D\u00fcnya, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir El Ni\u00f1o\u2019nun etkisi alt\u0131nda giriyor.<\/p>\n
Tropikal Pasifik Okyanusu\u2019nun orta ve do\u011fu kesimlerinde deniz y\u00fczeyi s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n normal de\u011ferlerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla geli\u015fen El Ni\u00f1o, yaz aylar\u0131nda belirgin bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. G\u00fcncel de\u011ferlendirmeler, olay\u0131n a\u011fustos-ekim d\u00f6neminde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyeye ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n son aylar\u0131na do\u011fru ise daha da kuvvetlenebilece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
Pasifik\u2019teki temel izleme b\u00f6lgelerinde mevsim ortalamas\u0131 deniz y\u00fczeyi s\u0131cakl\u0131k anomalilerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,9 dereceye kadar ula\u015fabilece\u011fi<\/strong> tahmin ediliyor. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte bir sapma, 2026\u2019daki El Ni\u00f1o\u2019nun s\u0131radan bir olaydan \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretme ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Son tahminlere g\u00f6re El Ni\u00f1o\u2019nun 2026 sonuna kadar g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye devam etmesi bekleniyor. Olay\u0131n 2027 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilkbahar\u0131na kadar devam etme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 97 seviyesinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n Daha dikkat \u00e7ekici tahmin ise ekim-aral\u0131k d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in yap\u0131ld\u0131. Bu d\u00f6nemde El Ni\u00f1o\u2019nun \u201c\u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u201d s\u0131n\u0131fa ula\u015fma ihtimali y\u00fczde 81<\/strong> olarak hesapland\u0131. B\u00f6yle bir senaryoda 2026-2027 El Ni\u00f1o\u2019su, 1950\u2019den bu yana g\u00f6zlenen en b\u00fcy\u00fck El Ni\u00f1o olaylar\u0131 aras\u0131na girebilir.<\/p>\n Ancak bu noktada \u201cson 150 y\u0131l\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc El Ni\u00f1o\u2019su kesinle\u015fti\u201d \u015feklindeki de\u011ferlendirmelere temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n Mevcut resmi de\u011ferlendirmeler El Ni\u00f1o\u2019nun h\u0131zla g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini ve tarihsel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir olay haline gelebilece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor; ancak olay hen\u00fcz zirve noktas\u0131na ula\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in son 150 y\u0131l\u0131n kesin olarak en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcs\u00fc oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenemiyor.<\/strong> Mevcut tahminler daha \u00e7ok 2026\u2019daki olay\u0131n tarihsel olarak en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc El Ni\u00f1o\u2019lar aras\u0131na girebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o\u2019nun g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n zaten son derece s\u0131cak bir d\u00f6nemden ge\u00e7ti\u011fi s\u0131rada ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n Temmuz 2026\u2019da k\u00fcresel ortalama y\u00fczey s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 16,90 derece<\/strong> olarak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. Ay, 1991-2020 Temmuz ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n 0,67 derece, sanayi \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nem olarak kabul edilen 1850-1900 ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n ise 1,47 derece \u00fczerinde<\/strong> ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n Temmuz 2026, \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm serisinde 2024 ile birlikte kay\u0131tlardaki en s\u0131cak ikinci temmuz ay\u0131 olurken, rekor 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n Okyanuslardaki tablo ise daha \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n Kutup b\u00f6lgeleri d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki k\u00fcresel okyanuslar\u0131n ortalama deniz y\u00fczeyi s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 temmuz ay\u0131nda 20,96 dereceye<\/strong> y\u00fckseldi. Bu de\u011fer temmuz aylar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015fimdiye kadar kaydedilen en y\u00fcksek seviye oldu.<\/p>\n Bu durum \u00f6nemli \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u0131cak okyanuslar atmosfere daha fazla enerji ve nem sa\u011flayabiliyor. Uygun atmosfer ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015ftu\u011fu b\u00f6lgelerde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131n \u015fiddetlenmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olurken, ba\u015fka b\u00f6lgelerde y\u00fcksek s\u0131cakl\u0131k ve ya\u011f\u0131\u015f eksikli\u011fi kurakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131rabiliyor.