{"id":3964,"date":"2026-01-29T14:48:57","date_gmt":"2026-01-29T11:48:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/?p=3964"},"modified":"2026-01-29T14:49:22","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T11:49:22","slug":"tcmb-analizi-2025te-hizmet-enflasyonunu-egitim-kira-ve-yerel-hizmetler-surukledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/01\/29\/tcmb-analizi-2025te-hizmet-enflasyonunu-egitim-kira-ve-yerel-hizmetler-surukledi\/","title":{"rendered":"TCMB analizi: 2025\u2019te hizmet enflasyonunu e\u011fitim, kira ve \u201cyerel hizmetler\u201d s\u00fcr\u00fckledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019nda (TCMB) g\u00f6rev yapan ekonomistler Aysu \u00c7elgin ve Fethi \u00d6\u011f\u00fcn\u00e7, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde hizmet kalemlerinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada, t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi (T\u00dcFE) i\u00e7inde 2025\u2019te en y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steren be\u015fli d\u00fczeydeki alt kalemler s\u0131raland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ilk 30 kalemin 19\u2019unun hizmet grubunda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Analize g\u00f6re hizmet taraf\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 ba\u015fl\u0131k belirleyici oldu: e\u011fitim<\/strong>, kiralar<\/strong> ve yerel nitelikli\/rekabeti s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 hizmetler<\/strong> (berber-kuaf\u00f6r, g\u00fcndelik\u00e7i, veteriner, kuru temizleme, ayakkab\u0131 tamiri gibi) ile \u015fehir i\u00e7i ula\u015ft\u0131rmada y\u00f6netilen-y\u00f6nlendirilen kalemler<\/strong> (taksi, vapur, otob\u00fcs, demiryolu ile \u015fehir i\u00e7i yolcu ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131).<\/p>\n

Analizin tamam\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/p>\n

T\u00fcketici enflasyonu 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 30,9 ile tamamlad\u0131. Bu d\u00f6nemde mal enflasyonu y\u00fczde 25 olurken, hizmet enflasyonu y\u00fczde 44 ile y\u00fcksek seyretti. Bu yaz\u0131da, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi (T\u00dcFE) i\u00e7inde en y\u00fcksek fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6steren hizmet alt kalemlerini inceliyor ve bu kalemlerde enflasyonun neden g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fini ele al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n

Be\u015fli d\u00fczeydeki fiyat endekslerinin 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 s\u0131raland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, en y\u00fcksek fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6steren ilk 30 kalemin 19\u2019unun hizmet grubunda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Hizmet taraf\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 grup \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: (i) e\u011fitim, (ii) kira ve (iii) yerel nitelikli ve rekabetin g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu hizmet kalemleri (Grafik 1).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(i) E\u011fitim Hizmetleri<\/h3>\n

2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda en y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steren kalemler aras\u0131nda e\u011fitim hizmetleri ilk s\u0131rada yer al\u0131yor. Daha uzun bir vadede bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6rne\u011fin 2019 sonuna k\u0131yasla t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 8 kat artarken e\u011fitim hizmetleri kalemi 10 kat artm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu d\u00f6nemde \u00f6zellikle \u00fcniversite \u00fccretlerinin 15,1 kat ile endeks i\u00e7inde en y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steren d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc alt kalem olmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n

E\u011fitim \u00fccretlerinde kaydedilen art\u0131\u015flarda, y\u00f6netmeliklere ba\u011fl\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f enflasyona endeksleme mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n rol\u00fc de belirgin oldu. \u00d6rne\u011fin, \u00d6zel \u00d6\u011fretim Kurumlar\u0131 Y\u00f6netmeli\u011fi yak\u0131n d\u00f6neme kadar 12 ayl\u0131k ortalama t\u00fcketici ve yurt i\u00e7i \u00fcretici fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 esas alan; fiilen son 24 ay\u0131n etkisini i\u00e7eren bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve sunuyordu. 5 Eyl\u00fcl 2025 tarihinde yap\u0131lan d\u00fczenleme ile cari y\u0131la ait y\u0131l sonu fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na dayal\u0131; son 12 ay\u0131n etkisini yans\u0131tan bir de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gidildi.<\/p>\n

Eski \u00e7er\u00e7evede, ekonomideki beklenmedik geli\u015fmelerin fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131 daha uzun bir zamana yay\u0131l\u0131yordu. Enflasyonun y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u00fcrecinde fiyat\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde uyarlayamayan kurumlar dezavantajl\u0131 duruma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyordu. \u00d6te yandan \u015foklar\u0131n etkisi zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, fiyat ayarlamalar\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f 24 ay\u0131n etkisini i\u00e7eren y\u00fcksek enflasyona endekslendi\u011fi i\u00e7in dezenflasyonun h\u0131z\u0131 yava\u015f seyrediyordu. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan, son d\u00fczenleme de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini endeksleme mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece zay\u0131flatarak dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecini destekleyecek bir ad\u0131m olarak okumak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n

