ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019la y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen m\u00fczakereler ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrecine ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda bulundu. NBC News\u2019e konu\u015fan Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silaha sahip olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kabul etti\u011fini savunarak, anla\u015fma metnine bu y\u00f6nde bir madde eklendi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Trump, \u201c\u0130ran n\u00fckleer silaha sahip olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kabul etti. Biz de bunu belirten bir madde ekledik ve herkes bu istisnadan memnun kald\u0131\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131, L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019la yap\u0131lacak k\u0131sa vadeli bir anla\u015fman\u0131n par\u00e7as\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 talep etmedi\u011fini de belirtti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fczakerelerde belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken Trump\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, n\u00fckleer program ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden g\u00fcndemin merkezine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah geli\u015ftirmeyece\u011fine ili\u015fkin bir kabulde bulundu\u011funu ileri s\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Trump, olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fma halinde uranyum konusunun da ABD kontrol\u00fcnde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclece\u011fini savundu. \u0130ran\u2019la dostane bir anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda uranyumun birlikte imha edilece\u011fini belirten Trump, bunun bulundu\u011fu yerde yap\u0131labilece\u011fini ya da ba\u015fka bir noktaya ta\u015f\u0131narak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Trump, \u0130ran\u2019la anla\u015fma ihtimalinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 masada oldu\u011funu belirtirken, m\u00fczakerelerin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131 halinde farkl\u0131 se\u00e7eneklerin g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fi mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verdi.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131, \u201cAnla\u015fmay\u0131 imzalayacak m\u0131y\u0131z yoksa di\u011fer yolu mu izleyece\u011fiz? Di\u011fer yol hi\u00e7 de ho\u015f de\u011fil\u201d s\u00f6zleriyle Tahran y\u00f6netimine y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ba\u015fl\u0131klardan biri de ABD askerlerinin b\u00f6lgedeki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 oldu. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131, ate\u015fkes sa\u011flansa bile Amerikan birliklerini geri \u00e7ekmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Trump, sava\u015f sona erdi\u011finde Amerikal\u0131lar\u0131n rahat bir nefes alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ederken, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00fcstlenece\u011fi maliyetlerin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez oldu\u011funu savundu. \u0130ran ekonomisinin a\u011f\u0131r bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu belirten Trump, Tahran y\u00f6netiminin mevcut s\u00fcreci uzun s\u00fcre ta\u015f\u0131yamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Trump, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131na ili\u015fkin de de\u011ferlendirmelerde bulundu. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019a deniz ablukas\u0131 uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131n gerek\u00e7esini, Tahran\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 benzer bir bask\u0131 kurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Trump, \u201c\u0130ran\u2019a deniz ablukas\u0131 uygulaman\u0131n nedeni, onlar\u0131n bize abluka uygulamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yd\u0131; \u015fimdi de biz onlara abluka uyguluyoruz\u201d dedi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131, deniz ablukas\u0131 nedeniyle \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n her g\u00fcn 400 ila 500 milyon dolar aras\u0131nda kay\u0131p ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etti.<\/p>\n
Trump, a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n dini liderine ili\u015fkin de dikkat \u00e7ekici bir iddiada bulundu. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Y\u00fcce Lideri\u2019nin a\u011f\u0131r yaraland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu iddia, b\u00f6lgedeki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n siyasi ve askeri boyutuna ili\u015fkin tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 art\u0131rabilecek ba\u015fl\u0131klardan biri olarak de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n
ABD\/\u0130srail-\u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131 olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrecinde 100 g\u00fcn geride kal\u0131rken, sava\u015f\u0131n yaln\u0131zca askeri de\u011fil, ekonomik sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 da k\u00fcresel g\u00fcndemin \u00fcst s\u0131ralar\u0131na yerle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
