{"id":3631,"date":"2026-01-27T21:09:25","date_gmt":"2026-01-27T18:09:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/?p=3631"},"modified":"2026-01-27T21:09:25","modified_gmt":"2026-01-27T18:09:25","slug":"gaziantepten-verilen-asil-mesaj-faiz-tartismasi-degil-beklenti-ve-davranis-tartismasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/01\/27\/gaziantepten-verilen-asil-mesaj-faiz-tartismasi-degil-beklenti-ve-davranis-tartismasi\/","title":{"rendered":"Gaziantep\u2019ten verilen as\u0131l mesaj: Faiz tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 de\u011fil, \u201cbeklenti\u201d ve \u201cdavran\u0131\u015f\u201d tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Dr. Fatih Karahan\u2019\u0131n Gaziantep\u2019te sundu\u011fu \u201cPara Politikas\u0131 ve Makroekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u201d metni, ilk bak\u0131\u015fta klasik bir sunum gibi okunabilir: Dezenflasyon s\u00fcr\u00fcyor, s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f korunacak, beklentiler \u00e7\u0131palanacak. Fakat slaytlar\u0131n dili, as\u0131l a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u201cfaiz seviyesi\u201dnden \u00e7ok <strong>fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131, hizmet kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve beklenti setleri<\/strong> \u00fczerinde topland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. \u201cBug\u00fcn faiz ne olur?\u201d sorusunu, \u201cFaizler hangi \u015fartlarda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fer?\u201d sorusuna \u00e7eviren bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve bu.<\/p>\n<p><strong>1) Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n anlat\u0131s\u0131: \u201cmesafe\u201d ve \u201c\u00e7\u0131pa\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Sunumun giri\u015findeki \u00e7er\u00e7eve net: TCMB, dezenflasyonun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve s\u00fcrece\u011fini; bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te <strong>beklentileri kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00e7\u0131palamak i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fini<\/strong> vurguluyor.<br \/>\nBu vurgu, teknik bir c\u00fcmlenin \u00f6tesinde, politika ileti\u015fiminin merkezine \u201cbeklenti y\u00f6netimi\u201dni koyuyor: Piyasan\u0131n zihnindeki enflasyon patikas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmad\u0131k\u00e7a, faiz tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 \u201ckal\u0131c\u0131\u201d de\u011fil \u201cge\u00e7ici\u201d kal\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu nedenle Karahan, sahay\u0131 da ihmal etmeyen bir ileti\u015fim hatt\u0131 kurduklar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zellikle anlat\u0131yor: 2013\u2019ten bu yana firmalarla y\u00fcz y\u00fcze g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler; Gaziantep ve b\u00f6lge illerde 2025\u2019te <strong>457<\/strong>, son 5 y\u0131lda <strong>2.585<\/strong> firma g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi ve bu bilgilerin karar s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinde kullan\u0131lmas\u0131\u2026<br \/>\nBunun sat\u0131r aras\u0131 \u015fu: \u201cModel ne diyorsa o\u201d de\u011fil; <strong>beklenti, maliyet ve talep kanallar\u0131n\u0131n<\/strong> sahadaki kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da izleniyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2) \u201cNormalle\u015fme\u201d g\u00f6stergeleri: Rezerv\u2013KKM hatt\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Sunumun \u201c\u00f6zet de\u011ferlendirme\u201d k\u0131sm\u0131 iki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veriyle a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Rezervlerde <strong>145+ milyar dolar art\u0131\u015f<\/strong>,<\/li>\n<li><strong>143 milyar dolara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f KKM bakiyesinin s\u0131f\u0131ra yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong> bilgisi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu ikili, teknik olarak iki farkl\u0131 \u015feyi anlat\u0131yor ama birlikte okundu\u011funda \u201cfinansal mimarinin normalle\u015fmesi\u201d mesaj\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor: D\u00f6viz likiditesi\/rezerv tamponu ile KKM gibi ara d\u00f6neme ait bir enstr\u00fcman\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi ayn\u0131 sayfada yan yana duruyor. Sunum, bunu b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve risk primindeki iyile\u015fme ile birlikte an\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>3) Dezenflasyon nereden geliyor: yay\u0131l\u0131m, ritim ve \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d hizmetler<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Karahan\u2019\u0131n sunumunda dezenflasyonun hik\u00e2yesi \u00fc\u00e7 katmanda kuruluyor: <strong>talepte dengelenme, fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda normalle\u015fme, beklentilerde iyile\u015fme.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Veri seti de buna yaslan\u0131yor: Y\u0131l sonu enflasyonu 2022\u20132025 \u00e7izgisinde <strong>%64,3 \u2192 %64,8 \u2192 %44,4 \u2192 %30,9<\/strong> olarak sunuluyor.