Uluslararas\u0131 bas\u0131nda yer alan de\u011ferlendirmelerde, g\u00f6sterilerin ekonomik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar ve para birimindeki sert de\u011fer kayb\u0131yla ba\u015flay\u0131p k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede daha geni\u015f siyasi taleplere evrildi\u011fi vurgulan\u0131yor. \u0130ran y\u00f6netiminin ise bir yandan g\u00fcvenlik \u00f6nlemlerini sertle\u015ftirdi\u011fi, di\u011fer yandan internet kesintisiyle \u00fclkeyi d\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnyadan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde izole etti\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Euronews\u2019in derledi\u011fi \u00e7er\u00e7evede, bundan sonra ya\u015fanabilecekler i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan 5 olas\u0131 senaryo<\/strong> \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/p>\n 1) G\u00fcvenlik bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n sertle\u015fmesi<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130lk senaryo, devletin \u201cg\u00fcvenlik\u201d merkezli yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctmesi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00fcst g\u00fcvenlik organlar\u0131ndan Y\u00fcksek Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019nin protestolara \u00e7ok sert kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong> vurgusu yapan bir karar yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131l\u0131yor. G\u00f6sterilerin \u201cd\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nlendirme\u201d ile ili\u015fkilendirilmesi, protestocular\u0131n \u201ci\u00e7 muhalefet\u201dten ziyade \u201ctehdit unsuru\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu da daha a\u011f\u0131r m\u00fcdahale ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n 2) Devlet ayg\u0131t\u0131nda \u00e7atlak ihtimali<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130kinci senaryo, g\u00fcvenlik b\u00fcrokrasisi ve askeri yap\u0131 i\u00e7inde kopu\u015flar<\/strong> ya da sadakat erozyonu ya\u015fanmas\u0131. Euronews, baz\u0131 kentlerdeki g\u00f6sterilerin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ve uluslararas\u0131 s\u00f6ylemlerin (\u00f6zellikle Trump\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerine dair iddialar\u0131n\u0131n) bu ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktar\u0131yor. Ekonomik darbo\u011faz, yolsuzluk alg\u0131s\u0131 ve elit ya\u015fam tarz\u0131na dair tart\u0131\u015fmalar gibi unsurlar\u0131n, baz\u0131 kesimlerde sadakati zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendirmesi yap\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n 3) Trump\u2013Pehlevi hatt\u0131 ve \u201cgeri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u201d tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc senaryo, ABD siyasetindeki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ve s\u00fcrg\u00fcndeki Veliaht Prens R\u0131za Pehlevi\u2019nin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn, protesto iklimini nas\u0131l etkileyebilece\u011fine odaklan\u0131yor. Euronews\u2019e g\u00f6re Trump\u2019\u0131n Pehlevi hakk\u0131ndaki s\u00f6zleri belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131rken, baz\u0131 yerlerde monar\u015fi yanl\u0131s\u0131 sloganlar\u0131n yeniden duyulmas\u0131 protesto s\u00f6yleminde bir de\u011fi\u015fim i\u015fareti olarak okunuyor. \u0130ran lideri Ali Hamaney\u2019in ise geri ad\u0131m at\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131 verdi\u011fi ve g\u00f6sterileri d\u0131\u015f etkiyle ili\u015fkilendirdi\u011fi aktar\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n 4) Sistem i\u00e7i reform ve \u201cBonapartist\u201d ara form\u00fcl<\/strong><\/p>\n D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc senaryoda, rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finden ziyade sistem i\u00e7inden bir fig\u00fcr\u00fcn<\/strong> kontroll\u00fc reformlarla devreye sokulmas\u0131 ihtimali tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede baz\u0131 \u00e7evrelerin eski Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Hasan Ruhani gibi isimleri anmas\u0131 ya da \u201cd\u00fczeni sa\u011flayacak\u201d daha az bilinen bir askeri fig\u00fcr ihtimalini dillendirmesi dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Ancak bu form\u00fcl\u00fcn, g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezlerince engellenebilece\u011fi; ayr\u0131ca sokaktaki dalgan\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn bu senaryoyu zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n 5) \u00dcst d\u00fczey kopu\u015f\/ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f iddialar\u0131 ve \u201cne Suriye ne Venezuela\u201d modeli<\/strong><\/p>\n Be\u015finci senaryo, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00fcst d\u00fczey isimlerinde \u00fclkeyi terk etme\/ka\u00e7ma gibi geli\u015fmelerin ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi ihtimalini ele al\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede baz\u0131 iddialar ve spek\u00fclasyonlar dola\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, ancak bunlar\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frulanm\u0131\u015f bilgiler olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 not ediliyor. Di\u011fer yandan Venezuela \u00f6rne\u011finin, y\u00f6netim yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n beklenen h\u0131zda \u00e7\u00f6kmedi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131rken; olas\u0131 bir ge\u00e7i\u015fte \u00c7in ve Rusya gibi akt\u00f6rlerin pasif kalmayaca\u011f\u0131 ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n \u201ctek bir kal\u0131ba\u201d s\u0131\u011fmayabilece\u011fi vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n D\u0131\u015f tepkiler ve \u201cdo\u011frulama\u201d sorunu<\/strong><\/p>\n Protestolara dair haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda en kritik ba\u015fl\u0131klardan biri de internet kesintisi<\/strong>. Reuters\u2019a konu\u015fan bir Frans\u0131z diplomatik kaynak, \u0130ran\u2019a \u201cazami itidal\u201d \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yaparken; internet karartmas\u0131n\u0131n bilgiye eri\u015fimi ve olaylar\u0131n \u015feffaf bi\u00e7imde izlenmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n Euronews\u2019in alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi\u011fi gibi, internet eri\u015fiminin k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131 hem i\u00e7eriden gelen seslerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 duyulmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor hem de sahadaki y\u00f6nelimleri net okumay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015ftiriyor. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde ya\u015fanacak her k\u0131r\u0131lma, senaryolardan birini h\u0131zla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u0130ran\u2019da son y\u0131llar\u0131n en geni\u015f kat\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmet kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 eylemleri 13\u2019\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcn\u00fcne girerken, internetin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ve zaman zaman neredeyse tamamen kesilmesi \u00fclkedeki bilgi ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Sosyal medya ve mesajla\u015fma uygulamalar\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcler, protestolar\u0131n bir\u00e7ok kente yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etse de, ba\u011flant\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 nedeniyle sahadan gelen bilgilerin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bi\u00e7imde do\u011frulanmas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":353,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiz","category-dunya"],"yoast_head":"\n