<\/p>\n K\u00fcresel s\u0131cakl\u0131klardaki y\u00fckseli\u015fle birlikte Paris \u0130klim Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 1,5 derecelik hedefi de yeniden tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131k sanayi \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nemin yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,55 derece \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 1,5 derecelik seviyeyi bir y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131na a\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda benzer ge\u00e7ici a\u015fmalar\u0131n daha s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n 2026-2030 aras\u0131ndaki y\u0131llardan en az birinde k\u00fcresel ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n 1,5 dereceyi ge\u00e7me ihtimali y\u00fczde 91<\/strong>, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n 1,5 derecenin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ihtimali ise y\u00fczde 75<\/strong> olarak hesaplan\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca 2026-2030 d\u00f6nemindeki y\u0131llardan birinin mevcut s\u0131cakl\u0131k rekorunu k\u0131rma ihtimali y\u00fczde 86 olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n Ancak 1,5 derecenin tek bir y\u0131l veya birka\u00e7 y\u0131l a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019ndaki uzun d\u00f6nemli s\u0131cakl\u0131k hedefinin teknik anlamda kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak ge\u00e7ildi\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Paris hedefinde k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma uzun d\u00f6nemli, genellikle yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalamalar \u00fczerinden de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o\u2019nun d\u00fcnyan\u0131n her b\u00f6lgesinde ayn\u0131 sonucu do\u011furmas\u0131 beklenmiyor.<\/p>\n G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc El Ni\u00f1o d\u00f6nemleri k\u00fcresel atmosfer dola\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. Bunun sonucunda baz\u0131 co\u011frafyalarda ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar artarken baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde kurakl\u0131k ihtimali y\u00fckseliyor. A\u011fustos-ekim d\u00f6neminde G\u00fcney Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n baz\u0131 kesimleri ile Orta Asya\u2019da normalin \u00fczerinde ya\u011f\u0131\u015f, Kuzey Avrupa ve baz\u0131 tropikal b\u00f6lgelerde ise normalden daha kurak ko\u015fullar bekleniyor.<\/p>\n Prof. Dr. Ceyhun \u00d6z\u00e7elik de s\u0131cakl\u0131k ve okyanuslardaki de\u011fi\u015fimin meteorolojik ve hidrolojik olaylar \u00fczerindeki etkisine dikkat \u00e7ekerek a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda, \u201cOkyanus s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 atmosfer \u0131s\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde meteorolojik ve hidrolojik olaylar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131nda ve s\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beraberinde getirece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalamaya bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z zaman 1,5 derecelik limitin a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.\u201d<\/strong> ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n Uzmanlar s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131, kurakl\u0131k, ani ve kuvvetli ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar, ta\u015fk\u0131nlar ile orman yang\u0131nlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini vurguluyor.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o\u2019nun T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011ferlendirilmesinde \u00f6nemli bir kavram karma\u015fas\u0131 bulunuyor.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de meydana gelen bir hava olay\u0131 de\u011fil. Olay tropikal Pasifik Okyanusu\u2019nda olu\u015fuyor. Ancak Pasifik\u2019teki \u00e7ok geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki s\u0131cakl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimleri atmosfer dola\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirerek d\u00fcnyan\u0131n farkl\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerindeki s\u0131cakl\u0131k ve ya\u011f\u0131\u015f d\u00fczenlerine dolayl\u0131 \u015fekilde etki edebiliyor.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin havas\u0131n\u0131 ise yaln\u0131zca El Ni\u00f1o belirlemiyor. Akdeniz ve Atlantik\u2019teki deniz s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131, Kuzey Atlantik\u2019teki atmosfer hareketleri, kutupsal sistemler ve b\u00f6lgesel bas\u0131n\u00e7 merkezleri de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki ya\u011f\u0131\u015f ve s\u0131cakl\u0131k ko\u015fullar\u0131nda belirleyici oluyor.