{"id":4137,"date":"2026-01-30T10:15:39","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T07:15:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/?p=4137"},"modified":"2026-01-30T10:15:39","modified_gmt":"2026-01-30T07:15:39","slug":"hanehalki-enflasyon-beklentisi-neden-mansetin-uzerinde-kaliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/01\/30\/hanehalki-enflasyon-beklentisi-neden-mansetin-uzerinde-kaliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Hanehalk\u0131 enflasyon beklentisi neden \u201cman\u015fetin\u201d \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019nda g\u00f6revli \u00fc\u00e7 ekonomistin kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 analizde, hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n 12 ay sonras\u0131 enflasyon beklentisinin uzun s\u00fcredir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen enflasyonun \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fi; bu ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n temelinde ise \u201chissedilen enflasyonun\u201d bulundu\u011fu vurguland\u0131. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmaya g\u00f6re beklentileri en \u00e7ok g\u0131da ve enerji gibi d\u00fczenli harcamalar ile T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6zelinde kira kalemi \u015fekillendiriyor; merkez bankas\u0131 ileti\u015fimi ve bilgi kanallar\u0131 da beklentilerin seyrinde kritik rol oynuyor.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"613\" data-end=\"1109\">T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) Uzman\u0131 <strong data-start=\"661\" data-end=\"677\">Furkan H\u00f6\u00e7\u00fck<\/strong>, Ekonomist <strong data-start=\"689\" data-end=\"714\">Halil \u0130brahim Korkmaz<\/strong> ve Uzman <strong data-start=\"724\" data-end=\"748\">Ahmet Bilal Kurto\u011flu<\/strong> imzal\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmede, enflasyon beklentilerinin t\u00fcketim-tasarruf kararlar\u0131ndan portf\u00f6y tercihlerine, fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan enflasyon dinamiklerine kadar geni\u015f bir alanda belirleyici oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekildi. TCMB\u2019nin fiyat istikrar\u0131 hedefi do\u011frultusunda ekonomik akt\u00f6rlerin beklentilerini politika tasar\u0131m\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir girdi olarak izledi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"613\" data-end=\"1109\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/tcmbblog.org\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/59274514-afc5-4d53-a275-6928803180e2\/1\/Grafik1.PNG?MOD=AJPERES\" \/><\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1111\" data-end=\"1195\">\u00dc\u00e7 farkl\u0131 kesim, \u00fc\u00e7 farkl\u0131 beklenti: Hanehalk\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek, piyasa daha temkinli<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1196\" data-end=\"1532\">\u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada, ayl\u0131k yay\u0131mlanan <strong data-start=\"1224\" data-end=\"1261\">\u201cSekt\u00f6rel Enflasyon Beklentileri\u201d<\/strong> anketinin; piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, reel sekt\u00f6r ve hanehalk\u0131n\u0131 birlikte kapsad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131. Son 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k anket sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n, <strong data-start=\"1389\" data-end=\"1507\">hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n 12 ay sonras\u0131 enflasyon beklentisinin \u201cmevcut enflasyonun genel olarak olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde\u201d seyretti\u011fini<\/strong> g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1534\" data-end=\"1555\">De\u011ferlendirmeye g\u00f6re:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"1558\" data-end=\"1689\"><strong data-start=\"1558\" data-end=\"1584\">Reel sekt\u00f6r beklentisi<\/strong> d\u00f6nem d\u00f6nem enflasyonun alt\u0131nda ya da \u00fcst\u00fcnde olu\u015fabilse de <strong data-start=\"1645\" data-end=\"1675\">daha y\u00fcksek bir korelasyon<\/strong><\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1692\" data-end=\"1925\"><strong data-start=\"1692\" data-end=\"1730\">Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n beklentisi<\/strong> ise <strong data-start=\"1735\" data-end=\"1763\">dezenflasyon \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcyle<\/strong> man\u015fet enflasyondan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyede olu\u015fma e\u011filiminde; ayr\u0131ca man\u015fet enflasyondaki oynakl\u0131klara <strong data-start=\"1868\" data-end=\"1890\">en s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepkiyi<\/strong> yine piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 veriyor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 data-start=\"1927\" data-end=\"1970\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/tcmbblog.org\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/59274514-afc5-4d53-a275-6928803180e2\/2\/Grafik2.PNG?MOD=AJPERES\" \/><\/h3>\n<h3 data-start=\"1927\" data-end=\"1970\">Tahmin hatas\u0131 en y\u00fcksek kesim hanehalk\u0131<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1971\" data-end=\"2453\">Metinde yer verilen kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmada, \u00fc\u00e7 kesimin beklentilerinin 12 ay sonra ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen enflasyonu tahmin