bant\u2013haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yla geni\u015fleme<\/strong>, alt\u0131nda ise y\u00fcksek volatilite + veri g\u00fcnlerinde sert y\u00f6n aray\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/strong> temel senaryo.<\/p>\n

                               <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                              \u015eubat\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131na girilirken fiyatlamay\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 ba\u015fl\u0131k ayn\u0131 anda belirliyor: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ocak enflasyonu ve \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler, k\u00fcreselde ECB\/BoE kararlar\u0131 ile ABD istihdam verileri, \u0130ran hatt\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik risk primi ve emtia oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4669,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[265,263,264,266,262],"class_list":["post-4667","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-altin","tag-bist100","tag-doviz","tag-emtia","tag-piyasalar"],"yoast_head":"\nPiyasalar \u201cveri + merkez bankas\u0131 + jeopolitik\u201d \u00fc\u00e7geninde 2 \u015eubat 2026 haftas\u0131na nas\u0131l ba\u015fl\u0131yoruz? - Merceknet 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