{"id":2476,"date":"2026-01-21T15:56:06","date_gmt":"2026-01-21T12:56:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/?p=2476"},"modified":"2026-01-21T16:08:40","modified_gmt":"2026-01-21T13:08:40","slug":"avrupanin-askeri-kapasitesi-kimlik-krizi-abdnin-yayilmaci-politikalari-ve-abd-cin-rekabetinin-kuresel-etkileri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/01\/21\/avrupanin-askeri-kapasitesi-kimlik-krizi-abdnin-yayilmaci-politikalari-ve-abd-cin-rekabetinin-kuresel-etkileri\/","title":{"rendered":"Avrupa’n\u0131n Askeri Kapasitesi, Kimlik Krizi, ABD’nin Yay\u0131lmac\u0131 Politikalar\u0131 ve ABD-\u00c7in Rekabetinin K\u00fcresel Etkileri"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yazar: Hamdi Ba\u011fc\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

1. Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ABD ile asker\u00ee olarak sava\u015fma kapasitesi: g\u00fc\u00e7 dengeleri, teknoloji ve siyasi irade<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

1.1 NATO i\u00e7indeki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengeleri ve liderlik<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n asker\u00ee kapasitesi de\u011ferlendirilirken NATO\u2019nun merkezi rol\u00fc ve ABD\u2019nin ittifak i\u00e7indeki liderli\u011fi belirleyici olmaya devam etmektedir. So\u011fuk Sava\u015f sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde Avrupa, g\u00fcvenli\u011fini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ABD\u2019nin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 n\u00fckleer \u015femsiye ve asker\u00ee varl\u0131k \u00fczerinden in\u015fa etmi\u015ftir. 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 itibar\u0131yla NATO\u2019nun 32 \u00fcyesi bulunmakta; ABD, asker\u00ee kapasite, teknoloji ve stratejik komuta a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ittifak\u0131n tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131z lideri konumunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

NATO\u2019nun 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in belirledi\u011fi asker\u00ee b\u00fct\u00e7e 2,42 milyar avro olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Sivil b\u00fct\u00e7e ise 528,2 milyon avro olup toplam ortak b\u00fct\u00e7e yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,95 milyar avroya ula\u015fmaktad\u0131r. Bu b\u00fct\u00e7eler; asker\u00ee adaptasyon, m\u00fcttefikler aras\u0131 birlikte \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilirlik, kriz \u00f6nleme ve y\u00f6netimi ile i\u015fbirli\u011fine dayal\u0131 g\u00fcvenli\u011fe katk\u0131 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedeflemektedir. Bununla birlikte ortak b\u00fct\u00e7eler, \u00fcye \u00fclkelerin ulusal savunma harcamalar\u0131yla k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fe sahiptir.<\/span><\/p>\n

ABD\u2019nin NATO i\u00e7indeki liderli\u011fi, yaln\u0131zca kapasiteyle de\u011fil; stratejik vizyon ve karar alma s\u00fcre\u00e7lerindeki belirleyici rol\u00fcyle de peki\u015fmektedir. \u00d6zellikle Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin Avrupa g\u00fcvenli\u011fine verdi\u011fi destek ve asker\u00ee varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131, ittifak\u0131n cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015ftir. Ancak son y\u0131llarda \u201c\u00d6nce Amerika\u201d (America First) yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla birlikte, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n kendi savunma kapasitesini art\u0131rmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131 da artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

1.2 Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n savunma harcamalar\u0131 ve GSYH oranlar\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Avrupa \u00fclkeleri 2022\u2019den itibaren asker\u00ee harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla art\u0131rmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda AB \u00fcyesi 27 \u00fclkenin toplam savunma harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n 381 milyar avroya ula\u015farak rekor k\u0131rmas\u0131 beklenmektedir. Bu rakam, AB GSYH\u2019sinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,1\u2019ine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelmektedir. NATO ise 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda savunma harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n GSYH\u2019nin %2,6\u2019s\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; 2035\u2019e kadar bu oran\u0131n %5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n hedeflendi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

2023 itibar\u0131yla se\u00e7ili AB \u00fclkelerinde savunma harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u00dclke<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nSavunma harcamas\u0131 (GSYH, %)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Letonya<\/span><\/td>\n3,1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Estonya<\/span><\/td>\n2,7<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Litvanya<\/span><\/td>\n2,5<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Yunanistan<\/span><\/td>\n2,2<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Polonya<\/span><\/td>\n2,1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fransa<\/span><\/td>\n1,8<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Almanya<\/span><\/td>\n1,1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AB ortalamas\u0131<\/span><\/td>\n1,3<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Veriler, Rusya tehdidini daha yak\u0131ndan hisseden Do\u011fu Avrupa \u00fclkelerinin savunma harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; Bat\u0131 Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ise hedeflenen seviyelerin gerisinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, harcamalardaki art\u0131\u015f Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n asker\u00ee sanayi kapasitesi ve m\u00fchimmat stoklar\u0131nda Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamaya yetmemektedir. \u00d6zellikle m\u00fchimmat ve a\u011f\u0131r silah \u00fcretimindeki darbo\u011fazlar, uzun s\u00fcreli sava\u015f kabiliyeti a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zafiyet olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

