Uluslararas\u0131 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Fitch Ratings, k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti.<\/p>\n
Fitch, K\u00fcresel Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019nun haziran say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u201cPetrol Fiyatlar\u0131ndaki \u015eok K\u00fcresel B\u00fcy\u00fcme Beklentilerini Vurdu\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla yay\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Raporda, ABD-\u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi petrol krizinin k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini olumsuz etkiledi\u011fi belirtildi. Artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle bu y\u0131la ili\u015fkin k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini 0,2 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclerek y\u00fczde 2,6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 2,4\u2019e indirildi.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin gelecek y\u0131l ise y\u00fczde 2,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin beklendi\u011fi bildirildi.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bask\u0131l\u0131yor<\/strong><\/p>\n Raporda, y\u00fcksek enflasyonun reel \u00fccretleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, t\u00fcketimi frenledi\u011fi ve \u015firketlerin girdi maliyetlerini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurguland\u0131. Bu nedenle b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinde genel olarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyon yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaydedildi.<\/p>\n Fitch, yapay zeka yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ivmenin petrol \u015fokunun k\u00fcresel ekonomik faaliyet \u00fczerindeki etkisini bir miktar hafifletti\u011fini belirtti. Raporda, bu durumun d\u00fcnya ticaretini ve Asya\u2019n\u0131n ihracat\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n ABD ve Avro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in tahminler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc<\/strong><\/p>\n Fitch, ABD ekonomisine ili\u015fkin bu y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini 0,3 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek y\u00fczde 1,9\u2019a indirdi. \u00dclke ekonomisinin gelecek y\u0131l da y\u00fczde 1,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n Avro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisine ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini de 0,4 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclerek y\u00fczde 0,9\u2019a \u00e7ekildi. B\u00f6lge ekonomisinin gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 1,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n \u00c7in ekonomisine ili\u015fkin bu y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini ise 0,3 puan art\u0131r\u0131larak y\u00fczde 4,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseltildi. \u00c7in\u2019in gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 4,3 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 2,8<\/strong><\/p>\n Raporda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelere de yer verildi.<\/p>\n Fitch, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2,8, gelecek y\u0131l ise y\u00fczde 4,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini bekledi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n Kurulu\u015f, mart ay\u0131nda yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahminlerde T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n Brent petrol tahmini 87 dolara \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Fitch, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131n 14 haftay\u0131 buldu\u011fu ve temmuz ay\u0131ndan \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla Brent petrol\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131na ili\u015fkin tahminini yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti.<\/p>\n Raporda, Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na ortalama fiyat tahmini bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in 70 dolardan 87 dolara \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n Fitch, petrol \u015fokunun k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir engel olu\u015fturdu\u011funu ancak temel senaryonun 1970\u2019lerdeki y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 petrol \u015foklar\u0131na k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha az \u015fiddetli oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n Raporda, reel petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 1979\u2019da varil ba\u015f\u0131na 170 dolara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131rken, petrol t\u00fcketiminin d\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki pay\u0131n\u0131n 1980\u2019den bu yana yar\u0131ya indi\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz politikalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiler<\/strong><\/p>\n Fitch raporunda, petrol \u015fokunun enflasyonist etkisinin k\u00fcresel para politikas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de etkiledi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n Pandemi sonras\u0131 enflasyon deneyiminin h\u00e2l\u00e2 taze oldu\u011funa i\u015faret edilen raporda, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n fiyat \u015fokunun kal\u0131c\u0131 etkilere yol a\u00e7abilece\u011finden endi\u015fe duydu\u011fu ve beklentileri \u00e7\u0131palamaya \u00f6zen g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n Raporda, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n, 2027\u2019de ise yeniden faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n ise haziran ay\u0131nda 25 baz puan faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n, ancak bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n gelecek y\u0131l geri al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bildirildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fitch Ratings, ABD-\u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi petrol krizinin k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc olumsuz etkiledi\u011fini belirterek, d\u00fcnya ekonomisine ili\u015fkin 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 2,6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 2,4\u2019e indirdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":28830,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2535,5],"tags":[4202,949,10037,10038,488,10035,4941,10036,1839],"class_list":["post-28829","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-3-bolge","category-ekonomi","tag-abdiransavasi","tag-brentpetrol","tag-buyumetahmini","tag-ecb","tag-fed","tag-fitchratings","tag-kureselekonomi","tag-petrolkrizi","tag-turkiyeekonomisi"],"yoast_head":"\n