(ii) Kiralar<\/h3>\n

Hizmet enflasyonunda y\u00fcksek seyriyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir di\u011fer kalem kiralar. Deprem, kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm, demografik unsurlar, kira art\u0131\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 ve s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerin \u00e7o\u011funlukla y\u0131lda bir kez ge\u00e7mi\u015f enflasyona endekslenerek yenilenmesi gibi konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne \u00f6zg\u00fc etkenler, kira enflasyonunun ataletini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n konut piyasas\u0131na aktar\u0131m\u0131 gecikmeli ger\u00e7ekle\u015febiliyor. Arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc politikalar\u0131n (kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm, sosyal konut projeleri vb.) etkisi orta-uzun vadede ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, kira enflasyonunun yava\u015flamakla birlikte di\u011fer hizmet kalemlerine k\u0131yasla bir s\u00fcre daha ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca, kira ve e\u011fitim gibi hizmetlerin enflasyon \u00fczerindeki etkisi, t\u00fcketim pay\u0131 \u00fczerinden olu\u015fan do\u011frudan katk\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fil. Bu sekt\u00f6rlerdeki fiyatlamalar, hanehalklar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7esi kanal\u0131yla da enflasyon \u00fczerinde ikincil etkiler do\u011furabilme potansiyeline sahip. \u0130\u015fverenler ve kendi hesab\u0131na \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin ya da sunduklar\u0131 hizmetlerin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 belirlemede, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar ise \u00fccret taleplerinde, kendi b\u00fct\u00e7elerinde ilgili \u00f6demelerdeki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 dikkate alabiliyor.<\/p>\n

(iii) Yerel ve Rekabeti S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 Hizmet Kalemleri<\/h3>\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc grup ise, rekabetin g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu yerel nitelikli hizmet kalemleri (berber\/kuaf\u00f6r, g\u00fcndelik\u00e7i, veteriner hizmetleri, kuru temizleme, ayakkab\u0131 tamiri vb.) ile ula\u015ft\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik y\u00f6netilen-y\u00f6nlendirilen kalemlerden (vapur \u00fccretleri, taksi, otob\u00fcs ile \u015fehir i\u00e7i yolcu ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve demiryolu ile yolcu ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131) olu\u015fmakta.[1]<\/sup>\u00a0Bu ula\u015ft\u0131rma kalemlerinin ortak \u00f6zelli\u011fi yine yerel nitelikte olmalar\u0131 ve fiyatlama s\u00fcrecinin yerel y\u00f6netimlerce idari veya yar\u0131-idari kararlar arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla \u015fekillenmesi.<\/p>\n

