{"id":2071,"date":"2026-01-19T09:18:16","date_gmt":"2026-01-19T06:18:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/?p=2071"},"modified":"2026-01-19T09:20:08","modified_gmt":"2026-01-19T06:20:08","slug":"haftaya-nasil-basliyor-borsa-kur-altin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/01\/19\/haftaya-nasil-basliyor-borsa-kur-altin\/","title":{"rendered":"Hafta nas\u0131l ba\u015fl\u0131yor? Borsa, kur, alt\u0131n&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>A\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f seviyeleri: Piyasalar haftaya hangi seviyelerden giriyor?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Haftan\u0131n ilk i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde piyasa ekranlar\u0131, i\u00e7eride <strong>faiz karar\u0131<\/strong>, d\u0131\u015far\u0131da <strong>ticaret gerilimi<\/strong> ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. Sabah saatlerinde (07.20 itibar\u0131yla) <strong>dolar\/TL 43,2608\u201343,2687 band\u0131nda<\/strong> seyrederken <strong>euro\/TL 50,3865<\/strong> civar\u0131nda fiyatland\u0131. Kur cephesinde ilk g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u201ctemkinli-yatay\u201d bir ba\u015flang\u0131ca i\u015faret ederken; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, hafta i\u00e7inde gelecek politika sinyallerine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n<p>Borsa \u0130stanbul taraf\u0131nda ise g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n etkisi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. <strong>BIST 100 endeksi 12.668,52<\/strong> ile haftay\u0131 <strong>rekor kapan\u0131\u015f<\/strong> tonunda tamamlad\u0131. Endeksin zirve b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n seyrini korumas\u0131, yeni haftada \u201civme devam eder mi, yoksa soluklanma m\u0131 gelir?\u201d sorusunu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Bu noktada hem i\u00e7eride para politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiler hem de k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim, fiyatlaman\u0131n ana belirleyicileri olacak.<\/p>\n<p>Emtia taraf\u0131nda tablo daha net: <strong>alt\u0131n<\/strong>, g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin deste\u011fiyle haftaya g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc giriyor. Sabah verilerine g\u00f6re <strong>gram alt\u0131n 6.480,5970 TL<\/strong>, <strong>\u00e7eyrek alt\u0131n 10.595,8900 TL<\/strong> d\u00fczeyinde; k\u00fcresel g\u00f6sterge olan <strong>ons alt\u0131n 4.597,34 dolar<\/strong> seviyesinde izleniyor. Ons taraf\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek seviye, gram alt\u0131n\u0131n TL baz\u0131ndaki seyrine de do\u011frudan yans\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Haftan\u0131n ana g\u00fcndemi: Risk nereden, f\u0131rsat nereden?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>1) D\u0131\u015far\u0131da \u201ctarife \u015foku\u201d: risk i\u015ftah\u0131nda k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k<\/strong><br \/>\nK\u00fcresel piyasalarda haftan\u0131n ana ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, ABD kaynakl\u0131 tarife s\u00f6yleminin yeniden sertle\u015fmesi. Trump\u2019\u0131n Gr\u00f6nland \u00fczerinden Avrupa\u2019ya d\u00f6n\u00fck tarife tehdidi, k\u00fcresel varl\u0131klarda dalgalanmay\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken g\u00fcvenli limanlara y\u00f6nelimi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu hava, hafta boyunca <strong>d\u00f6viz\u2013emtia\u2013hisse senedi<\/strong> dengesinde belirleyici d\u0131\u015f fakt\u00f6r olmaya aday.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2) \u0130\u00e7eride odak: TCMB\u2019nin y\u0131l\u0131n ilk faiz karar\u0131 (22 Ocak)<\/strong><br \/>\nYurti\u00e7i fiyatlamalarda g\u00f6zler 22 Ocak\u2019ta T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019nda. Piyasa ana senaryosu, <strong>150 baz puanl\u0131k indirimle politika faizinin %38\u2019den %36,5\u2019e \u00e7ekilmesi<\/strong> y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Ancak enflasyon taraf\u0131nda \u201cy\u00fcksek a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u201d vurgusu dikkat \u00e7ekiyor: Bir kurum \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda <strong>Ocak T\u00dcFE art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde<\/strong>, \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergelerle <strong>yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,13<\/strong> civar\u0131nda \u015fekillendi\u011fi not ediliyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ad\u0131mlar\u0131nda <strong>temkin<\/strong> ihtimalini g\u00fcndemde tutuyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>3) Yabanc\u0131 ak\u0131m\u0131 ve rezervler: fiyatlaman\u0131n arka plan\u0131<\/strong><br \/>\nBorsa ve tahvil taraf\u0131nda i\u015ftah\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en en kritik g\u00f6stergelerden biri yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ak\u0131m\u0131. Ayn\u0131 rapora g\u00f6re <strong>2\u20139 Ocak haftas\u0131nda<\/strong> yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 <strong>hissede 237,6 milyon dolar<\/strong>, <strong>tahvilde (repo hari\u00e7) 864,8 milyon dolar<\/strong> net al\u0131m yapt\u0131. Rezerv taraf\u0131nda ise <strong>TCMB net d\u00f6viz rezervi 82,8 milyar dolar<\/strong>, <strong>br\u00fct rezerv 196,1 milyar dolar<\/strong>, <strong>swap hari\u00e7 net rezerv 70 milyar dolar<\/strong> seviyelerine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ba\u015fl\u0131klar, \u201cBIST\u2019te risk i\u015ftah\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor mu?