28 \u015eubat\u2019ta ba\u015flayan sava\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan b\u00f6lgede insani kay\u0131plar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra enerji, ticaret, ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k ve tedarik zincirleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da ciddi zorluklar ya\u015fand\u0131. \u00d6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksakl\u0131klar, k\u00fcresel petrol ve do\u011fal gaz piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD ve \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na misilleme olarak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda ticari gemi trafi\u011fini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde durdurdu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Bu geli\u015fme, k\u00fcresel enerji ve hammadde ticaretinde \u00f6nemli aksamalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Payla\u015f\u0131lan verilere g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel petrol ve s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz ticaretinin y\u00fczde 20\u2019si, g\u00fcbre ticaretinin y\u00fczde 30\u2019u, \u00fcre arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 40\u2019\u0131, k\u00fck\u00fcrt arz\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 50\u2019si ve fosfat tedarikinin y\u00fczde 30\u2019u bu s\u00fcre\u00e7ten etkilendi.<\/p>\n
Sava\u015f\u0131n 100\u2019\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcn\u00fcne girilirken enerji piyasalar\u0131ndaki arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale geldi. Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Birol\u2019a g\u00f6re \u00f6zellikle petrol ve petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnlerindeki arz \u015foku, tarihin en b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji krizlerinden birine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
IEA verilerine g\u00f6re d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol t\u00fcketimi nisanda 104 milyon varil seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, petrol arz\u0131 95,1 milyon varilde kald\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n durma noktas\u0131na gelmesiyle K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki petrol \u00fcreticilerinin sava\u015f \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla g\u00fcnl\u00fck kayb\u0131n\u0131n 14,4 milyon varile ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyenin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 30 \u00fczerinde seyrediyor. Avrupa gaz fiyatlar\u0131nda ise art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 50 seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki bu y\u00fckseli\u015f, yaln\u0131zca akaryak\u0131t ve do\u011fal gaz faturalar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil, sanayi \u00fcretiminden g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131na kadar geni\u015f bir alan\u0131 etkiliyor. \u00d6zellikle enerji ithalat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u00fclkelerde enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n daha da artabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya Deniz Ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 Konseyi verilerine g\u00f6re, sava\u015f s\u00fcrecinde gemi yak\u0131t maliyetleri y\u00fczde 59 artt\u0131. K\u00fcresel ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k a\u011f\u0131ndaki aksakl\u0131klar, y\u00fckselen yak\u0131t maliyetleri ve ticari gemilerin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 riskler, tedarik zincirleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkenin ihracat ve ithalat dengesini de etkiliyor. Nakliye maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fcr\u00fcn fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131, k\u00fcresel enflasyon beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren unsurlar aras\u0131nda g\u00f6steriliyor.<\/p>\n
Sava\u015f\u0131n ekonomik etkileri, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerine de yans\u0131d\u0131. Ekonomik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi ve Kalk\u0131nma \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn de\u011ferlendirmelerine g\u00f6re sava\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcresi ve ticaret ak\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki aksakl\u0131klar, k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirleyici olacak.<\/p>\n
Sava\u015f\u0131n nispeten k\u0131sa s\u00fcrmesi halinde k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2025\u2019teki y\u00fczde 3,4 seviyesinden bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2,8\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi, 2027\u2019de ise yeniden y\u00fczde 3,1 seviyesine y\u00fckselece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 118 trilyon dolar b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde oldu\u011fu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, b\u00fcy\u00fcmede 0,6 puanl\u0131k zay\u0131flaman\u0131n k\u00fcresel ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en az 700 milyar dolarl\u0131k potansiyel kay\u0131p anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fi hesaplan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ancak sava\u015f\u0131n ve ticaret ak\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n daha uzun s\u00fcrmesi durumunda daha a\u011f\u0131r bir tablo ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Bu senaryoda d\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2,1\u2019e, 2027\u2019de ise y\u00fczde 1,8\u2019e kadar gerileyebilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Uluslararas\u0131 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Fitch Ratings de sava\u015f\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi petrol krizi nedeniyle k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti. Fitch, bu y\u0131la ili\u015fkin k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini 0,2 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek y\u00fczde 2,4\u2019e indirdi.