1.3 Teknolojik yeterlilik: \u0130HA, siber, uzay ve yapay zek\u00e2<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n asker\u00ee teknoloji kapasitesi, ABD ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00f6nemli eksiklikler bar\u0131nd\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. \u0130HA, siber g\u00fcvenlik, uzay ve yapay zek\u00e2 gibi yeni nesil alanlarda ABD\u2019nin belirgin bir \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bulunur. Avrupa bu ba\u015fl\u0131klarda yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rsa da, Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi \u00fczere \u0130HA teknolojisi ve \u00fcretim kapasitesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan geride kalabilmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Avrupa Komisyonu\u2019nun 2025\u2019te yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cSavunma Haz\u0131rl\u0131k Yol Haritas\u0131 2030\u201d; \u0130HA savunma giri\u015fimi, Do\u011fu Kanad\u0131 g\u00f6zetimi, Avrupa Hava Kalkan\u0131 ve Avrupa Uzay Kalkan\u0131 gibi projelerle teknolojik kapasitenin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 hedeflemektedir. Ayr\u0131ca yapay zek\u00e2 ve kuantum teknolojileri gibi yenilik\u00e7i savunma \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlerine yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131lmas\u0131, asker\u00ee d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak konumlanmaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

Buna ra\u011fmen savunma sanayisinin entegrasyonu, ortak tedarik ve \u00fcretim kapasitesinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi alanlarda yap\u0131sal sorunlar s\u00fcrmektedir. \u00d6zellikle m\u00fchimmat, a\u011f\u0131r silah ve ileri teknoloji \u00fcretiminde ABD merkezli tedarik zincirlerine ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k devam etmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

1.4 Siyasi irade ve i\u00e7 b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fck: Macaristan \u00f6rne\u011fi<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n asker\u00ee kapasitesindeki zay\u0131f halkalardan biri, siyasi irade ve i\u00e7 b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fck konusundaki k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131kt\u0131r. AB\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f politika ve savunma kararlar\u0131nda oybirli\u011fi gereklili\u011fi, Macaristan gibi \u00fclkelerin vetolar\u0131yla zaman zaman t\u0131kanmaktad\u0131r. Macaristan Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Viktor Orban\u2019\u0131n AB b\u00fct\u00e7esi ve Ukrayna\u2019ya destek ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131nda veto tehdidi \u00fczerinden Br\u00fcksel ile Budape\u015fte aras\u0131ndaki gerilimi art\u0131rmas\u0131, bu k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr k\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu durum, AB\u2019nin ortak savunma politikas\u0131 geli\u015ftirme \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 sekteye u\u011fratmakta ve stratejik b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Ayr\u0131ca oybirli\u011fi mekanizmas\u0131, h\u0131zl\u0131 ve etkili tepki kapasitesini de daraltmaktad\u0131r. Bu nedenle AB i\u00e7inde nitelikli \u00e7o\u011funluk esas\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015f ve veto mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki tart\u0131\u015fmalar g\u00fc\u00e7lenmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