\u201d sorusunun veri taraf\u0131ndaki temel dayanaklar\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>4) Kredi notu ajandas\u0131 (23 Ocak): Fitch\u2013Moody\u2019s takvimi<\/strong><br \/>\nHaftan\u0131n bir di\u011fer kritik izleme ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 <strong>23 Ocak 2026<\/strong>. Fitch ve Moody\u2019s takviminde g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bu tarih; her ne kadar \u201cmutlaka rapor gelecek\u201d anlam\u0131na gelmese de, piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan <strong>haber riski<\/strong> yaratabiliyor. Not g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne dair olas\u0131 mesajlar, hem kur hem tahvil hem de borsa fiyatlamas\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli dalga boyunu art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Borsa: Rekor kapan\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 \u201civme mi, soluklanma m\u0131?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>BIST 100\u2019\u00fcn zirve b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n seyri yeni haftaya g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir psikolojiyle girildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Ancak bu hafta iki eksen \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>F\u0131rsat taraf\u0131:<\/strong> Faiz indirimi beklentisi ve yabanc\u0131 giri\u015finin s\u00fcrmesi, \u00f6zellikle bankac\u0131l\u0131k\u2013holding a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tutabilir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Risk taraf\u0131:<\/strong> K\u00fcresel tarife gerilimi b\u00fcy\u00fcr ve \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d dalgas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirse, rekor b\u00f6lgesinde <strong>k\u00e2r realizasyonu<\/strong> riski artabilir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>D\u00f6viz: S\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k bantta \u201cveri + karar\u201d k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Dolar\/TL\u2019nin 43,26 band\u0131nda, euronun 50,38 civar\u0131nda ba\u015flamas\u0131; kurda k\u0131sa vadede <strong>haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 odakl\u0131<\/strong> bir y\u00f6n aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Haftan\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lma noktalar\u0131;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>TCMB\u2019nin karar\u0131 ve mesaj seti (22 Ocak)<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>K\u00fcresel tarafta tarife geriliminin seyri<\/strong><br \/>\nolacak.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Alt\u0131n: G\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle zirve testleri<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Gram alt\u0131n 6.480 TL civar\u0131nda; ons 4.597 dolar seviyesinde. K\u0131sa vadede alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcnde belirleyici unsur, jeopolitik\/ticaret kaynakl\u0131 riskler ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 <strong>g\u00fcvenli liman<\/strong> talebi. K\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n bozuldu\u011fu senaryoda alt\u0131n lehine g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131 senaryoda dalgalanma artabilir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Haftan\u0131n takvim notlar\u0131: Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 neyi izleyecek?<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>19 Ocak:<\/strong> ABD\u2019de piyasalar <strong>Martin Luther King G\u00fcn\u00fc<\/strong> nedeniyle kapal\u0131; bu durum k\u00fcresel i\u015flem hacminde \u201clikidite etkisi\u201d yaratabilir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>22 Ocak:<\/strong> <strong>TCMB faiz karar\u0131<\/strong> \u2014 piyasada 150 bp indirim ana senaryo.<\/li>\n<li><strong>23 Ocak:<\/strong> <strong>Fitch ve Moody\u2019s<\/strong> takvim ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2014 alg\u0131 ve volatilite a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik izleme tarihi<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>19 Ocak 2026 sabah\u0131nda piyasalar; BIST 100\u2019\u00fcn rekor kapan\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 ivmesini, kur cephesinde yatay-s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyri ve alt\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel risklerle yeniden zirve denemelerini ayn\u0131 anda fiyatl\u0131yor. Haftan\u0131n ana ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131; 22 Ocak\u2019taki TCMB faiz karar\u0131, 23 Ocak\u2019ta beklenen kredi notu ajandas\u0131 ve ABD\u2019nin Avrupa\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik tarife restiyle k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":864,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2071","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Hafta nas\u0131l ba\u015fl\u0131yor? 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