{"id":32262,"date":"2026-06-19T16:37:03","date_gmt":"2026-06-19T13:37:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/?p=32262"},"modified":"2026-06-19T16:37:03","modified_gmt":"2026-06-19T13:37:03","slug":"tahran-washington-mutabakati-lubnandaki-dengeleri-nasil-etkileyecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/06\/19\/tahran-washington-mutabakati-lubnandaki-dengeleri-nasil-etkileyecek\/","title":{"rendered":"Tahran-Washington mutabakat\u0131 L\u00fcbnan’daki dengeleri nas\u0131l etkileyecek?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mustafa Yetim<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130STANBUL<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Eski\u015fehir Osmangazi \u00dcniversitesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Do\u00e7. Dr. Mustafa Yetim, \u0130srail’in L\u00fcbnan’daki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n amac\u0131n\u0131 ve son durumu analiz i\u00e7in kaleme ald\u0131.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri-\u0130srail ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flat\u0131lan i\u015fgal giri\u015fiminde, son d\u00f6nemde yo\u011funla\u015fan yat\u0131\u015fma ve nihai olarak anla\u015fma s\u00fcre\u00e7lerine ra\u011fmen, bu i\u015fgalin en \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 alanlar\u0131ndan biri olan L\u00fcbnan cephesinde belirgin bir durulma s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fildir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda sa\u011flanan mutabakat\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u0130srail ile L\u00fcbnan aras\u0131nda ba\u015flat\u0131lan do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere ra\u011fmen \u0130srail, L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n g\u00fcneyindeki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu ba\u011flamda, \u0130ran ile Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan anla\u015fmada taraflar\u0131n derin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz meselesi, n\u00fckleer enerji ve n\u00fckleer silah konusu ile \u0130ran varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n yan\u0131nda, L\u00fcbnan cephesinde ate\u015fkes ve sonras\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcreci de karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130ran taraf\u0131, Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri ile imzalanan mutabakat anla\u015fmas\u0131na L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n da dahil edilmesi ve \u0130srail’in L\u00fcbnan’daki i\u015fgalini sonland\u0131rmas\u0131 gibi konular\u0131 da ekledi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u0130srail, L\u00fcbnan’\u0131 bask\u0131 yoluyla bu s\u00fcrecin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda tutmak istemektedir. Bu durum, son d\u00f6nemde L\u00fcbnan’a y\u00f6nelik s\u00f6ylemlerinde Hizbullah unsurunu \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kararak L\u00fcbnanl\u0131lar\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131k\u0131m, i\u015fgal ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma iklimini Hizbullah’a ba\u011flayan Ba\u015fbakan Binyamin Netanyahu’nun ifadelerinde de g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

L\u00fcbnan’da farkl\u0131 stat\u00fcko in\u015fas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc?<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u0130srail’in i\u015fgal etti\u011fi baz\u0131 L\u00fcbnan tepeleri ve \u015eeba \u00c7iftlikleri ile L\u00fcbnan’da 2000’e kadar s\u00fcren \u0130srail i\u015fgalini gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6steren Hizbullah, bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te t\u00fcm silahs\u0131zlanma \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u0130srail’in i\u015fgali sonland\u0131rmas\u0131 \u015fart\u0131na ba\u011flam\u0131\u015f ve kendisini 1989 Taif Anla\u015fmas\u0131 ile tasfiyesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen bir milis g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak de\u011fil, direni\u015f hareketi olarak tan\u0131mlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