1.5 Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z sava\u015f kabiliyeti ve NATO\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n NATO\u2019dan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir sava\u015f kabiliyeti geli\u015ftirmesi k\u0131sa ve orta vadede ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. Uzman de\u011ferlendirmeleri, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n tek ba\u015f\u0131na ABD ile asker\u00ee olarak sava\u015fabilecek kapasiteye ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n uzun y\u0131llar alaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmektedir. N\u00fckleer cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k, stratejik hava ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, istihbarat ve ileri teknoloji gibi alanlarda ABD deste\u011fi olmaks\u0131z\u0131n Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n kolektif savunma kapasitesi belirgin bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flayacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131, asker\u00ee \u00f6zerklik aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olsa da pratikte NATO \u015femsiyesi ve ABD liderli\u011fi olmadan k\u0131ta g\u00fcvenli\u011finin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. Finlandiya ve \u0130sve\u00e7 gibi tarafs\u0131z \u00fclkelerin NATO\u2019ya kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 da bu ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n somut g\u00f6stergeleri aras\u0131nda de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n k\u00fcresel krizlerde pasifli\u011fi ve kimlik krizi: sosyopolitik etkiler ve gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfusun alg\u0131s\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    2.1 K\u00fcresel krizlerde pasiflik ve etkisizlik alg\u0131s\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    Avrupa Birli\u011fi, son y\u0131llarda k\u00fcresel krizlerde pasif veya etkisiz bir akt\u00f6r olarak alg\u0131lanabilmektedir. Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ve \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda AB\u2019nin ortak ve kararl\u0131 bir d\u0131\u015f politika \u00fcretmekte zorlanmas\u0131, bu alg\u0131y\u0131 beslemi\u015ftir. ABD liderli\u011finde \u015fekillenen krizlerde AB\u2019nin \u00e7o\u011fu zaman \u201chakem\u201d rol\u00fcyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ve \u201coyuncu\u201d kapasitesini zay\u0131f g\u00f6stermesi, Avrupa kamuoyunda gelecek ve kimlik tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 derinle\u015ftirmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme, inovasyon ve teknoloji alanlar\u0131nda ABD ve \u00c7in\u2019in gerisinde kalan Avrupa, \u201cBr\u00fcksel Etkisi\u201d olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan d\u00fczenleme\/standart belirleme g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc korusa da bu etki, tek ba\u015f\u0131na teknolojik yenilik\u00e7ilik ve pazar h\u00e2kimiyetinin yerini dolduramamaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

    2.2 Kimlik krizi ve AB\u2019nin i\u00e7 b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    Avrupa kimli\u011fi, tarihsel olarak ulus-devlet kimlikleriyle rekabet eden; \u00e7o\u011fu zaman belirsiz ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir \u00fcst kimlik olarak tan\u0131mlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2020\u2019li y\u0131llardaki g\u00f6\u00e7 dalgalar\u0131, ekonomik durgunluk ve g\u00fcvenlik kayg\u0131lar\u0131, AB kimli\u011fini s\u0131nam\u0131\u015f; dayan\u0131\u015fma ve ortak de\u011ferler ekseninde hareket kapasitesini zay\u0131flatm\u0131\u015f; ulusal \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir iklimi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015ftir.<\/span><\/p>\n

    D\u0131\u015f politika ve savunma kararlar\u0131nda oybirli\u011fi gereklili\u011fi; Macaristan ve Polonya gibi \u00fclkelerin vetolar\u0131yla s\u0131k s\u0131k g\u00fcndeme gelen t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131k tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctmekte, i\u00e7 b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011fe ili\u015fkin k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

    2.3 Gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfusun alg\u0131s\u0131 ve gelecek beklentileri<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    Avrupa\u2019da gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfusun alg\u0131s\u0131; ekonomik belirsizlik, ya\u015fam maliyeti ve kimlik krizinin etkisiyle karma\u015f\u0131k bir tablo sunmaktad\u0131r. 2024 Eurobarometre Gen\u00e7lik Anketi\u2019ne g\u00f6re gen\u00e7lerin en \u00e7ok \u00f6nemsedi\u011fi de\u011ferler insan haklar\u0131, demokrasi ve bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n korunmas\u0131d\u0131r (%45). Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gen\u00e7lerin %40\u2019\u0131 artan fiyatlar ve ya\u015fam maliyetlerini, %33\u2019\u00fc \u00e7evre ve iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini, %31\u2019i ise ekonomik durum ve i\u015f yaratmay\u0131 AB\u2019nin \u00f6ncelikli konular\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Gen\u00e7lerin AB\u2019nin \u00f6ncelik vermesini istedi\u011fi konular (\u00f6zet)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    Konu<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nY\u00fczde (%)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
    Artan fiyatlar, ya\u015fam maliyeti<\/span><\/td>\n40<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \u00c7evre ve iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi<\/span><\/td>\n33<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Ekonomik durum ve i\u015f yaratmak<\/span><\/td>\n31<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Toplumsal koruma ve sa\u011fl\u0131k<\/span><\/td>\n29<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    E\u011fitim ve \u00f6\u011fretim<\/span><\/td>\n27<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    AB\u2019nin savunmas\u0131 ve g\u00fcvenlik<\/span><\/td>\n21<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    Ayn\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evede, gen\u00e7lerin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ulusal kimli\u011fe ve yerel toplulu\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131k hissetmekte; kendini \u00f6ncelikli olarak \u201cAvrupal\u0131\u201d kimli\u011fiyle tan\u0131mlayanlar\u0131n oran\u0131 daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmaktad\u0131r. Bu durum, AB\u2019nin \u00fcst kimlik in\u015fa s\u00fcrecindeki zorluklara i\u015faret eder.<\/span><\/p>\n

