EIA’n\u0131n “Haziran 2026 K\u0131sa D\u00f6nem Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Raporu”na g\u00f6re, bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in Brent petrol\u00fcn ortalama varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 95,39 dolar seviyesinde olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Kurum, bir \u00f6nceki raporunda fiyat tahminini 94,85 dolar olarak a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bat\u0131 Teksas t\u00fcr\u00fc (WTI) ham petrol\u00fcn ortalama varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ise 88,32 dolar olaca\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor. EIA, WTI i\u00e7in ge\u00e7en ay fiyat tahminini 85,68 dolar olarak belirlemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
EIA, gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in ortalama varil fiyat\u0131 tahminini Brent petrolde 79,39 dolar, WTI i\u00e7in ise 74,39 dolar olarak belirledi.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’nda 3 ay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir devam eden fiili kapanman\u0131n k\u00fcresel petrol piyasalar\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek seviyelerde tutmas\u0131 etkili oluyor.<\/p>\n
Raporda, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik anla\u015fman\u0131n yak\u0131n oldu\u011funa ili\u015fkin haberlerin etkisiyle Brent petrol\u00fcn spot fiyat\u0131n\u0131n may\u0131sta varil ba\u015f\u0131na ortalama 107 dolara gerileyerek nisana g\u00f6re 10 dolar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtildi. Ancak anla\u015fman\u0131n hen\u00fcz sonu\u00e7lanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, b\u00f6lgedeki petrol \u00fcretiminin \u00f6nemli b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn hala devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011fu ve k\u00fcresel talebin kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmaya devam edildi\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n yaz ba\u015f\u0131na kadar fiilen kapal\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131, petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n da y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde kademeli olarak yeniden ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00dcretim ve ticaret ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelere d\u00f6nmesinin ise 2027’nin ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 bulabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel arz kesintilerinin uzamas\u0131yla birlikte petrol stoklar\u0131ndaki erimenin h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edilirken, Ekonomik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi ve Kalk\u0131nma \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc’n\u00fcn (OECD) toplam s\u0131v\u0131 yak\u0131t stoklar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l sonunda 2003’ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n
EIA, mevcut arz kesintileri nedeniyle petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n tahmin d\u00f6nemi boyunca \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelere d\u00f6nemeyece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirirken, k\u00fcresel stoklar\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 6,3 milyon varil gerileyece\u011fini tahmin etti.<\/p>\n
Talep taraf\u0131nda ise y\u00fcksek yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131, yak\u0131t arz\u0131ndaki daralma ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin t\u00fcketimi azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik uygulamalar\u0131 petrol talebi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Talepteki zay\u0131flama, arz kay\u0131plar\u0131na ra\u011fmen k\u00fcresel petrol stoklar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc k\u0131smen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Talepteki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn Orta Do\u011fu’dan yap\u0131lan ham petrol sevkiyatlar\u0131na daha fazla ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 Asya \u00fclkelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret edilen raporda, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131ndan en fazla etkilenen b\u00f6lgelerde g\u00fcncel talep verilerinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen mevcut g\u00f6stergelerin talepte beklenenden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gerilemeye i\u015faret etti\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
Bu kapsamda EIA, k\u00fcresel petrol talebinin 2026’da g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 1,1 milyon varil azalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. Kurum, ge\u00e7en ay talepte g\u00fcnl\u00fck 200 bin varillik, \u015fubatta ise 1,2 milyon varillik art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, ABD’de g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama ham petrol \u00fcretiminin bu y\u0131l 13 milyon 720 bin varil olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor. Bu miktar, \u00f6nceki raporda 13 milyon 650 bin varil olarak tahmin edilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Gelecek y\u0131l ise \u00fcretimin g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 14 milyon 150 bin varil olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6nceki raporda bu tahmin 14 milyon 100 bin varil seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u0131l k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n ise g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 98 milyon 990 bin varil, k\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin ise 102 milyon 860 bin varil seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Gelecek y\u0131l ise k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 109 milyon 320 bin varile, t\u00fcketimin ise 105 milyon 320 bin varile ula\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA), H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 arz riskleri ve k\u00fcresel petrol stoklar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn fiyatlar \u00fczerindeki etkisini dikkate alarak bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in ortalama petrol fiyat\u0131 tahminini yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":30077,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[575,10489,4312],"class_list":["post-30076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-abd","tag-eia","tag-hurmuz-bogazi"],"yoast_head":"\n