etme performans\u0131 da ele al\u0131nd\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re <strong data-start=\"2119\" data-end=\"2165\">en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck hata pay\u0131 piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131nda<\/strong>, <strong data-start=\"2167\" data-end=\"2207\">en y\u00fcksek hata pay\u0131 ise hanehalk\u0131nda<\/strong> g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada, <strong data-start=\"2230\" data-end=\"2343\">enflasyonun g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretti\u011fi y\u0131llarda bile hanehalk\u0131 beklentilerinin ortalama 10 puan \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong>, son y\u0131llarda enflasyonun daha y\u00fcksek ve oynak seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemde ise fark\u0131n <strong data-start=\"2421\" data-end=\"2441\">daha da a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong> vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1971\" data-end=\"2453\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/tcmbblog.org\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/59274514-afc5-4d53-a275-6928803180e2\/3\/Grafik3.PNG?MOD=AJPERES\" \/><\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2455\" data-end=\"2512\">K\u00fcresel e\u011filim: \u201cAlg\u0131\u201d ile \u201cbeklenti\u201d birbirine yak\u0131n<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2513\" data-end=\"3091\">Analizde, hanehalk\u0131 ile profesyonel tahminler aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yaln\u0131zca T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye \u00f6zg\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131; geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde de benzer bir desen izlendi\u011fi kaydedildi. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 temel bulgu \u015fu: <strong data-start=\"2737\" data-end=\"2849\">Hissedilen (alg\u0131lanan) enflasyon, hanehalk\u0131 beklentilerindeki y\u00fcksek seviyeyi a\u00e7\u0131klamada \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan de\u011fi\u015fken.<\/strong> \u00dclkeler aras\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalarda <strong data-start=\"2883\" data-end=\"2952\">hissedilen enflasyon ile beklentilerin birbirine yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi<\/strong>, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k <strong data-start=\"2968\" data-end=\"3079\">mevcut enflasyon ile beklentiler aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n \u00f6nemli b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn \u201chissedilen enflasyondan\u201d kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong> belirtildi.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3093\" data-end=\"3311\">Bir di\u011fer dikkat \u00e7ekici unsur ise, \u00fclkelerin enflasyon oranlar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fse dahi hissedilen enflasyon ve beklentilerin <strong data-start=\"3208\" data-end=\"3251\">%5, %10 gibi e\u015fiklerde yo\u011funla\u015fabilmesi<\/strong>; \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada bu durum \u201cyuvarlama etkisi\u201dyle ili\u015fkilendirildi.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3093\" data-end=\"3311\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/tcmbblog.org\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/59274514-afc5-4d53-a275-6928803180e2\/4\/Grafik4.PNG?MOD=AJPERES\" \/><\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"3313\" data-end=\"3366\">Sepetin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131: G\u0131da, enerji ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de kira<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"3367\" data-end=\"3767\">\u00c7al\u0131\u015fma, hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon beklentisini olu\u015ftururken hangi harcama kalemlerini daha fazla dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131na da odaklan\u0131yor. Sonu\u00e7lara g\u00f6re <strong data-start=\"3510\" data-end=\"3528\">g\u0131da ve enerji<\/strong> kalemleri, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte \u201cd\u00fczenli harcama\u201d niteli\u011fi nedeniyle beklentilerde ba\u015fat rol oynuyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ise bu hassasiyetin genel olarak <strong data-start=\"3670\" data-end=\"3685\">daha y\u00fcksek<\/strong> oldu\u011fu, ayr\u0131ca <strong data-start=\"3701\" data-end=\"3719\">kira kaleminin<\/strong> de belirgin \u015fekilde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3769\" data-end=\"4268\">Metinde, \u201cson d\u00f6nemde gerilemekle birlikte\u201d kira enflasyonunun uzun s\u00fcre man\u015fet enflasyonun \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret edilerek; <strong data-start=\"3900\" data-end=\"4033\">s\u0131k t\u00fcketilen \u00fcr\u00fcnler (g\u0131da gibi) ve b\u00fct\u00e7ede b\u00fcy\u00fck yer tutan kalemlerin (kira gibi) hissedilen enflasyonun \u00f6nemli belirleyicileri<\/strong> oldu\u011fu sonucuna var\u0131l\u0131yor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, <strong data-start=\"4080\" data-end=\"4204\">hissedilen enflasyonu en fazla etkileyen kalemlerdeki fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ile man\u015fet enflasyon aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n<\/strong>, hanehalk\u0131 beklentilerini <strong