    2.4 Pop\u00fclizm, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sa\u011f ve AB\u2019nin gelece\u011fi<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    Son on y\u0131lda Avrupa\u2019da pop\u00fclizm ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sa\u011f\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fi, AB b\u00fct\u00fcnle\u015fme s\u00fcreci ve i\u00e7 istikrar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan risk alan\u0131 olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. 2024 Avrupa Parlamentosu se\u00e7imlerinde sa\u011f pop\u00fclist ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sa\u011f partilerin bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sonu\u00e7lar almas\u0131; kutupla\u015fmay\u0131 art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f, AB kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 s\u00f6ylemlerin etkisini geni\u015fletmi\u015ftir.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Bu partiler, g\u00f6\u00e7, g\u00fcvenlik ve kimlik ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 mobilize ederek AB yetkilerinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 ve ulusal egemenli\u011fin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi hedeflerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilmektedir. Bu tablo, reform ve geni\u015fleme g\u00fcndemlerini bloke edebilecek bir risk alan\u0131 yarat\u0131rken, karar alma s\u00fcre\u00e7lerindeki t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131k AB\u2019nin k\u00fcresel akt\u00f6r kapasitesini de s\u0131n\u0131rlamaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

    2.5 Demografik de\u011fi\u015fim, g\u00f6\u00e7 ve i\u015fsizlik<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n demografik yap\u0131s\u0131 ya\u015flanmakta; gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfusun oran\u0131 azalmakta; g\u00f6\u00e7 ise n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ana kaynaklar\u0131ndan biri haline gelmektedir. Bu e\u011filimler kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken, gen\u00e7 i\u015fsizli\u011fi gibi yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131 da derinle\u015ftirebilmektedir. Sosyal entegrasyon, e\u011fitim ve istihdam politikalar\u0131nda beklentilerin kar\u015f\u0131lanamamas\u0131, AB\u2019nin gelece\u011fine dair iyimserli\u011fi zay\u0131flatmaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yay\u0131lmac\u0131\/m\u00fcdahaleci politikalar\u0131n\u0131n riskleri: Orta Do\u011fu, Asya ve Avrupa\u2019da etkiler<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      3.1 ABD d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n evrimi: yaln\u0131zc\u0131l\u0131ktan hegemonyaya<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

      ABD d\u0131\u015f politika stratejisi tarihsel olarak yaln\u0131zc\u0131l\u0131k (izolasyonizm), g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi ve hegemonya aras\u0131nda sal\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 20. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda Monroe Doktrini ile ba\u015flayan yaln\u0131zc\u0131l\u0131k, \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda k\u00fcresel liderlik ve m\u00fcdahalecili\u011fe evrilmi\u015ftir. So\u011fuk Sava\u015f boyunca SSCB\u2019yi \u00e7evreleme ve cayd\u0131rma politikas\u0131 izleyen ABD, 1991 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde tek kutuplu d\u00fczenin ba\u015fat akt\u00f6r\u00fc olmu\u015ftur.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Hegemonya stratejisi; asker\u00ee, ekonomik, siyasi ve ideolojik unsurlar\u0131 bir araya getirerek k\u00fcresel d\u00fczeni \u015fekillendirmeyi hedeflemi\u015f; uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar, enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve m\u00fcttefik a\u011flar\u0131 \u00fczerinden peki\u015ftirilmi\u015ftir.<\/span><\/p>\n

      3.2 Yay\u0131lmac\u0131\/m\u00fcdahaleci politikalar\u0131n riskleri: genel \u00e7er\u00e7eve<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

      ABD\u2019nin yay\u0131lmac\u0131 ve m\u00fcdahaleci d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131, d\u00fcnya bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczen a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7e\u015fitli riskler \u00fcretebilmektedir. B\u00f6lgesel istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k, radikalle\u015fme, m\u00fcttefikler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcvensizlik ve k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 rekabetinin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 bu riskler aras\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Ukrayna ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda ABD\u2019nin rol\u00fc, Avrasya co\u011frafyas\u0131nda yeni asker\u00ee senaryolar\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirmi\u015ftir. \u0130ran, Pakistan ve Hindistan aras\u0131ndaki gerilimlerin artmas\u0131, \u00e7ok cepheli \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskini b\u00fcy\u00fctebilecek bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve olarak de\u011ferlendirilmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

      3.3 Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da ABD politikalar\u0131n\u0131n etkileri: vaka \u00e7er\u00e7evesi<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

      ABD\u2019nin Orta Do\u011fu politikas\u0131, 1990\u2019lardan itibaren asker\u00ee m\u00fcdahaleler, rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi giri\u015fimleri ve enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi \u00f6ncelikleriyle \u015fekillenmi\u015ftir. K\u00f6rfez Sava\u015f\u0131, Irak\u2019\u0131n i\u015fgali, Arap Bahar\u0131 s\u00fcreci ve Suriye i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131, bu m\u00fcdahalecili\u011fin \u00f6rnekleri aras\u0131nda say\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

