Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc \u00fczerinde belirleyici olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), politika faizini beklentiler do\u011frultusunda y\u00fczde 3,5-3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu.<\/p>\n
Fed’den yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamada, politika faizinin sabit tutulmas\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131n oybirli\u011fiyle al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonun enerji dahil baz\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na yol a\u00e7an arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle bankan\u0131n y\u00fczde 2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret edilen a\u00e7\u0131klamada, Komite’nin fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamaya kararl\u0131 oldu\u011fu vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, Kevin Warsh ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen ilk FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan karar metninin \u00f6nceki a\u00e7\u0131klamalara k\u0131yasla belirgin \u015fekilde k\u0131salt\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkati \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Fed, federal fon oran\u0131na ili\u015fkin y\u0131l sonu tahminini mart ay\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc y\u00fczde 3,4’ten y\u00fczde 3,8’e y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n
Banka, federal fon oran\u0131na ili\u015fkin 2027 tahminini y\u00fczde 3,1’den y\u00fczde 3,6’ya ve 2028 tahminini y\u00fczde 3,1’den y\u00fczde 3,4’e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Fed uzun d\u00f6nem ortalama faiz beklentisini ise y\u00fczde 3,1 olarak korudu.<\/p>\n
S\u00f6z konusu tahminler, Fed’in 2026’da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131labilece\u011finin sinyalini verdi.<\/p>\n
FOMC \u00fcyelerinin gelecekteki faiz beklentilerini g\u00f6steren nokta grafi\u011fi de 18 yetkiliden 9’unun bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n
Bankan\u0131n enflasyon tahminleri ise bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,7’den y\u00fczde 3,6’ya, 2027 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,2’den y\u00fczde 2,3’e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131rken, 2028 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2’de sabit b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD ekonomisine ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini, bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,4’ten y\u00fczde 2,2’ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. B\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini 2027 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,3’te b\u0131rak\u0131l\u0131rken, 2028 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,1’den y\u00fczde 2,2’ye y\u00fckseltildi.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131na ili\u015fkin tahminler bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4,4’ten y\u00fczde 4,3’e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcrken, 2027 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4,3 ve 2028 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4,2 olarak korundu.<\/p>\n
Kevin Warsh, Fed \u00fcyelerinin faiz beklentilerini yans\u0131tan noktasal grafikte kendi tahminine yer vermedi. Bu durum, piyasalarda Fed’in 2012’de ileti\u015fim politikas\u0131n\u0131n bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 uygulamadan uzakla\u015f\u0131labilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik ilk i\u015faretlerden biri olarak de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n
Warsh, bundan \u00f6nceki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda da noktasal grafiklerin faydal\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Metinden, gelecekteki faiz indirimlerine y\u00f6nelik e\u011filime i\u015faret eden ifadelerin \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 da k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkiledi.<\/p>\n
Daha \u00f6nce “nokta” i\u015faretini vermekten ka\u00e7\u0131nan tek Fed politika yap\u0131c\u0131s\u0131, d\u00fczenli olarak k\u0131sa vadeli faiz oran\u0131 tahminlerini sunan ancak uzun vadeli n\u00f6tr faiz oran\u0131 i\u00e7in bir tahmin vermeyen eski St. Louis Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 James Bullard’d\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh, d\u00fczenledi\u011fi bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda, enflasyonun y\u00fczde 2 hedefinin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini belirterek, fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flama konusunda kararl\u0131 olduklar\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
“Bu Komite fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak.” diyen Warsh, Komite’nin bu konuda “net ve hemfikir” oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Toplant\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan politika metninde yap\u0131lan de\u011fi\u015fikliklere de i\u015faret eden Warsh, metnin daha k\u0131sa ve daha sade oldu\u011funu, baz\u0131 eski ifadelerin \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Warsh, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmenin (forward guidance) de a\u00e7\u0131klamada yer almad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
Ekonomik projeksiyonlara da de\u011finen Warsh, Komite \u00fcyelerinin tahminlerini sunmaya devam etti\u011fini ancak kendisinin mevcut yap\u0131s\u0131yla projeksiyonlara dair uzun s\u00fcredir benimsedi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler do\u011frultusunda bir tahmin sunmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Analistler, Warsh’\u0131n “fiyat istikrar\u0131” vurgusunun s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funu destekledi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Kevin Warsh’\u0131n s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirme yerine do\u011frudan makroekonomik verilerden kaynakl\u0131 etkilere odaklan\u0131lacak bir politika uygulayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden analistler, bankan\u0131n politika metninde yer alan “verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fi” ifadesinin Fed’in yapay zeka kaynakl\u0131 verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ve enflasyona etkisinin bundan sonraki d\u00f6nemde daha fazla dikkate alabilece\u011finin g\u00f6stergesi oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