<\/p>\n Bu nedenle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir El Ni\u00f1o\u2019nun ba\u015flamas\u0131, \u201cT\u00fcrkiye kesin kurakl\u0131k ya\u015fayacak\u201d ya da \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar ba\u015flayacak\u201d \u015feklinde do\u011frudan yorumlanam\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Buna kar\u015f\u0131n uzun vadeli tahminler T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u00f6zellikle s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n mevsim normallerinin \u00fczerinde kalma ihtimalinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu<\/strong> ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n Eyl\u00fcl 2026 tahminlerine g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00f6nemli b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n mevsim normallerinin 1 ila 2 derece \u00fczerinde<\/strong> ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n G\u00fcney Ege ve Bat\u0131 Akdeniz k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131nda s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n normaller civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, Trakya, Bat\u0131 Akdeniz\u2019in i\u00e7 kesimleri ve Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019de 0,5 ila 1 derece, baz\u0131 do\u011fu b\u00f6lgelerinde ise 2 ila 3 dereceye ula\u015fan pozitif s\u0131cakl\u0131k sapmalar\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n Ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ise T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde mevsim normalleri civar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n Ekim ay\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n yine normallerin 1 ila 2 derece \u00fczerinde<\/strong> seyretmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n Ya\u011f\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ise eyl\u00fclden farkl\u0131 bir tablo ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ekim ay\u0131nda \u00fclke genelinde ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131n mevsim normallerinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n Bu durum daha s\u0131cak bir atmosferle birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde \u00f6zellikle k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli kuvvetli ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Ancak mevsimlik tahminler tek tek \u015fehirlerde hangi g\u00fcn a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ya\u011f\u0131\u015f meydana gelece\u011fini g\u00f6stermiyor.<\/p>\n Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 tahminlerinde de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin geni\u015f b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n mevsim normallerinin 1 ila 2 derece \u00fczerinde<\/strong> ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n Ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ise \u0130\u00e7 Anadolu\u2019nun kuzeybat\u0131s\u0131 ve birka\u00e7 b\u00f6lge d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00fclkenin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde normallerin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2026 sonbahar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hem s\u0131cak hem de d\u00f6nem d\u00f6nem ya\u011f\u0131\u015fl\u0131 ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin en \u00f6nemli tar\u0131msal \u00fcretim merkezlerinden biri olan Konya, El Ni\u00f1o ve k\u00fcresel s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n en yak\u0131ndan takip edilmesi gereken iller aras\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n Konya\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nemi yaln\u0131zca hava s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fil. Geni\u015f tar\u0131m alanlar\u0131, sulama ihtiyac\u0131 ve yer alt\u0131 su kaynaklar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik y\u00fcksek talep nedeniyle ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131 ve s\u0131cakl\u0131klardaki de\u011fi\u015fim kent a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan do\u011frudan \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n G\u00fcncel uzun vadeli tahminler Konya\u2019da sonbahar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn normalden s\u0131cak ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n Eyl\u00fcl tahmininde \u0130\u00e7 Anadolu\u2019nun b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n mevsim normallerinin 1 ila 2 derece \u00fczerinde<\/strong> ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n Bu b\u00f6lgesel tahmin Konya\u2019ya uyarland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, kentte eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131n\u0131n uzun y\u0131llar ortalamalar\u0131ndan daha s\u0131cak ge\u00e7mesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ise Konya\u2019n\u0131n da i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu kesimlerde genel olarak mevsim normalleri civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu, mevcut mevsimlik tahminden yap\u0131lan b\u00f6lgesel bir de\u011ferlendirme ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck hava tahmini anlam\u0131na gelmiyor.