      K\u0131sa vadede asker\u00ee ba\u015far\u0131lar elde edilse de uzun vadede radikalle\u015fme, devlet kapasitesinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve Amerikan kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 gibi sonu\u00e7lar tart\u0131\u015fma konusu olmu\u015ftur. Irak ve Suriye\u2019deki istikrars\u0131zl\u0131klar, b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 dengelerini sarsm\u0131\u015f ve yeni g\u00fcvenlik tehditlerine zemin haz\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

      ABD\u2019nin \u0130srail\u2019e verdi\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek, Filistin meselesinde bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinin t\u0131kanmas\u0131 ve b\u00f6lgesel kutupla\u015fman\u0131n derinle\u015fmesi tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131yla birlikte an\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Yemen\u2019de Husilere y\u00f6nelik ABD ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 da vek\u00e2let sava\u015flar\u0131 ve insani krizin a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fmas\u0131 ba\u011flam\u0131nda de\u011ferlendirilmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

      3.4 Asya\u2019da ABD politikalar\u0131n\u0131n etkileri: Orta Asya ve Pasifik<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

      ABD\u2019nin Asya politikas\u0131; \u00c7in ve Rusya etkisini dengelemeye, enerji ve ticaret hatlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcvenceye almaya ve b\u00f6lgesel ittifaklar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeye odaklanmaktad\u0131r. Orta Asya\u2019da asker\u00ee i\u015fbirli\u011fi, enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve \u201cdemokrasi te\u015fvikleri\u201d bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n ara\u00e7lar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yer alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Bununla birlikte, insan haklar\u0131 ve demokrasi ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131nda bask\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131, baz\u0131 Orta Asya \u00fclkelerini Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019e daha fazla yak\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131rabilmi\u015ftir. 2021\u2019de Afganistan\u2019dan \u00e7ekilme, b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fcvenlik mimarisi tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen bir e\u015fik olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Pasifik\u2019te ABD; Japonya, G\u00fcney Kore, Avustralya ve Filipinler ile asker\u00ee i\u015fbirli\u011fini derinle\u015ftirerek \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fini dengelemeyi hedeflemektedir. Tayvan ve G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi kaynakl\u0131 gerilimler ise cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k, silahlanma ve kriz y\u00f6netimi ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

      3.5 Avrupa\u2019da ABD politikalar\u0131n\u0131n etkileri: Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131 ve g\u00fcvenlik mimarisinin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

      ABD\u2019nin Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndaki liderli\u011fi, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik mimarisini d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. ABD\u2019nin asker\u00ee ve mali deste\u011fi, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n direncini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015f; Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ilerleyi\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir fakt\u00f6r olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD\u2019nin Avrupa\u2019daki rol\u00fcn\u00fc azaltmaya d\u00f6n\u00fck a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, AB\u2019nin savunma kapasitesini art\u0131rma bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Avrupa\u2019dan asker ve silah \u00e7ekme tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131, NATO i\u00e7indeki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengeleri ve transatlantik ittifak\u0131n gelece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirsizlik \u00fcretmi\u015ftir. Savunma harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 talepleri, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n \u201cstratejik \u00f6zerklik\u201d aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131ran unsurlardan biri olarak ele al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

      3.6 K\u00fcresel riskler ve uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczen<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

      ABD\u2019nin m\u00fcdahaleci \u00e7izgisi; m\u00fcttefikler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcven sorunlar\u0131, radikalle\u015fme ve b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7 rekabetinin sertle\u015fmesi gibi sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabilmektedir. ABD-\u00c7in ve ABD-Rusya ili\u015fkilerinin \u201cs\u0131f\u0131r toplaml\u0131\u201d bir rekabet mant\u0131\u011f\u0131na yakla\u015fmas\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fclkelerin manevra alan\u0131n\u0131 daraltabilir; k\u00fcresel y\u00f6neti\u015fimde bo\u015fluklar yaratabilir.<\/span><\/p>\n

        \n
      1. ABD-\u00c7in rekabetinin k\u00fcresel sisteme etkileri: ekonomik, \u00e7evresel ve diplomatik sonu\u00e7lar<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        4.1 Ekonomik boyut<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

        2026 itibar\u0131yla ABD-\u00c7in rekabeti; ticaret, teknoloji, savunma ve diplomasi alanlar\u0131nda k\u00fcresel dengeleri belirlemeye devam etmektedir. Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k s\u00fcrse de stratejik alanlarda \u201cse\u00e7ici ayr\u0131\u015fma\u201d (selective decoupling) e\u011filimleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