S\u00f6z konusu geli\u015fmelerle, para piyasalar\u0131ndaki fiyatlamalarda Fed’in ekim ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitmesine kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131l\u0131yor. Daha \u00f6nce bankan\u0131n aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131l\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik tarafta Pakistan Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u015eahbaz \u015eerif, ABD ve \u0130ran’\u0131n “\u0130slamabad Mutabakat Anla\u015fmas\u0131”n\u0131 elektronik olarak imzalad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Pakistan’\u0131n, e\u015f arabulucu Katar’\u0131n deste\u011fiyle teknik d\u00fczeydeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ba\u015flatmak \u00fczere planland\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi 19 Haziran 2026’da \u0130svi\u00e7re’de resmi t\u00f6ren d\u00fczenleyece\u011fini kaydeden \u015eerif, konuya ili\u015fkin ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’a te\u015fekk\u00fcrlerini sundu.<\/p>\n
ABD ve \u0130ran aras\u0131nda imzalanan mutabakatla jeopolitik gerilimlerin hafifleyece\u011fi ve enerji arz\u0131nda daha fazla aksakl\u0131k ya\u015fanmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair iyimserlikle Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 y\u00fczde 1 azal\u0131\u015fla 77,7 dolarda seyrediyor.<\/p>\n
Fed’in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle d\u00fcn 5 puan art\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 4,50’ye kadar \u00e7\u0131kan ABD’nin 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerilemenin enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131 azaltaca\u011f\u0131na dair iyimserlikle bug\u00fcn y\u00fczde 4,45 seviyesinde dengelendi.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcn y\u00fczde 1,1 art\u0131\u015fla 100,6 seviyesine kadar \u00e7\u0131kan ve nisan ay\u0131ndan bu yana ilk defa 100 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan dolar endeksi yeni g\u00fcnde yatay seyirle 100,2 seviyesinde seyrediyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n onsu da y\u00fczde 1,4 art\u0131\u015fla 4 bin 316 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
New York borsas\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n (Fed) politika faizini sabit tutmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n ekonomik projeksiyonlar\u0131n bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131labilece\u011fine i\u015faret etmesi sonras\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle tamamlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Makroekonomik veri taraf\u0131nda ise ABD’de perakende sat\u0131\u015flar may\u0131sta ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 0,9 artarak beklentilerin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
S\u00f6z konusu geli\u015fmelerle Dow Jones endeksi, y\u00fczde 0,98, S&P 500 endeksi y\u00fczde 1,21 ve Nasdaq endeksi y\u00fczde 1,34 de\u011fer kaybetti. ABD’de endeks vadeli kontratlar g\u00fcne y\u00fckseli\u015fle ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avrupa borsalar\u0131, jeopolitik risklerin hafiflemesi ve enerji \u015fokunun geride kalaca\u011f\u0131na dair iyimserlikle d\u00fcn al\u0131\u015f a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 bir seyir izledi.<\/p>\n
Analistler, bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesi durumunda Avrupa borsalar\u0131n\u0131n yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne girebilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Avrupa borsalar\u0131ndaki d\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fte bankac\u0131l\u0131k ve teknoloji hisseleri etkili oldu.<\/p>\n
Makroekonomik veri taraf\u0131nda d\u00fcn \u0130ngiltere’de may\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,2, y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,8 artarak beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u00dclkede T\u00dcFE nisan ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,7, y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,8 art\u0131\u015f kaydetmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere’de a\u00e7\u0131klanan T\u00dcFE’de en fazla art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steren kalem ula\u015f\u0131m maliyetleri art\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n (BoE) da bug\u00fcnk\u00fc faiz karar\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131 beklenirken, bankan\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gidebilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Avro B\u00f6lgesi’nde may\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,1, y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 3,2 artarak beklentiler do\u011frultusunda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan Avrupa Birli\u011fi (AB) Komisyonu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ursula von der Leyen, AB ile Hindistan aras\u0131nda m\u00fczakereleri tamamlanan serbest ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar imzalanmas\u0131n\u0131n hedeflendi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