7 Ekim 2023 sonras\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u0130srail, G\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan b\u00f6lgesindeki i\u015fgal a\u011f\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmi\u015ftir. Sonras\u0131nda imzalanan ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131yla iki akt\u00f6r aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar durmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u0130srail, mevcut Kefr \u015euba ve \u015eeba \u00c7iftlikleri i\u015fgaline 5 \u00f6nemli tepeyi daha eklemi\u015ftir. Bu durum, \u0130srail’in Gazze’den ba\u015flayarak L\u00fcbnan-Suriye hatt\u0131nda i\u015fgal b\u00f6lgelerini birle\u015ftirme ve burada kendisinin destekledi\u011fi akt\u00f6rler \u00fczerinden hegemonya tesis etme amac\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015feklinde yorumlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u0130srail, Yahudi radikalizmi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde arzulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lgesel hegemonya d\u00fczeninde i\u015fgal rejimlerini sonland\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi bu rejimleri birle\u015ftirme ve geni\u015fletme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir e\u011filim g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. G\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan ve Kuzey \u0130srail hatt\u0131nda uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r Hizbullah ile \u0130srail aras\u0131nda var olan ve \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan da \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc \u015fekilde desteklenen geleneksel stat\u00fckoyu Gazze soyk\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 sonras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015ftirme \u00e7abalar\u0131, \u0130ran’a y\u00f6nelik i\u015fgal giri\u015fiminden sonra \u00e7ok daha radikal bi\u00e7imde yo\u011funla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu ba\u011flamda \u0130srail, G\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan i\u015fgal b\u00f6lgesi plan\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayarak ve L\u00fcbnan’da kal\u0131c\u0131 i\u015fgal s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini Hizbullah’\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek dile getirerek 7 Ekim \u00f6ncesine d\u00f6nmeyece\u011fine i\u015faret etmi\u015ftir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede \u0130srail, nisan ay\u0131nda G\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n 10 kilometre derinli\u011finde “\u0130leri Savunma Hatt\u0131” ilan ederek i\u015fgal etti\u011fi b\u00f6lgeyi Hizbullah ile aras\u0131nda tampon alan olarak tan\u0131mlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu alanla da yetinmeyen i\u015fgal rejimi, sonras\u0131nda askeri operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler taraf\u0131ndan sald\u0131rmazl\u0131k ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131zl\u0131k alan\u0131 olarak bilinen Litani Nehri’ne ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Daha sonra \u0130srail, i\u015fgalini Beyrut’un 50 kilometre g\u00fcneyinde bulunan Zehrani Nehri’ne kadar geni\u015fletmi\u015ftir. B\u00f6ylelikle Suriye’de Hermon Da\u011f\u0131’nda geni\u015fleyerek devam eden ve \u015eam’a yakla\u015farak tehdit olu\u015fturan \u0130srail y\u00f6netimi, b\u00f6lgenin di\u011fer \u00f6nemli ba\u015fkentlerinden Beyrut’u da Zehrani Nehri \u00f6tesine yayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015fgal rejimiyle tehdit etmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130srail’in \u0130ran’a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla \u015fekillendirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni stat\u00fckonun izleri, b\u00f6lgede giderek geni\u015fleyen ve kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelen i\u015fgal pratiklerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu noktada, Suriye konusunda n\u00fcfuz, konum ve etki a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli mevzi kaybeden \u0130ran y\u00f6netiminin, L\u00fcbnan’da da benzer bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 ya\u015famamak amac\u0131yla \u0130srail’in buradaki i\u015fgalini en az kendisine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar kadar hayati g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve geleneksel stat\u00fckoya d\u00f6n\u00fclmesini hedefledi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir. Di\u011fer bir ifadeyle mesele yaln\u0131zca Hizbullah ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki k\u00f6kl\u00fc ba\u011flardan ibaret de\u011fildir. \u0130ran, Hizbullah’\u0131 ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130srail’i L\u00fcbnan sahas\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131ran ve cayd\u0131ran \u00f6nemli bir unsur olarak g\u00f6rmektedir. Bu hatt\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ya da \u00e7\u00f6kmesi halinde, son \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n da g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi \u00fczere, Direni\u015f Ekseni’nin merkezi konumundaki Tahran kendisini do\u011frudan varolu\u015fsal bir riskle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya g\u00f6rmektedir. Bu nedenle \u0130ran, kendi g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ile Hizbullah’\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde i\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7mi\u015f unsurlar olarak de\u011ferlendirmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Di\u011fer taraftan, \u0130srail’in olu\u015fturmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 stat\u00fckodan vazge\u00e7me niyetinde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, taraflar\u0131n hangi noktada “yeni oyun kurallar\u0131” ortaya koyabilece\u011fi belirsizli\u011fini korumaktad\u0131r. Meselenin \u0130srail-\u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgesel ve Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri boyutuyla k\u00fcresel anlam\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, Hizbullah’\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeydeki y\u0131k\u0131m, maliyet ve kay\u0131plara ra\u011fmen \u00f6zellikle son d\u00f6nemde kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 birinci \u015fah\u0131s g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fl\u00fc dronlarla \u0130srail’in G\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan i\u015fgaline \u00f6nemli bir meydan okumada bulunmas\u0131 da sahadaki denklemlerde etkili olmaktad\u0131r. Bu minvalde diren\u00e7 ve moral kazanan Hizbullah’\u0131n, L\u00fcbnan cephesinde \u0130srail’e kar\u015f\u0131 en az\u0131ndan i\u015fgali yava\u015flatma ve maliyetini art\u0131rma noktas\u0131nda s\u00fcre\u00e7 uzad\u0131k\u00e7a daha fazla kapasite g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/span><\/p>\n

L\u00fcbnan h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin s\u00fcre\u00e7teki rol\u00fc<\/span><\/h2>\n