        ABD teknoloji ihracat kontrolleri ve yat\u0131r\u0131m k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131yla \u00c7in\u2019in ilerleyi\u015fini yava\u015flatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken; \u00c7in yerli \u00fcretim kapasitesini art\u0131rmakta ve alternatif pazarlara y\u00f6nelmektedir. Yar\u0131 iletkenler, yapay zek\u00e2, ye\u015fil teknolojiler ve ileri \u00fcretim kapasitesi gibi alanlar rekabetin yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131klard\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

        \u00c7in\u2019in Ku\u015fak ve Yol Projesi kapsam\u0131nda Avrasya\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli projelere kaynak ay\u0131rmas\u0131; ABD\u2019nin ise enerji hatlar\u0131 ve kara ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden kar\u015f\u0131 a\u011flar kurma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131, jeoekonomik rekabeti derinle\u015ftirmektedir. Ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131, tarifeler ve tedarik zinciri k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 k\u00fcresel belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rmakta; \u00f6zellikle geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

        4.2 \u00c7evresel rekabet ve ye\u015fil teknolojiler<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

        ABD, \u00c7in ve AB aras\u0131nda s\u0131f\u0131r karbon teknolojilerinde belirgin bir rekabet ya\u015fanmaktad\u0131r. Yenilenebilir enerji, bataryal\u0131 elektrikli ara\u00e7lar ve \u0131s\u0131 pompalar\u0131 gibi alanlarda \u00c7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u00fcretim ve \u00f6l\u00e7ek avantaj\u0131na sahiptir; AB ise baz\u0131 alt ba\u015fl\u0131klarda (\u00f6r. yenilenebilir enerji ve \u0131s\u0131 pompalar\u0131) \u00f6nemli bir kapasite sergilemektedir. ABD ise inovasyon ve Ar-Ge yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir performans sunmaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

        2022\u2019de \u00c7in\u2019in yenilenebilir enerjiye 538 milyar dolar, AB\u2019nin 180 milyar dolar ve ABD\u2019nin 138 milyar dolar yat\u0131r\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bilgisi bu rekabetin \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. Bununla birlikte ye\u015fil teknolojiler rekabeti; tedarik zinciri ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131, nadir elementler ve teknoloji \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc m\u00fccadelesi \u00fczerinden yeni jeopolitik riskler \u00fcretmektedir. \u00c7in\u2019in nadir toprak elementleri \u00fczerindeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131, ABD ve AB a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan stratejik bir zafiyet olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

        4.3 Diplomatik sonu\u00e7lar ve \u00e7ok kutupluluk tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

        ABD-\u00c7in rekabeti, sistemin \u00e7ok kutuplulu\u011fa m\u0131 yoksa iki kutuplu bir d\u00fczene mi evrildi\u011fi tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2025 itibar\u0131yla rekabetin giderek ABD ve \u00c7in taraf\u0131ndan belirlenen \u201ce\u015f hegemonik\u201d iki kutuplulu\u011fa yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131; ancak bunun So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019taki kat\u0131 blokla\u015fmadan farkl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde, rekabet ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 i\u015fbirli\u011finin ayn\u0131 anda g\u00f6r\u00fclebildi\u011fi daha esnek bir karakter ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

        Avrupa, Rusya, Hindistan ve di\u011fer b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7lerin etki alan\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde, ABD\u2019nin asker\u00ee, ekonomik ve teknolojik \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirleyici bir fakt\u00f6r olarak kalmaktad\u0131r. ABD\u2019nin daha kapsay\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u00fcresel sistem kurma kapasitesi ise i\u00e7 siyasi kutupla\u015fma ve m\u00fcttefiklerle ya\u015fanan g\u00fcven sorunlar\u0131 nedeniyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. RAND Corporation\u2019\u0131n 2025 tarihli raporu \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, rekabetin tamamen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya mahk\u00fbm olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131; ancak y\u00f6netilebilir bir \u00e7er\u00e7eveye oturtulmas\u0131n\u0131n kritik oldu\u011fu vurgulanmaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

        4.4 Tayvan ve G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi: asker\u00ee ve diplomatik gerilimler<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

        Tayvan, 2026 itibar\u0131yla ABD-\u00c7in rekabetinin en riskli s\u0131cak noktalar\u0131ndan biri olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019in 2027\u2019ye kadar asker\u00ee kapasite hedefleri, ABD\u2019nin Tayvan\u2019a deste\u011fini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla birlikte de\u011ferlendirilmekte; b\u00f6lgesel m\u00fcttefiklerin g\u00fcvenlik kayg\u0131lar\u0131 y\u00fckselmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