<br \/>\nDaha kritik olan ritim: Enflasyonun <strong>63 ay sonra iki ay \u00fcst \u00fcste %1\u2019in alt\u0131nda<\/strong> ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi vurgusu, \u201cana e\u011filim\u201d iddias\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na \u00e7izgi \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Yay\u0131l\u0131m taraf\u0131nda da \u201cgenele yay\u0131lan gerileme\u201d ifadesi a\u00e7\u0131k: May\u0131s 2024\u2013Aral\u0131k 2025 d\u00f6neminde y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019nin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra temel mallar ve g\u0131da enflasyonundaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, dezenflasyonun sadece birka\u00e7 kaleme s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Ama sunum, tam bu noktada \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da net bi\u00e7imde koyuyor: <strong>Kira ve e\u011fitim kalemleri hizmet enflasyonunu yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor.<\/strong><br \/>\nYani \u00e7ekirdek tart\u0131\u015fma \u015furada d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcmleniyor: Mal taraf\u0131nda so\u011fuma daha h\u0131zl\u0131; hizmetlerde ise kat\u0131l\u0131k h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirleyici.<\/p>\n<p><strong>4) Hizmetlerde k\u0131r\u0131lma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131: e\u011fitim d\u00fczenlemesi ve i\u015fyeri kiralar\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Sunumun en politik-ekonomik b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc burada: \u201cHizmetlerde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kat\u0131l\u0131k 2026\u2019da dezenflasyonu destekleyecektir.\u201d<br \/>\nBunu destekleyen iki somut alan g\u00f6steriliyor:<\/p>\n<p><strong>E\u011fitim:<\/strong> \u201cD\u00fczenleme ile 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 e\u011fitim \u00fccretlerindeki art\u0131\u015flar s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.\u201d<br \/>\nBu, hizmet enflasyonunun bir alt kaleminde \u201cidari\/kurumsal\u201d bir frene i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130\u015fyeri kiralar\u0131:<\/strong> Ofis kiralar\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 <strong>2023\u00c73\u2019te 104\u2019ten 2025\u00c73\u2019te 44\u2019e<\/strong>, d\u00fckk\u00e2n kiralar\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 <strong>114\u2019ten 41\u2019e<\/strong> geriliyor.<br \/>\nVe slayt c\u00fcmlesi bunu do\u011frudan maliyet kanal\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131yor: \u201c\u0130\u015fyeri kira enflasyonundaki gerileme maliyet y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131lar\u0131 hafifletmektedir.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Bu iki ba\u015fl\u0131k, TCMB\u2019nin \u201chizmet kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d sorununu sadece teorik bir tart\u0131\u015fma olarak de\u011fil; <strong>fiyat olu\u015fum mekanizmas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale eden\/kolayla\u015ft\u0131ran<\/strong> unsurlar \u00fczerinden izledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>5) Maliyet cephesi: \u00dcFE\u2019ler ve in\u015faat maliyeti a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 geliyor<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Sunumun bir di\u011fer omurgas\u0131, dezenflasyonun maliyet taraf\u0131ndaki kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Hizmet \u00dcFE: <strong>57,7 \u2192 27,7<\/strong> (May\u0131s 2024\u2013Aral\u0131k 2025),<\/li>\n<li>Yurt \u0130\u00e7i \u00dcFE: <strong>84,6 \u2192 34,9<\/strong> (May\u0131s 2024\u2013Kas\u0131m 2025),<\/li>\n<li>\u0130n\u015faat Maliyet Endeksi: <strong>72,8 \u2192 23,9<\/strong> (May\u0131s 2024\u2013Kas\u0131m 2025).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, \u015firketlerin \u201cyar\u0131n fiyat ne olur?\u201d sorusuna verdi\u011fi refleksi de etkiler; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman talep kadar maliyet beklentisiyle de \u015fekillenir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>6) Beklenti setleri: as\u0131l sava\u015f alan\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Karahan\u2019\u0131n \u201c\u00e7\u0131palama\u201d vurgusu, beklenti verileriyle besleniyor: 12 ay sonras\u0131 enflasyon beklentileri May\u0131s 2024\u2019ten Ocak 2026\u2019ya;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131nda <strong>33,2 \u2192 22,2<\/strong>,<\/li>\n<li>Reel sekt\u00f6rde <strong>56,0 \u2192 32,9<\/strong>,<\/li>\n<li>Hanehalk\u0131nda <strong>76,1 \u2192 52,1<\/strong> geriliyor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Beklentiler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor; fakat seviye fark\u0131 da b\u00fcy\u00fck. Bu fark, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n neden \u201csadece faiz\u201d olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; ileti\u015fim, g\u00fcven ve davran\u0131\u015f kanallar\u0131n\u0131n neden s\u00fcrekli vurguland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>7) \u201cFaizler nas\u0131l d\u00fc\u015fer?\u201d b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn politik anlam\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Sunum, faiz tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bir \u015farta ba\u011fl\u0131yor ve bunu \u00e7ok \u00e7\u0131plak bir c\u00fcmleyle s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor: <strong>\u201cFaiz indirimleri ancak enflasyon kontrol alt\u0131ndayken etkili olabilir.