<\/p>\n \u00d6zellikle s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyretmesi topraktaki ve y\u00fczey sular\u0131ndaki buharla\u015fmay\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in ya\u011f\u0131\u015f miktar\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na su dengesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yeterli g\u00f6sterge olu\u015fturmuyor.<\/p>\n Ekim tahmininde \u0130\u00e7 Anadolu\u2019nun b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n mevsim normallerinin 1 ila 2 derece \u00fczerinde<\/strong> olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n Ayn\u0131 tahminde T\u00fcrkiye genelinde ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131n normalin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle Konya i\u00e7in de ekim ay\u0131nda ortalamadan daha s\u0131cak ancak ya\u011f\u0131\u015f ihtimali g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015f bir senaryo \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131n fazla olmas\u0131 ise her durumda kurakl\u0131k sorununu ortadan kald\u0131rm\u0131yor. Tar\u0131m a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131n miktar\u0131 kadar hangi d\u00f6nemde, ne kadar s\u00fcrede ve hangi \u015fiddette ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi de \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n K\u0131sa s\u00fcrede d\u00fc\u015fen kuvvetli ya\u011f\u0131\u015f, topra\u011f\u0131n suyu yeterince tutamamas\u0131 halinde y\u00fczey ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ve ta\u015fk\u0131nlara neden olabilirken uzun s\u00fcreye yay\u0131lan d\u00fczenli ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar toprak nemi ve su kaynaklar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha yararl\u0131 olabiliyor.<\/p>\n Kas\u0131m tahminlerinde \u0130\u00e7 Anadolu\u2019nun \u00f6nemli b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n yine 1 ila 2 derece normalin \u00fczerinde<\/strong> ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n Ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131n \u0130\u00e7 Anadolu\u2019nun kuzeybat\u0131 kesimleri d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda normallerin \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131 tahmin edildi\u011finden, Konya i\u00e7in de kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda normalden s\u0131cak ve ya\u011f\u0131\u015fl\u0131 bir tablonun olu\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimali bulunuyor. Bu de\u011ferlendirme mevcut b\u00f6lgesel tahminlerden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Konya a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan dikkat \u00e7eken bir ba\u015fka ayr\u0131nt\u0131 ise 2026 su y\u0131l\u0131 verileri.<\/p>\n 1 Ekim 2025 ile 30 Haziran 2026 aras\u0131ndaki dokuz ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde T\u00fcrkiye genelindeki ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar uzun y\u0131llar ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 30 \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n Konya ve \u00e7evresinde ise baz\u0131 kesimlerde ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131n normal de\u011ferlerin y\u00fczde 60\u2019tan fazla \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong> belirlendi. \u0130\u00e7 Anadolu genelinde de d\u00f6nem ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131 normallerin y\u00fczde 27 \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Konya\u2019da 2026 i\u00e7in \u201c\u015fu anda hi\u00e7 ya\u011f\u0131\u015f yok ve kent b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle meteorolojik kurakl\u0131k alt\u0131nda\u201d \u015feklinde genelleme yapmak do\u011fru de\u011fil.<\/p>\n Son d\u00f6nemde ya\u011f\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir toparlanma ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n Bununla birlikte Konya Havzas\u0131 uzun vadeli kurakl\u0131k ve su y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin hassas b\u00f6lgelerinden biri olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda Konya Havzas\u0131 ve \u00e7evresinde ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc \u015fiddette kurakl\u0131k ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 resmi de\u011ferlendirmelere yans\u0131rken, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin su kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 uzun vadede azaltaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. 2100 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar \u00fclkenin su kaynaklar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 25\u2019e varan azalma ihtimali \u00fczerinde duruluyor.