Uluslararas\u0131 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Fitch Ratings, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmesini yay\u0131mlad\u0131. Kurulu\u015f, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin uzun vadeli yabanc\u0131 para cinsinden kredi notunu \u201cBB-\u201d seviyesinde teyit ederken, kredi notu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn \u201cdura\u011fan\u201d oldu\u011funu bildirdi.<\/p>\n
\u201cBB-\u201d kredi notu, yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir seviyenin alt\u0131nda bulunurken, \u201cdura\u011fan\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ise k\u0131sa ve orta vadede kredi notunda de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmas\u0131 ihtimalinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kamu borcu ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc nota destek sa\u011flad\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Fitch taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamada, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kredi notunu destekleyen ba\u015fl\u0131ca unsurlar aras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kamu borcu, b\u00fcy\u00fck ve \u00e7e\u015fitlendirilmi\u015f ekonomi, ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen gelirin benzer kredi notuna sahip \u00fclkelerin \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131 ve dayan\u0131kl\u0131 bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc g\u00f6sterildi.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ge\u00e7mi\u015fte ya\u015fanan ekonomik ve finansal stres d\u00f6nemlerinde d\u0131\u015f finansmana eri\u015fimini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmesinin de kredi profili a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n Kurulu\u015f, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin \u00fcretim kapasitesi, geni\u015f i\u00e7 pazar\u0131 ve ekonomik \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011finin \u201cBB\u201d kredi notu grubundaki di\u011fer \u00fclkelerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir avantaj olu\u015fturdu\u011funu kaydetti.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini<\/strong><\/p>\n Fitch, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin potansiyel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 4\u2019e yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n Kurulu\u015fun tahminlerine g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2027 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise h\u0131zlanarak y\u00fczde 4,4 seviyesine ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n 2026 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131, kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131ndaki daralma ve i\u00e7 talebi s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya y\u00f6nelik uygulamalar\u0131n ekonomik faaliyet \u00fczerindeki etkilerine i\u015faret ediyor. 2027 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen daha y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 ise ekonomik dengelenmenin ard\u0131ndan \u00fcretim ve t\u00fcketim faaliyetlerinde toparlanma beklentisini yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisi y\u00fczde 29,5<\/strong><\/p>\n Fitch de\u011ferlendirmesinde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki enflasyon s\u00fcrecine de geni\u015f yer verdi.<\/p>\n Haziran 2026 itibar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 32 seviyesinde bulunan y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonunda y\u00fczde 29,5\u2019e gerilemesinin beklendi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<\/p>\n Kurulu\u015f, enflasyonda kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rmesine ra\u011fmen fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seviyelerde kalmaya devam edece\u011fini belirtti. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede uygulanacak para ve maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kredi notunun gelece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6nemde oldu\u011fu vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekildi<\/strong><\/p>\n Fitch, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n fonlama maliyetini 300 baz puan art\u0131rmas\u0131 ve kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tedbirleri de de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n att\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n, T\u00fcrk liras\u0131nda istikrar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesine ve uluslararas\u0131 rezervlerin yeniden art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n A\u00e7\u0131klamada, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ilk d\u00f6neminde T\u00fcrk liras\u0131ndaki dalgalanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak amac\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalelerinin ard\u0131ndan rezervlerde k\u0131smi bir toparlanma ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n Br\u00fct d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin 167 milyar dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor<\/strong><\/p>\n Fitch, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin br\u00fct d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin 2026 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonunda 167 milyar dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n Rezervlerde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilece\u011fi ve d\u0131\u015f finansmana ili\u015fkin riskleri azaltabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n Kurulu\u015f, rezervlerin kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, d\u00f6viz talebinin kontrol alt\u0131nda tutulmas\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n kredi notu \u00fczerinde olumlu etki olu\u015fturabilece\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n Kredi notu hangi \u015fartlarda y\u00fckseltilebilir?<\/strong><\/p>\n Fitch, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kredi notunun y\u00fckseltilebilmesi i\u00e7in gerekli \u015fartlar\u0131 da s\u0131ralad\u0131.<\/p>\n Buna g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131nda s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanmas\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f finansal tamponlar\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, kredi notunda art\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7abilecek ba\u015fl\u0131ca geli\u015fmeler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekleyecek s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funun kararl\u0131l\u0131kla s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ve ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 politikalara y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcvenin artmas\u0131 da olas\u0131 bir not art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n temel \u015fartlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda g\u00f6sterildi.<\/p>\n Fitch\u2019in de\u011ferlendirmesi, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kamu borcu, b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomik yap\u0131s\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemi gibi avantajlara sahip oldu\u011funu ortaya koyarken, y\u00fcksek enflasyon, d\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131 ve rezervlerin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi gereklili\u011finin kredi notu \u00fczerinde belirleyici olmaya devam edece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Uluslararas\u0131 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Fitch Ratings, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin uzun vadeli kredi notunu \u201cBB-\u201d, not g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ise \u201cdura\u011fan\u201d olarak korudu. Kurulu\u015f, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2026\u2019da y\u00fczde 2,8, 2027\u2019de ise y\u00fczde 4,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini beklerken, y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminini y\u00fczde 29,5 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":38337,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[10035,6918,1839],"class_list":["post-38336","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-fitchratings","tag-kredinotu","tag-turkiyeekonomisi"],"yoast_head":"\n