data-start=\"4231\" data-end=\"4249\">yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi<\/strong> de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3769\" data-end=\"4268\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/tcmbblog.org\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/59274514-afc5-4d53-a275-6928803180e2\/6\/Grafik6.PNG?MOD=AJPERES\" \/><\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"4270\" data-end=\"4328\">\u0130leti\u015fim vurgusu: TV\u2013radyo yan\u0131nda sosyal medya etkisi<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"4329\" data-end=\"4906\">\u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada, hanehalk\u0131 beklentilerinin tahmin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131n\u0131n, <strong data-start=\"4399\" data-end=\"4443\">ileti\u015fimin etkin kurgulanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemini<\/strong> art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Analizde, merkez bankas\u0131 hakk\u0131nda bilgi ve fark\u0131ndal\u0131\u011f\u0131n enflasyon beklentileriyle anlaml\u0131 ili\u015fki ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131na at\u0131f yap\u0131larak; hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n bu bilgiyi hangi kanallardan ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 inceleniyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de, televizyon ve radyonun yan\u0131nda <strong data-start=\"4698\" data-end=\"4745\">sosyal medyan\u0131n da \u00f6nemli bir bilgi kayna\u011f\u0131<\/strong> oldu\u011fu; bu tablonun, TCMB\u2019nin farkl\u0131 kanallar \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ileti\u015fim faaliyetlerini dezenflasyon s\u00fcreci a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha kritik hale getirdi\u011fi kaydediliyor.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"4908\" data-end=\"4966\">Sonu\u00e7: Beklentilerde \u201cseviye\u201d kadar \u201ce\u011filim\u201d de kritik<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"4967\" data-end=\"5523\">\u00d6zet b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de hanehalk\u0131 enflasyon beklentilerinin \u2014d\u00fcnya \u00f6rnekleriyle uyumlu bi\u00e7imde\u2014 yap\u0131sal olarak mevcut enflasyonun ve di\u011fer ekonomik akt\u00f6rlerin beklentilerinin \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fi; bunun temelinde \u201chissedilen enflasyonun\u201d yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurgulan\u0131yor. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma, para politikas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fun s\u00fcrmesi ve enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle birlikte <strong data-start=\"5315\" data-end=\"5379\">hanehalk\u0131 beklentilerinde kademeli iyile\u015fmenin devam edece\u011fi<\/strong> beklentisini payla\u015f\u0131yor; ayn\u0131 zamanda <strong data-start=\"5418\" data-end=\"5480\">ekonominin t\u00fcm kesimleriyle etkin ileti\u015fimin s\u00fcreklili\u011fini<\/strong> \u201cistikrarl\u0131 iyile\u015fme\u201d i\u00e7in kritik g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5525\" data-end=\"5794\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\"><strong data-start=\"5525\" data-end=\"5543\">Kaynak\u00e7a notu:<\/strong> Metinde; BIS Quarterly Review (2025), NBER \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma k\u00e2\u011f\u0131d\u0131 (2022) ve TCMB Enflasyon Raporu 2024-IV\u2019te yer alan \u201cAlg\u0131lanan ve Beklenen Enflasyon\u201d kutusu dahil olmak \u00fczere, hanehalk\u0131 alg\u0131 ve beklentilerine ili\u015fkin uluslararas\u0131 literat\u00fcre at\u0131f yap\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>TCMB b\u00fcnyesindeki uzman ve ekonomistlerin \u201cMerkezin G\u00fcncesi\u201d blogunda yay\u0131mlanan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya g\u00f6re, hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n 12 ay sonras\u0131 enflasyon beklentisi son 10 y\u0131lda \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen enflasyonun belirgin \u00fczerinde seyretti. Analiz, bu ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n merkezinde \u201chissedilen enflasyon\u201dun yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; g\u0131da, enerji ve T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6zelinde kiradaki fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n beklentileri yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":4139,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4137","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiz"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Hanehalk\u0131 enflasyon beklentisi neden \u201cman\u015fetin\u201d \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor? - Merceknet Haber<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/01\/30\/hanehalki-enflasyon-beklentisi-neden-mansetin-uzerinde-kaliyor\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hanehalk\u0131 enflasyon beklentisi neden \u201cman\u015fetin\u201d \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor? - Merceknet Haber\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"TCMB b\u00fcnyesindeki uzman ve ekonomistlerin \u201cMerkezin G\u00fcncesi\u201d blogunda yay\u0131mlanan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya g\u00f6re, hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n 12 ay sonras\u0131 enflasyon beklentisi son 10 y\u0131lda \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen enflasyonun belirgin \u00fczerinde seyretti. 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