Bu hizmetlerin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc emek yo\u011fun ve fiyatlar\u0131 do\u011frudan hizmeti \u00fcreten ki\u015finin gelirini olu\u015fturuyor. Bu bak\u0131mdan, bu tarz hizmetlerde faaliyet g\u00f6sterenler i\u00e7in sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki a\u015f\u0131nmay\u0131 telafi etme \u00e7abas\u0131 ya da ki\u015finin gelir ve enflasyon beklentisi \u00f6nemli. Bu kalemlerde birim zamanda sunulan hizmet kapasitesi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fundan otomasyon veya verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla birim maliyeti azaltmak \u00e7o\u011fu zaman g\u00fc\u00e7. Bu hizmetler il\/il\u00e7e\/mahalle \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde sunuluyor ve kimi zaman ki\u015fisel ili\u015fkilere de dayal\u0131 (mahalle berberi gibi) olabiliyor. \u015eehir i\u00e7i ula\u015ft\u0131rma hizmetleri gibi alanlarda t\u00fcketici talebi, fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ra\u011fmen devam edebiliyor. Bu t\u00fcr yerel hizmetlerde t\u00fcketicinin ikame imk\u00e2nlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131na da ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, fiyat rekabeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalabiliyor. Bu \u00f6zellikler, hizmeti arz edenlerin fiyatlama g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131rarak hizmet enflasyonunun mal enflasyonuna k\u0131yasla daha kal\u0131c\u0131 bir seyir izlemesine neden oluyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130zleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcmde, s\u00f6z\u00fc edilen hizmet kalemlerinin t\u00fcketici enflasyonuna katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hesapl\u0131yoruz. S\u00f6z konusu \u00fc\u00e7 grubun t\u00fcketici enflasyonuna katk\u0131s\u0131 11,3 puan ile May\u0131s\u2013Haziran 2024 d\u00f6neminde zirveye ula\u015f\u0131yor (Grafik 2). 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 sonu itibar\u0131yla bu katk\u0131 7,8 puana gerilemi\u015f olsa da halen y\u00fcksek. Y\u0131l sonu itibar\u0131yla kira, e\u011fitim ve yerel\/rekabeti g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 hizmet kalemlerinin enflasyona katk\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131yla 4,2, 1,5 ve 2,1 puan d\u00fczeyinde. \u0130ncelenen hizmet kalemleri t\u00fcketici enflasyonunun yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rtte birini olu\u015fturuyor (Grafik 3). Ayr\u0131ca, t\u00fcketici enflasyonundaki gerilemeye ra\u011fmen bu \u00fc\u00e7 grubun enflasyona katk\u0131s\u0131 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 boyunca y\u00fcksek seyrederek dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinde \u00f6nemli bir kat\u0131l\u0131\u011fa neden oluyor. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle yerel\/rekabeti g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 hizmet kalemlerinin enflasyona katk\u0131s\u0131 ayn\u0131 kalm\u0131\u015f. Nitekim, bu d\u00f6nemde kira ve e\u011fitim enflasyonlar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131yla 44 ve 25 puan gerilerken, yerel\/rekabeti g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 hizmet kalemlerinin enflasyonundaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f 2 puan ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda hizmet enflasyonunun y\u00fcksek seyrinde e\u011fitim ve kira yan\u0131nda yerel nitelikli ve rekabetin g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu kalemler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. E\u011fitimde yap\u0131lan son d\u00fczenleme de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin, ge\u00e7mi\u015f enflasyona endeksleme mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece zay\u0131flatarak dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecini desteklemesini bekliyoruz. Kira taraf\u0131nda ise gerek mevsim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f veriler gerekse kiralara y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler, ana e\u011filimin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, \u015fehir i\u00e7i ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k, berber\/kuaf\u00f6r, g\u00fcndelik\u00e7i ve kuru temizleme gibi yerel ve rekabeti g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 hizmet kalemlerinde g\u00f6zlenen fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131; maliyet ve talep unsurlar\u0131na ek olarak gelir beklentileri, piyasa yap\u0131s\u0131 ve fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirilebilecek kat\u0131l\u0131klar bar\u0131nd\u0131rabiliyor. Bu kat\u0131l\u0131klar, enflasyonun seyrini etkileyerek dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecini zorla\u015ft\u0131ran unsurlar aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

[1]\u00a0Ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011fa y\u00f6nelik kalemlerin ilk s\u0131ralarda yer almas\u0131, ilk olarak akaryak\u0131t maliyetlerinin etkisini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcrmekte. Ancak, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 21,5 olmas\u0131, maliyet kanal\u0131ndan ziyade di\u011fer unsurlar\u0131n da rol\u00fc olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019nda g\u00f6rev yapan ekonomistler Aysu \u00c7elgin ve Fethi \u00d6\u011f\u00fcn\u00e7\u2019\u00fcn de\u011ferlendirmesine g\u00f6re, 2025\u2019te t\u00fcketici enflasyonu %30,9 olurken mal enflasyonu %25\u2019te kald\u0131; hizmet enflasyonu ise %44 ile belirgin bi\u00e7imde ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Analiz, hizmet fiyatlar\u0131ndaki kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6zellikle e\u011fitim, kira ve rekabetin g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu yerel hizmet kalemlerinde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3965,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3964","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiz"],"yoast_head":"\nTCMB analizi: 2025\u2019te hizmet enflasyonunu e\u011fitim, kira ve \u201cyerel hizmetler\u201d s\u00fcr\u00fckledi - Merceknet Haber<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/01\/29\/tcmb-analizi-2025te-hizmet-enflasyonunu-egitim-kira-ve-yerel-hizmetler-surukledi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"TCMB analizi: 2025\u2019te hizmet enflasyonunu e\u011fitim, kira ve \u201cyerel hizmetler\u201d s\u00fcr\u00fckledi - Merceknet Haber\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019nda g\u00f6rev yapan ekonomistler Aysu \u00c7elgin ve Fethi \u00d6\u011f\u00fcn\u00e7\u2019\u00fcn de\u011ferlendirmesine g\u00f6re, 2025\u2019te t\u00fcketici enflasyonu %30,9 olurken mal enflasyonu %25\u2019te kald\u0131; hizmet enflasyonu ise %44 ile belirgin bi\u00e7imde ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 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