<\/p>\n Bu nedenle 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk dokuz ay\u0131nda ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131n y\u00fcksek ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi \u00f6nemli bir olumlu geli\u015fme olsa da Konya\u2019daki uzun vadeli su bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na ortadan kald\u0131rm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\n Konya a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemin as\u0131l kritik ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131ndan biri s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrekli normalin \u00fczerinde seyretmesi olabilir.<\/p>\n Eyl\u00fcl, ekim ve kas\u0131m aylar\u0131n\u0131n ortalamadan 1-2 derece s\u0131cak ge\u00e7mesi halinde topraktan ve bitkilerden su kayb\u0131 artabilir. Bu da sulama ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltebilir ve \u00f6zellikle ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131n d\u00fczensiz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde tar\u0131msal su talebini art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n Konya\u2019da dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yaln\u0131zca \u201cne kadar ya\u011fmur ya\u011faca\u011f\u0131\u201d de\u011fil, ya\u011f\u0131\u015f ile s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n birlikte nas\u0131l geli\u015fece\u011fi<\/strong> yak\u0131ndan izlenecek.<\/p>\n Ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131n normal veya \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcnse bile y\u00fcksek s\u0131cakl\u0131k nedeniyle artan buharla\u015fma su bilan\u00e7osundaki kazan\u0131m\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc azaltabilir.<\/p>\n Prof. Dr. Ceyhun \u00d6z\u00e7elik, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin farkl\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerinde birbirinden farkl\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nem i\u00e7inde ya\u015fanabilece\u011fini belirterek a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda, \u201c\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi sonucu meydana gelen ta\u015fk\u0131n ve kurakl\u0131k etkilerini, s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131n\u0131 ve orman yang\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131 da etkileme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek. Gerek bilim adamlar\u0131 gerekse de yerel y\u00f6neticilerin bu etkilere kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131k i\u00e7erisinde bulunmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Akdeniz’e bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z zaman temmuz ve a\u011fustos aylar\u0131nda s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n ekstrem oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Uydu verileri bize deniz suyu s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n Akdeniz’in bat\u0131 kesiminde 7-8 dereceye kadar art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ise k\u0131y\u0131 b\u00f6lgesinde \u015fiddetli ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131, i\u00e7 b\u00f6lgelerde de kurakl\u0131k etkilerini beraberinde getirme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyor.\u201d<\/strong> ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n Akdeniz\u2019de temmuz ay\u0131nda deniz y\u00fczeyi s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n bir\u00e7ok b\u00f6lgede ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc y\u00fcksek seviyelerde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi do\u011frulan\u0131rken, yer yer g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek anomalilerin b\u00fct\u00fcn Akdeniz\u2019in ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u015feklinde de\u011ferlendirilmemesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n Mevcut veriler birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde Konya i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 ba\u015fl\u0131k \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor:<\/p>\n S\u0131cakl\u0131k:<\/strong> Eyl\u00fcl, ekim ve kas\u0131m aylar\u0131nda normallerin yakla\u015f\u0131k 1-2 derece \u00fczerinde s\u0131cakl\u0131k ihtimali bulunuyor.<\/p>\n Ya\u011f\u0131\u015f:<\/strong> Eyl\u00fclde normaller civar\u0131nda, ekim ve kas\u0131mda ise normalin \u00fczerinde ya\u011f\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n Su ve tar\u0131m:<\/strong> 2026 su y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk dokuz ay\u0131nda Konya \u00f6nemli miktarda ya\u011f\u0131\u015f alm\u0131\u015f olsa da havzan\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015ften gelen kurakl\u0131k ve su kaynaklar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131s\u0131 devam ediyor.