Bu temel \u00e7eli\u015fkilerin ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde \u0130srail ile L\u00fcbnan h\u00fck\u00fcmeti aras\u0131nda s\u00fcren m\u00fczakerelerin ve uzun aradan sonra ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin de sahadaki Hizbullah-\u0130srail \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n dinamikleri ile \u0130ran-Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri aras\u0131nda imzalanan mutabakat\u0131n seyrine yak\u0131ndan ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu noktada \u0130srail, L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n maruz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015fgal ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrecinin sorumlulu\u011funu Hizbullah’a y\u00fcklemektedir. Ancak \u0130srail’in L\u00fcbnan’a y\u00f6nelik i\u015fgal politikalar\u0131n\u0131n Hizbullah’\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan \u00f6nceye dayanmas\u0131 ve L\u00fcbnan h\u00fck\u00fcmetiyle y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere ra\u011fmen yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7e\u015fitli haritalarla yaln\u0131zca karasal de\u011fil, deniz yetki alanlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin egemenlik haklar\u0131n\u0131 da tart\u0131\u015fmaya a\u00e7mas\u0131, Netanyahu’nun s\u00f6ylemlerinin L\u00fcbnan kamuoyunda Hizbullah ve \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeyi ve mevcut politikalar\u0131na me\u015fruiyet zemini olu\u015fturmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcrmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hizbullah’\u0131n da onay verdi\u011fi ve L\u00fcbnan h\u00fck\u00fcmetiyle imzalanan deniz yetki alanlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin anla\u015fmaya ra\u011fmen, \u0130srail’in a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ileri savunma hatt\u0131 haritas\u0131na L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n deniz alanlar\u0131n\u0131 da dahil etmesi, i\u015fgal politikalar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca kara sahas\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu durum, \u0130srail’in Filistin’den Suriye’ye uzanan i\u015fgal prati\u011fiyle birlikte Do\u011fu Akdeniz’deki deniz yetki alanlar\u0131, enerji rekabeti ve b\u00f6lgesel kutupla\u015fma dinamikleri ba\u011flam\u0131nda da de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret etmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak, \u0130ran ile Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri aras\u0131nda imzalanan \u0130slamabad Mutabakat Anla\u015fmas\u0131’n\u0131n stat\u00fcko ve yeni oyun kurallar\u0131 in\u015fa etme bak\u0131m\u0131ndan en \u00e7etin alanlar\u0131ndan birini L\u00fcbnan cephesi olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Mevcut \u0130srail-L\u00fcbnan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ra\u011fmen \u0130srail’in sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 devam etmektedir. Bu ba\u011flamda, Hizbullah’\u0131 i\u015fgal ve L\u00fcbnan’daki y\u0131k\u0131m\u0131n gerek\u00e7esi olarak sunan Netanyahu h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin, hegemonik ama\u00e7lar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde Levant’ta \u0130srail merkezli bir hiyerar\u015fi tesis etmeyi, di\u011fer akt\u00f6rleri ise \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f ve kaotik halde b\u0131rakmay\u0131 tercih etti\u011fi g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7mamal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

[Do\u00e7. Dr. Mustafa Yetim, Eski\u015fehir Osmangazi \u00dcniversitesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesidir.]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0130ran ile Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri aras\u0131nda imzalanan \u0130slamabad Mutabakat Anla\u015fmas\u0131’n\u0131n, stat\u00fcko ve yeni oyun kurallar\u0131 in\u015fa etme bak\u0131m\u0131ndan en \u00e7etin alanlar\u0131ndan birini L\u00fcbnan cephesi olu\u015fturuyor. Mevcut \u0130srail-L\u00fcbnan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ra\u011fmen \u0130srail’in L\u00fcbnan’a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":32264,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2535,13],"tags":[2129,11240,11241,3475],"class_list":["post-32262","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-3-bolge","category-analiz","tag-analiz","tag-islamabadmutabakati","tag-israilsaldirilari","tag-lubnan"],"yoast_head":"\nTahran-Washington mutabakat\u0131 L\u00fcbnan'daki dengeleri nas\u0131l etkileyecek? - Merceknet Haber<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/06\/19\/tahran-washington-mutabakati-lubnandaki-dengeleri-nasil-etkileyecek\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tahran-Washington mutabakat\u0131 L\u00fcbnan'daki dengeleri nas\u0131l etkileyecek? - Merceknet Haber\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u0130ran ile Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri aras\u0131nda imzalanan \u0130slamabad Mutabakat Anla\u015fmas\u0131'n\u0131n, stat\u00fcko ve yeni oyun kurallar\u0131 in\u015fa etme bak\u0131m\u0131ndan en \u00e7etin alanlar\u0131ndan birini L\u00fcbnan cephesi olu\u015fturuyor. 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