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n yapay zekayla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 teknoloji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ivmenin, petrol \u015fokunun k\u00fcresel ekonomik aktivite \u00fczerindeki etkisini k\u0131smen dengeledi\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bu durumun \u00f6zellikle d\u00fcnya ticaretindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ve Asya \u00fclkelerinin ihracat\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Fitch Ratings, ticaretin 14 haftad\u0131r durma noktas\u0131nda oldu\u011fu H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n temmuza kadar yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bo\u011fazdan ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede normale d\u00f6nemeyece\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, petrol piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n gelecek iki ayda stoklar\u0131n azalmas\u0131 nedeniyle daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol stoklar\u0131ndaki azalma, fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na ve enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkelerin maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131na neden olabilir. Uzmanlara g\u00f6re enerji piyasalar\u0131ndaki bu bask\u0131, sava\u015f\u0131n ekonomik sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n en kritik ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131ndan biri olmaya devam edecek.<\/p>\n
OECD, k\u00fcresel ticaretteki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2025\u2019teki y\u00fczde 5 seviyesinden bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,1\u2019e, 2027\u2019de ise y\u00fczde 2,9\u2019a d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00d6zellikle K\u00f6rfez ekonomileriyle yap\u0131lan ticaretteki keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve artan enerji ile ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k maliyetleri, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde ticaret b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini zay\u0131flatabilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc verilerine g\u00f6re, 2025\u2019te y\u00fczde 4,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen k\u00fcresel ticaretin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 1,9\u2019a, 2027\u2019de ise y\u00fczde 2,6\u2019ya gerilemesi bekleniyor. Enerji \u015fokunun etkisi a\u011f\u0131r olsa da yapay zekayla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerdeki talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bu zay\u0131flamay\u0131 k\u0131smen dengeledi\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler Ticaret ve Kalk\u0131nma Kurulu\u015fu, k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2,6 seviyesine yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. Kurulu\u015f, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir d\u00f6neme ilerledi\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
UNCTAD\u2019a g\u00f6re \u00f6zellikle petrol ithalat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in ekonomik zorluklar giderek a\u011f\u0131rla\u015f\u0131yor. Ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan k\u0131r\u0131lgan durumdaki 75 \u00fclkeden 65\u2019inin net petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011fu ve bu \u00fclkelerde yakla\u015f\u0131k bir milyar insan\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f, ithal yak\u0131ta ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in ciddi bir mali y\u00fck olu\u015fturuyor. UNCTAD\u2019\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmelerine g\u00f6re mevcut ithalat seviyeleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f bu \u00fclkelerin y\u0131ll\u0131k ithalat faturalar\u0131na 20 milyar dolardan fazla ek y\u00fck getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00fclkelerde ya\u015fayan n\u00fcfusun \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli olmas\u0131, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n sosyal etkilerini daha da a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. G\u0131da, ula\u015f\u0131m ve temel t\u00fcketim maliyetlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f, k\u0131r\u0131lgan ekonomilerde hayat pahal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilecek ba\u015fl\u0131klar aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, n\u00fckleer m\u00fczakereler, ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgedeki askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel ekonomik etkilerle birlikte de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Washington y\u00f6netimi bir yandan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar \u00fczerinde dururken, di\u011fer yandan b\u00f6lgedeki askeri ve ekonomik bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da 100 g\u00fcn\u00fc geride b\u0131rakan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcreci, yaln\u0131zca b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fcvenli\u011fi de\u011fil, k\u00fcresel enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131, ticaret yollar\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini de do\u011frudan etkiliyor. G\u00f6zler \u015fimdi \u0130ran\u2019la olas\u0131 anla\u015fma zemininin olu\u015fup olu\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131na ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ticaret ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ne zaman normale d\u00f6nece\u011fine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019la y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen s\u00fcre\u00e7 ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara ili\u015fkin dikkat \u00e7eken a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda bulundu. Trump, ate\u015fkes sa\u011flansa bile ABD birliklerini b\u00f6lgeden \u00e7ekmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmedi\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silaha sahip olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kabul etti\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":19501,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[4319,573,574,4941,10294,581,10036,1320],"class_list":["post-29523","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","tag-abdirangerilimi","tag-hurmuzbogazi","tag-iran","tag-kureselekonomi","tag-nukleersilah","tag-ortadogu","tag-petrolkrizi","tag-trump"],"yoast_head":"\n