        2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in Tayvan \u00e7evresindeki kapsaml\u0131 tatbikatlar\u0131 ve ABD\u2019nin 11 milyar dolarl\u0131k silah paketini onaylamas\u0131, gerilimin asker\u00ee boyutunu b\u00fcy\u00fcten geli\u015fmeler olarak kayda ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019nde \u00c7in\u2019in \u201cgri b\u00f6lge\u201d taktikleri ve deniz\/hava sahas\u0131 s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmeleri, istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k riskini art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. ABD\u2019nin Filipinler ve Japonya ile asker\u00ee i\u015fbirli\u011fini derinle\u015ftirmesi, bu denklemde cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k ve g\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6sterisi yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 beslemektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

        4.5 Y\u00f6netilebilir rekabet ve sistem s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

        ABD-\u00c7in rekabetinin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi; ekonomik kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k, \u00e7evresel i\u015fbirli\u011fi ve diplomatik istikrar mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesine ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. RAND raporunda vurguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7eveyle, rekabetin \u201cy\u00f6netilebilir\u201d kalmas\u0131; kriz y\u00f6netimi, ileti\u015fim kanallar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k tutulmas\u0131 ve risk alg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fru y\u00f6netilmesini gerektirir.<\/span><\/p>\n

        Sonu\u00e7 ve de\u011ferlendirme<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

        2026 y\u0131l\u0131 itibar\u0131yla Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ABD ile asker\u00ee olarak sava\u015fabilecek kapasiteye ula\u015fmas\u0131 k\u0131sa ve orta vadede ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. NATO i\u00e7indeki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengeleri, savunma harcamalar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ve teknolojik yat\u0131r\u0131mlar Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n savunma kapasitesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirse de siyasi irade ve i\u00e7 b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fckteki k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z asker\u00ee g\u00fc\u00e7 olma yolunda ciddi engeller olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. AB\u2019nin ortak savunma vizyonu, veto krizleri ve pop\u00fclist\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sa\u011f hareketlerin y\u00fckseli\u015fiyle daha da zorlanmaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

        AB\u2019nin k\u00fcresel krizlerde pasiflik alg\u0131s\u0131, gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfusun gelecek alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ve i\u00e7 b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc olumsuz etkileyebilmektedir. Ekonomik belirsizlikler, i\u015fsizlik ve kimlik tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 reform kapasitesini s\u0131namaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

        ABD\u2019nin m\u00fcdahaleci \u00e7izgisi, Orta Do\u011fu, Asya ve Avrupa\u2019da istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k, radikalle\u015fme ve m\u00fcttefikler aras\u0131 g\u00fcvensizlik gibi risk alanlar\u0131 do\u011furabilmektedir. ABD\u2019nin k\u00fcresel liderli\u011fi ise i\u00e7 siyasi kutupla\u015fma ve m\u00fcttefiklerle ya\u015fanan gerilimler nedeniyle d\u00f6nemsel dalgalanmalar g\u00f6sterebilmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

        ABD-\u00c7in rekabeti; ticaret, teknoloji, \u00e7evre ve g\u00fcvenlik ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131nda k\u00fcresel sistemi yeniden \u015fekillendirmektedir. Bu rekabetin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi, y\u00f6netilebilir bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve kurulmas\u0131na ve uluslararas\u0131 i\u015fbirli\u011fi kanallar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k tutulmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Uluslararas\u0131 sistem, \u00e7ok kutuplulu\u011fa evrilen; ancak h\u00e2l\u00e2 ABD ve \u00c7in\u2019in belirleyici oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6neme girmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. Bu yeni d\u00f6nemde kriz y\u00f6netimi, i\u015fbirli\u011fi ve stratejik sab\u0131r, k\u00fcresel bar\u0131\u015f ve istikrar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

