T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rma notunda, Ramazan ay\u0131n\u0131n g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde yaln\u0131zca mevsimsel de\u011fil, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir ve izlenebilir bir d\u00f6nemsel risk unsuru oldu\u011fu belirtildi. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada, Ramazan\u2019\u0131n g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda \u00f6nc\u00fc, e\u015f zamanl\u0131 ve gecikmeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011fu; etkinin \u00f6zellikle i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde belirginle\u015fti\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
G\u0131da T\u00dcFE sepetinin d\u00f6rtte birini olu\u015fturuyor<\/strong><\/p>\n Ara\u015ft\u0131rmada, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de g\u0131da ve alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecekler grubunun T\u00dcFE sepetindeki pay\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 25 oldu\u011fu hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131. G\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n, \u201cev d\u0131\u015f\u0131 yemek\u201d kanal\u0131yla da enflasyona dolayl\u0131 etki yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131; bu kalemin T\u00dcFE i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 7,40 oldu\u011fu ifade edildi.<\/p>\n \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada, Ramazan d\u00f6neminde hanehalk\u0131 t\u00fcketim kal\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi, \u00f6zellikle iftar ve sahur al\u0131\u015fveri\u015fleriyle baz\u0131 g\u0131da \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine talebin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Artan talebin, k\u0131sa vadede arz esnekli\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olan \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde fiyatlara daha h\u0131zl\u0131 yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n En g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etki i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131dada g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc<\/strong><\/p>\n Makro verilerle yap\u0131lan analizde, Ramazan ay\u0131n\u0131n g\u0131da ve alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecek fiyatlar\u0131nda anlaml\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etki olu\u015fturdu\u011fu tespit edildi. Buna g\u00f6re, Ramazan ay\u0131ndaki etki g\u0131da ve alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7eceklerde 1,27 puan, Ramazan sonras\u0131nda ise 1,23 puan olarak hesapland\u0131.<\/p>\n \u0130\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da grubunda ise etkinin \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu belirlendi. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmaya g\u00f6re, Ramazan ay\u0131nda i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etki 4,14 puana, Ramazan sonras\u0131nda ise 2,60 puana ula\u015ft\u0131. \u0130\u015flenmi\u015f g\u0131dada ise Ramazan ay\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve ge\u00e7ici a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir etki g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmada bu durumun, perakende sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde artan kampanyalar ve rekabet bask\u0131s\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n Et, tavuk, sebze ve bakliyatta belirgin art\u0131\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00dcr\u00fcn gruplar\u0131 baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan analizde Ramazan etkisinin her \u00fcr\u00fcnde ayn\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Dana etinde Ramazan \u00f6ncesi, Ramazan ay\u0131 ve Ramazan sonras\u0131nda fiyatlar \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve istatistiksel olarak anlaml\u0131 etki tespit edildi. Dana etinde etki Ramazan \u00f6ncesinde 2,73, Ramazan ay\u0131nda 2,72, Ramazan sonras\u0131nda ise 1,68 puan olarak hesapland\u0131.<\/p>\n Kuzu, koyun ve ke\u00e7i etinde de benzer \u015fekilde Ramazan etkisi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti. Bu grupta etki Ramazan ay\u0131nda 2,57 puan, Ramazan sonras\u0131nda 1,66 puan oldu. Tavuk etinde ise Ramazan ay\u0131ndaki etki 6,56 puanla dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n Taze sebzelerde de fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131 belirginle\u015fti. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, taze sebzelerde Ramazan ay\u0131ndaki etki 6,79 puan, Ramazan sonras\u0131ndaki etki ise 7,44 puan olarak hesapland\u0131. Bakliyatta Ramazan ay\u0131ndaki etki 1,48 puanla daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k pirin\u00e7, taze bal\u0131k ve deniz \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ile taze meyvelerde Ramazan etkisinin istatistiksel olarak anlaml\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada, fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n daha \u00e7ok \u00e7abuk bozulan, s\u0131k t\u00fcketilen ve arz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131na daha duyarl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n Ramazan ay\u0131nda fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 5,9\u2019a ula\u015ft\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n mikro veri b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde, Tar\u0131m ve Orman Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Tar\u0131msal \u00dcr\u00fcnler Fiyat \u0130zleme Sistemi\u2019nden al\u0131nan g\u00fcnl\u00fck perakende fiyat verileri kullan\u0131ld\u0131. 2022-2025 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan analizde, i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n Ramazan \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, Ramazan ay\u0131nda h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve sonras\u0131nda da y\u00fcksek seviyesini korudu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n Buna g\u00f6re, i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 Ramazan \u00f6ncesindeki 15 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00f6nemlerde ortalama y\u00fczde 2,5 artt\u0131. Ramazan ay\u0131nda ortalama art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 5,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Ramazan sonras\u0131ndaki 15 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00f6nemlerde ise fiyatlar ortalama y\u00fczde 1,6 artmaya devam etti.