<\/p>\n Bu nedenle Konya a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan El Ni\u00f1o\u2019nun etkisini yaln\u0131zca \u201cdaha s\u0131cak\u201d veya \u201cdaha kurak\u201d \u015feklinde tek c\u00fcmleyle ifade etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.<\/p>\n Mevcut tahminler, daha s\u0131cak ancak baz\u0131 aylarda daha ya\u011f\u0131\u015fl\u0131 bir sonbahar<\/strong> olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Bunun tar\u0131ma ve su kaynaklar\u0131na ger\u00e7ek etkisini ise ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131, \u015fiddeti, toprak nemi ve s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n ne kadar uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 belirleyecek.<\/p>\n 2026 El Ni\u00f1o\u2019sunun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ayda daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve kas\u0131m ay\u0131 civar\u0131nda en y\u00fcksek seviyesine yakla\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n \u00c7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc El Ni\u00f1o senaryosunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi halinde d\u00fcnya 2026\u2019n\u0131n sonu ve 2027\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131nda s\u0131cakl\u0131k rekorlar\u0131 ile b\u00f6lgesel ekstrem hava olaylar\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011fi bir d\u00f6neme girebilir.<\/p>\n 2026-2030 d\u00f6neminde yeni bir k\u00fcresel y\u0131ll\u0131k s\u0131cakl\u0131k rekorunun k\u0131r\u0131lma ihtimalinin y\u00fczde 86\u2019ya ula\u015fmas\u0131 ve 1,5 derecelik seviyenin en az bir y\u0131l yeniden a\u015f\u0131lma ihtimalinin y\u00fczde 91 olarak hesaplanmas\u0131 da bu riskin yaln\u0131zca El Ni\u00f1o\u2019yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ve \u00f6zellikle tar\u0131m ile su kaynaklar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hassas b\u00f6lgelerden Konya\u2019da ise \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki sonbahar boyunca s\u0131cakl\u0131k, ya\u011f\u0131\u015f, toprak nemi ve su kaynaklar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimlerin birlikte takip edilmesi kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Pasifik Okyanusu\u2019nda h\u0131zla g\u00fc\u00e7lenen El Ni\u00f1o, k\u00fcresel iklim sistemini yeniden hareketlendirdi. Son tahminler, 2026 sonunda \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir El Ni\u00f1o g\u00f6r\u00fclme ihtimalinin y\u00fczde 81\u2019e kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. K\u00fcresel s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n rekor seviyelere yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemde s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131, kurakl\u0131k, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ya\u011f\u0131\u015f, sel ve orman yang\u0131n\u0131 risklerinin b\u00f6lgesel olarak artabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de sonbahar aylar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde normallerin \u00fczerinde s\u0131cakl\u0131k beklenirken, tar\u0131msal \u00fcretim ve su kaynaklar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik b\u00f6lgelerden Konya\u2019da da s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n eyl\u00fcl, ekim ve kas\u0131m aylar\u0131nda mevsim normallerinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":43160,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[9267,14105],"class_list":["post-43156","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-havadurumu","tag-elnino","tag-konyakuraklik"],"yoast_head":"\n\u00c7OK G\u00dc\u00c7L\u00dc EL N\u0130\u00d1O \u0130HT\u0130MAL\u0130 Y\u00dcZDE 81<\/h2>\n
REKOR SICAKLIKLARIN \u00dcZER\u0130NE EL N\u0130\u00d1O ETK\u0130S\u0130<\/h2>\n
1,5 DERECEL\u0130K E\u015e\u0130KTE KR\u0130T\u0130K AYRINTI<\/h2>\n
EKSTREM HAVA OLAYLARI DAHA FAZLA G\u00dcNDEMDE OLACAK<\/h2>\n
T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019DE EL N\u0130\u00d1O YA\u015eANMIYOR, ETK\u0130LER\u0130 H\u0130SSED\u0130LEB\u0130L\u0130R<\/h2>\n
EYL\u00dcLDE T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019N\u0130N B\u00dcY\u00dcK B\u00d6L\u00dcM\u00dc DAHA SICAK<\/h2>\n
EK\u0130MDE HEM SICAKLIK HEM YA\u011eI\u015e ARTI\u015eI BEKLEN\u0130YOR<\/h2>\n
KASIMDA DA SICAK HAVA S\u0130NYAL\u0130 S\u00dcR\u00dcYOR<\/h2>\n
KONYA \u0130\u00c7\u0130N KR\u0130T\u0130K TABLO<\/h1>\n
KONYA\u2019DA EYL\u00dcL 1-2 DERECE DAHA SICAK OLAB\u0130L\u0130R<\/h2>\n
EK\u0130MDE KONYA \u0130\u00c7\u0130N DAHA SICAK VE DAHA YA\u011eI\u015eLI SENARYO<\/h2>\n
KASIMDA DA SICAKLIK NORMAL\u0130N \u00dcZER\u0130NDE<\/h2>\n
KONYA 2026\u2019DA ASLINDA DAHA FAZLA YA\u011eI\u015e ALDI<\/h2>\n
ANCAK KONYA\u2019NIN SU SORUNU TEK B\u0130R YA\u011eI\u015eLI YILLA \u00c7\u00d6Z\u00dcLM\u00dcYOR<\/h2>\n
TARIMDA EN B\u00dcY\u00dcK R\u0130SK SICAKLIK VE BUHARLA\u015eMA<\/h2>\n
PROF. DR. \u00d6Z\u00c7EL\u0130K\u2019TEN TA\u015eKIN VE KURAKLIK UYARISI<\/h2>\n
KONYA \u0130\u00c7\u0130N EN KR\u0130T\u0130K D\u00d6NEM SONBAHAR<\/h2>\n
G\u00d6ZLER KASIM AYINDAK\u0130 Z\u0130RVEDE<\/h2>\n