        Kaynak\u00e7a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

          \n
        • NATO Defence Expenditure Report, 2025.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), \u201cEurope\u2019s Strategic Autonomy Debate\u201d, 2024.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Military Expenditure Database, 2025.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • RAND Corporation, \u201cUS vs European Military Capabilities\u201d, 2023.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • Brookings Institution, \u201cTransatlantic Security and NATO\u2019s Future\u201d, 2024.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • European Commission, \u201cEU-China Strategic Competition Report\u201d, 2025.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), \u201cUS Foreign Policy and Expansionism\u201d, 2024.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, \u201cRisks of US Interventionism\u201d, 2023.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • Chatham House, \u201cEurope\u2019s Identity Crisis in Global Politics\u201d, 2024.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • Pew Research Center, \u201cEuropean Youth and Future Perceptions\u201d, 2025.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • International Monetary Fund (IMF), \u201cGlobal Economic Outlook\u201d, 2025.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • World Bank, \u201cUS-China Trade Rivalry Impact\u201d, 2024.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • UNCTAD, \u201cGlobal Supply Chains and Geopolitics\u201d, 2025.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • Financial Times, \u201cUS-China Tech War Escalates\u201d, 2025.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • BBC News, \u201cEurope\u2019s Military Readiness Debate\u201d, 2024.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • Politico Europe, \u201cEU\u2019s Strategic Autonomy Challenges\u201d, 2025.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • Al Jazeera, \u201cUS Foreign Policy in the Middle East\u201d, 2024.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • Foreign Affairs, \u201cThe Risks of American Expansionism\u201d, 2023.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • Der Spiegel, \u201cGermany\u2019s Defence Spending Debate\u201d, 2025.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • Le Monde, \u201cFrance\u2019s Role in NATO\u201d, 2024.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • New York Times, \u201cUS-China Rivalry and Global Risks\u201d, 2025.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • Washington Post, \u201cBiden\/Trump Administration\u2019s Foreign Policy Outlook\u201d, 2025.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • Bloomberg, \u201cGlobal Markets and US-China Competition\u201d, 2025.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), \u201cFuture of Global Order\u201d, 2025.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          .<\/span><\/p>\n

           <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          2026 y\u0131l\u0131na girerken, uluslararas\u0131 sistemdeki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengeleri ve jeopolitik dinamikler, So\u011fuk Sava\u015f sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemin al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f kal\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla a\u015fan bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm s\u00fcrecine girmi\u015ftir. Avrupa’n\u0131n askeri kapasitesi, ABD’nin k\u00fcresel liderli\u011fi, \u00c7in’in y\u00fckseli\u015fi ve \u00e7ok kutupluluk tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131, hem b\u00f6lgesel hem de k\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde yeni riskler ve f\u0131rsatlar yaratmaktad\u0131r. Bu kapsaml\u0131 analiz, d\u00f6rt temel soruya odaklanarak g\u00fcncel veriler, vaka analizleri ve uzman g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 2026’n\u0131n jeopolitik panoramas\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymay\u0131 ama\u00e7lamaktad\u0131r: Avrupa’n\u0131n ABD ile askeri olarak sava\u015fma kapasitesi, Avrupa’n\u0131n kimlik ve gelecek alg\u0131s\u0131, ABD’nin yay\u0131lmac\u0131 politikalar\u0131n\u0131n riskleri ve ABD-\u00c7in rekabetinin k\u00fcresel sistem \u00fczerindeki etkileri.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2477,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiz"],"yoast_head":"\nAvrupa'n\u0131n Askeri Kapasitesi, Kimlik Krizi, ABD'nin Yay\u0131lmac\u0131 Politikalar\u0131 ve ABD-\u00c7in Rekabetinin K\u00fcresel Etkileri - Merceknet Haber<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/01\/21\/avrupanin-askeri-kapasitesi-kimlik-krizi-abdnin-yayilmaci-politikalari-ve-abd-cin-rekabetinin-kuresel-etkileri\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Avrupa'n\u0131n Askeri Kapasitesi, Kimlik Krizi, ABD'nin Yay\u0131lmac\u0131 Politikalar\u0131 ve ABD-\u00c7in Rekabetinin K\u00fcresel Etkileri - Merceknet Haber\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"2026 y\u0131l\u0131na girerken, uluslararas\u0131 sistemdeki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengeleri ve jeopolitik dinamikler, So\u011fuk Sava\u015f sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemin al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f kal\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla a\u015fan bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm s\u00fcrecine girmi\u015ftir. Avrupa'n\u0131n askeri kapasitesi, ABD'nin k\u00fcresel liderli\u011fi, \u00c7in'in y\u00fckseli\u015fi ve \u00e7ok kutupluluk tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131, hem b\u00f6lgesel hem de k\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde yeni riskler ve f\u0131rsatlar yaratmaktad\u0131r. Bu kapsaml\u0131 analiz, d\u00f6rt temel soruya odaklanarak g\u00fcncel veriler, vaka analizleri ve uzman g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 2026'n\u0131n jeopolitik panoramas\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymay\u0131 ama\u00e7lamaktad\u0131r: Avrupa'n\u0131n ABD ile askeri olarak sava\u015fma kapasitesi, Avrupa'n\u0131n kimlik ve gelecek alg\u0131s\u0131, ABD'nin yay\u0131lmac\u0131 politikalar\u0131n\u0131n riskleri ve ABD-\u00c7in rekabetinin k\u00fcresel sistem \u00fczerindeki etkileri.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/01\/21\/avrupanin-askeri-kapasitesi-kimlik-krizi-abdnin-yayilmaci-politikalari-ve-abd-cin-rekabetinin-kuresel-etkileri\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Merceknet Haber\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/merceknet\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-01-21T12:56:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta 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