\u201d<\/strong><br \/>\nAyr\u0131ca PPK yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n \u201cenflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc odakl\u0131, toplant\u0131 bazl\u0131 ve ihtiyatl\u0131\u201d y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclece\u011fi; ara hedeflerden belirgin sapmada duru\u015fun s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 notu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi \u201ctakvim\u201d yerine bir \u201ckriter seti\u201d koyma \u00e7abas\u0131d\u0131r: Ne zaman sorusundan \u00e7ok, hangi ko\u015fullarda sorusu.<\/p>\n<p>Risk primi kanal\u0131na ili\u015fkin slaytlar da ayn\u0131 hik\u00e2yeyi tamaml\u0131yor: \u201cRisk primindeki gerileme yabanc\u0131 para faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u201d ifadesi, CDS ve tahvil faizi hareketleriyle birlikte veriliyor.<br \/>\nYani faizlerin kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, sadece politika faiziyle de\u011fil; <strong>risk primi, beklenti ve enflasyon ana e\u011filimi<\/strong> ile birlikte okunuyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>8) \u0130hracat tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na net m\u00fcdahale: Kur de\u011fil, d\u0131\u015f talep<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Sunumun belki de en \u201ctart\u0131\u015fma kapatan\u201d k\u0131sm\u0131 ihracat b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde: \u201c\u0130hracat\u0131n temel belirleyicisi d\u0131\u015f talep geli\u015fmeleridir.\u201d<br \/>\nVe bunu esnekliklerle \u00e7iviliyor: D\u0131\u015f talep b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi 1 puan artarsa ihracat <strong>%2,3<\/strong> art\u0131yor; reel kur <strong>%1<\/strong> d\u00fc\u015ferse ihracat <strong>%0,2<\/strong> art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu iki say\u0131, \u201crekabet i\u00e7in kur\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 otomatikman k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclt\u00fcp \u201cpazar\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Sunum, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve ana pazar beklentilerinin g\u00f6rece olumlu seyretti\u011fini de not ediyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Son s\u00f6z: Gaziantep sunumu bir \u201ce\u015fik metni\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu sunum, bir yandan dezenflasyonun say\u0131sal ilerlemesini g\u00f6steriyor; di\u011fer yandan \u201czor b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u201de i\u015faret ediyor: Hizmetlerde kat\u0131l\u0131k, kira\u2013e\u011fitim etkisi ve beklentilerin kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilmesi. TCMB\u2019nin iddias\u0131, s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fun talep\u2013kur\u2013beklenti kanallar\u0131 \u00fczerinden dezenflasyonu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n<p>Benim okudu\u011fum sat\u0131r aras\u0131 ise \u015fu: <strong>Merkez Bankas\u0131, faiz tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bir sonu\u00e7 c\u00fcmlesine; enflasyon ve beklenti tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 ise bir \u201c\u00f6n ko\u015ful\u201d c\u00fcmlesine yerle\u015ftiriyor.<\/strong><br \/>\n2026\u2019n\u0131n politik-ekonomik gerilimi de b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde burada \u015fekillenecek: Dezenflasyonun \u201critmi\u201d korunacak m\u0131; hizmetlerdeki kat\u0131l\u0131k ger\u00e7ekten k\u0131r\u0131lacak m\u0131; beklentiler, \u00f6zellikle reel sekt\u00f6r ve hanehalk\u0131nda, kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilebilecek mi?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan, Gaziantep\u2019te yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sunumda dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirterek fiyat istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flanana kadar s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funun korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. Karahan, faiz indirimlerinin ancak enflasyon kontrol alt\u0131ndayken etkili olabilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":3632,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiz","category-kose-yazilari"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gaziantep\u2019ten verilen as\u0131l mesaj: Faiz tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 de\u011fil, \u201cbeklenti\u201d ve \u201cdavran\u0131\u015f\u201d tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 - Merceknet Haber<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/01\/27\/gaziantepten-verilen-asil-mesaj-faiz-tartismasi-degil-beklenti-ve-davranis-tartismasi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gaziantep\u2019ten verilen as\u0131l mesaj: Faiz tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 de\u011fil, \u201cbeklenti\u201d ve \u201cdavran\u0131\u015f\u201d tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 - Merceknet Haber\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan, Gaziantep\u2019te yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sunumda dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirterek fiyat istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flanana kadar s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funun korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. 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