<\/p>\n \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada, fiyatlar\u0131n Ramazan sonras\u0131nda eski seviyesine d\u00f6nmemesinin, Ramazan kaynakl\u0131 talep \u015fokunun tamamen ge\u00e7ici olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi belirtildi. Bu durum, i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011funa ve Ramazan etkisinin fiyat seviyesi \u00fczerinde k\u0131smen kal\u0131c\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabildi\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n Fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ramazan\u2019da zirve yapt\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Ara\u015ft\u0131rmada, i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n da Ramazan d\u00f6neminde belirgin \u015fekilde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tespit edildi. G\u00fcnl\u00fck verilerle hesaplanan fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, Ramazan ay\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan d\u00f6nemde zirve yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n Bu bulgu, Ramazan\u2019\u0131n yaln\u0131zca fiyat seviyesini art\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ayn\u0131 zamanda fiyatlar\u0131n daha dalgal\u0131 hale gelmesine de yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n \u0130ndirim ve zincir marketlerde etki daha kal\u0131c\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada market t\u00fcrlerine g\u00f6re de ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 analiz yap\u0131ld\u0131. Yerel, zincir ve indirim marketleri kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Ramazan etkisinin t\u00fcm market t\u00fcrlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ancak b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck ve kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k bak\u0131m\u0131ndan farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n Ramazan \u00f6ncesinden Ramazan\u2019\u0131n ilk 15 g\u00fcn\u00fcne kadar olan d\u00f6nemde i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 indirim marketlerinde y\u00fczde 12,8, zincir marketlerde y\u00fczde 10,5, yerel marketlerde ise y\u00fczde 22,2 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n Ramazan sonras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nemde ise art\u0131\u015f indirim marketlerinde y\u00fczde 23,3, zincir marketlerde y\u00fczde 24,6, yerel marketlerde y\u00fczde 13,5 oldu. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmada, indirim ve zincir marketlerdeki daha kal\u0131c\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, merkezi tedarik sistemleri, geni\u015f m\u00fc\u015fteri taban\u0131 ve daha senkronize fiyatlama stratejileriyle ili\u015fkili olabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n Yerel marketlerde fiyat tepkisinin daha kademeli oldu\u011fu, bunun da daha esnek tedarik kanallar\u0131, m\u00fc\u015fteri ili\u015fkileri ve daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck sat\u0131\u015f hacimleriyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olabilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n Y\u00fcksek gelirli illerde Ramazan sonras\u0131 etki daha kal\u0131c\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Ara\u015ft\u0131rmada iller gelir d\u00fczeylerine g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, orta ve y\u00fcksek gelirli olarak da s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re Ramazan etkisinin T\u00fcrkiye genelinde yayg\u0131n oldu\u011fu, ancak y\u00fcksek gelirli illerde Ramazan sonras\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve kal\u0131c\u0131 seyretti\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada, y\u00fcksek gelirli illerde daha kurumsalla\u015fm\u0131\u015f perakende yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, daha geni\u015f \u00fcr\u00fcn talebinin ve fiyat ayarlamalar\u0131ndaki e\u015f zamanl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n bu kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi ifade edildi. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve orta gelirli illerde ise hanehalk\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 ve yerel tedarik kanallar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n Enflasyon tahminlerinde Ramazan etkisi dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n sonu\u00e7 b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde, Ramazan etkisinin i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7ici bir mevsimsel dalgalanma olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmemesi gerekti\u011fi vurguland\u0131. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada, bu etkinin k\u0131smen kal\u0131c\u0131, piyasa yap\u0131s\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir fiyat \u015foku niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n TCMB ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc analiz edilirken Ramazan dinamiklerinin dikkate al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n, g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmelerin daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 yorumlanmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" TCMB ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na g\u00f6re Ramazan ay\u0131, \u00f6zellikle i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda belirgin art\u0131\u015f ve oynakl\u0131\u011fa yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada, Ramazan etkisinin et, tavuk, taze sebze ve bakliyat gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131; fiyatlar\u0131n Ramazan sonras\u0131nda da y\u00fcksek seviyesini koruyabildi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":26297,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,3483],"tags":[115,1262,8885,157,432],"class_list":["post-26291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-4-bolge","tag-enflasyon","tag-gidafiyatlari","tag-islenmemisgida","tag-ramazan","tag-tcmb"],"yoast_head":"\n