AB Komisyonu Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Teresa Ribera ise Almanya’n\u0131n \u0130talyan bankas\u0131 UniCredit’in Alman rakibi Commerzbank’\u0131 sat\u0131n alma giri\u015fimine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, Avrupa’da daha entegre bir finans piyasas\u0131 olu\u015fturulabilmesi i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi banka birle\u015fmelerinin te\u015fvik edilmesi gerekti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Alman otomobil \u015firketi BMW’nin \u00c7in’den gelen talebin k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fti\u011fine dair a\u00e7\u0131klamada bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u015firketin hisseleri y\u00fczde 8,3 azald\u0131. Bu durum b\u00f6lgedeki di\u011fer otomotiv hisselerinin de genel olarak d\u00fc\u015fmesine neden oldu.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fmelerle \u0130ngiltere’de FTSE 100 endeksi y\u00fczde 0,14, Almanya’da DAX 40 endeksi y\u00fczde 0,1 ve \u0130talya’da FTSE MIB 30 endeksi y\u00fczde 0,31 y\u00fckselirken, Fransa’da CAC 40 endeksi ise y\u00fczde 0,2 de\u011fer kaybetti. Avrupa’da endeks vadeli kontratlar g\u00fcne d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Asya taraf\u0131nda ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda imzalanan mutabakat anla\u015fmas\u0131ndan kaynakl\u0131 pozitif etkilerle Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore borsalar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015flerin di\u011fer taraftan \u00c7in ve Hong Kong borsas\u0131nda ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir seyir \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore borsas\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fler \u00e7ip \u00fcreticisi ve yapay zeka \u015firketlerinin hisselerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015flerden kaynakland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hong Kong’un \u00f6nde gelen internet \u015firketlerinin hisseleri, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Japonya, G\u00fcney Kore ve Tayvan’daki yapay zeka ve yaz\u0131l\u0131m \u015firketlerine olan artan ilgisi nedeniyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, \u00c7in’in Hong Kong’a \u00c7in’li yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberler de \u00c7in’den Hong Kong’a sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n azalabilece\u011fi endi\u015felerine neden oldu.<\/p>\n
S\u00f6z konusu geli\u015fmelerle kapan\u0131\u015fa yak\u0131n Japonya’da Nikkei 225 endeksi y\u00fczde 1,8, G\u00fcney Kore’de Kospi endeksi y\u00fczde 1,5 y\u00fckselirken, \u00c7in’de \u015eanghay bile\u015fik endeksi y\u00fczde 0,4, Hong Kong’da Hang Seng endeksi y\u00fczde 1,7 geriledi.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcn sat\u0131\u015f a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 bir seyir izleyen Borsa \u0130stanbul’da BIST 100 endeksi, g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fczde 0,50 de\u011fer kaybederek 14.421,15 puandan tamamlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan ABD’de mahkemenin Halkbank aleyhindeki ceza davas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesini onaylamas\u0131yla, banka hakk\u0131nda 9 y\u0131ld\u0131r devam eden hukuki s\u00fcre\u00e7 tamamen sona erdi.<\/p>\n
Borsa \u0130stanbul Vadeli \u0130\u015flem ve Opsiyon Piyasas\u0131’nda (V\u0130OP) BIST 30 endeksine dayal\u0131 haziran vadeli kontrat ise d\u00fcn g\u00fcn\u00fc ak\u015fam seans\u0131nda normal seans kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0,4 alt\u0131nda 16.675,00 puandan tamamlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dolar\/TL d\u00fcn g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fczde 0,1 art\u0131\u015fla 46,3570’ten tamamlarken, bug\u00fcn bankalararas\u0131 piyasan\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 0,2 \u00fczerinde 46,4411’den i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Analistler, bug\u00fcn yurt i\u00e7inde k\u0131sa vadeli d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 istatistikleri, konut sat\u0131\u015f istatistikleri ve T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131 \u00f6zeti ile para ve banka istatistiklerinin, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ise \u0130ngiltere’de \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) faiz karar\u0131 ve ABD’de Philadelphia Fed imalat endeksi ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere yo\u011fun veri g\u00fcndeminin takip edilece\u011fini belirterek, teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan BIST 100 endeksinde 14.300 ve 14.200 puan\u0131n destek, 14.500 ve 14.600 puan seviyelerinin diren\u00e7 konumunda oldu\u011funu kaydetti.<\/p>\n
Piyasalarda bug\u00fcn takip edilecek veriler \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/p>\n
10.00 T\u00fcrkiye, nisan ay\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 istatistikleri<\/p>\n
10.00 T\u00fcrkiye, may\u0131s ay\u0131 konut sat\u0131\u015f istatistikleri<\/p>\n
14.00 T\u00fcrkiye, haziran ay\u0131 PPK toplant\u0131 \u00f6zeti<\/p>\n
14.00 \u0130ngiltere’de \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) faiz karar\u0131<\/p>\n
14.30 T\u00fcrkiye, haftal\u0131k para ve banka istatistikleri<\/p>\n
15.30 ABD, haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131<\/p>\n
15.30 ABD, haziran ay\u0131 Philadelphia Fed imalat endeksi<\/p>\n
17.00 ABD, may\u0131s ay\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc endeks<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
K\u00fcresel piyasalar, Fed’in faiz karar\u0131 sonras\u0131 bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gidilebilece\u011fi beklentilerinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131 ile ABD-\u0130ran mutabakat\u0131n\u0131n piyasalarda olu\u015fturdu\u011fu iyimserlik aras\u0131nda, risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki dalgalanmayla y\u00f6n bulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":31875,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[488,5065],"class_list":["post-31874","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-fed","tag-kuresel-piyasalar"],"yoast_head":"\n