{"id":20312,"date":"2026-04-20T12:49:16","date_gmt":"2026-04-20T09:49:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/?p=20312"},"modified":"2026-04-21T12:05:03","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T09:05:03","slug":"tusiar-yeni-anket-yayinladi-ak-parti-birinci-sirada-yer-aliyor-dis-politikaya-temkinli-destek-var","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/04\/20\/tusiar-yeni-anket-yayinladi-ak-parti-birinci-sirada-yer-aliyor-dis-politikaya-temkinli-destek-var\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00dcS\u0130AR yeni anket yay\u0131nlad\u0131: AK Parti birinci s\u0131rada yer al\u0131yor, d\u0131\u015f politikaya temkinli destek var"},"content":{"rendered":"

T\u00dcS\u0130AR Ara\u015ft\u0131rma ve Dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k\u2019\u0131n Nisan 2026 tarihli T\u00fcrkiye G\u00fcndem Ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131, yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de siyasal rekabetin y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ancak dengelerin hen\u00fcz netle\u015fmedi\u011fini ortaya koydu. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re se\u00e7men tercihi iki b\u00fcy\u00fck parti etraf\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131rken, se\u00e7im sonucunu belirleyecek kritik alan orta \u00f6l\u00e7ekli partiler ve karars\u0131z se\u00e7men kitlesi olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u00c7al\u0131\u015fma, yaln\u0131zca se\u00e7im e\u011filimlerini de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f politika \u00e7izgisine y\u00f6nelik kamuoyu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 da ortaya koyuyor. Genel tablo, i\u00e7 politikada k\u0131r\u0131lgan denge, d\u0131\u015f politikada ise temkinli destek olarak \u00f6zetleniyor.<\/p>\n

Se\u00e7men E\u011filimleri: Yar\u0131\u015f ba\u015fa ba\u015f, fark kritik seviyede<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re bug\u00fcn milletvekilli\u011fi se\u00e7imi yap\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde AK Parti y\u00fczde 31,6 ile ilk s\u0131rada yer al\u0131rken, CHP y\u00fczde 29,5 ile yak\u0131n takipte bulunuyor. \u0130ki parti aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n 2,1 puanda kalmas\u0131, se\u00e7im yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k ara bir \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fckten uzak, ba\u015fa ba\u015f s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130lk iki partinin toplam oy oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 61,1\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131, se\u00e7men davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde iki ana eksende yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Ancak bu tabloya ra\u011fmen se\u00e7im sonucu hen\u00fcz kesinle\u015fmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, se\u00e7im sonucunda belirleyici rol\u00fcn orta \u00f6l\u00e7ekli partilerde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. DEM Parti, MHP, Yeniden Refah Partisi ve \u0130Y\u0130 Parti ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bu partilerin toplam oy oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu durum, se\u00e7im yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca iki parti aras\u0131nda ge\u00e7medi\u011fini; \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc blokta yer alan partilerin performans\u0131n\u0131n ve se\u00e7men ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin sonucu do\u011frudan etkileyece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Milletvekilli\u011fi Se\u00e7im Anketi: Parti da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Parti<\/strong><\/td>\nOy Oran\u0131 (%)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
AK Parti<\/td>\n31,6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CHP<\/td>\n29,5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DEM Parti<\/td>\n8,7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MHP<\/td>\n7,5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u0130Y\u0130 Parti<\/td>\n5,4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Zafer Partisi<\/td>\n3,9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Yeniden Refah Partisi<\/td>\n3,7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
T\u0130P<\/td>\n3,1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Di\u011fer<\/td>\n3,1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Not: Karars\u0131z se\u00e7menler mevcut da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma g\u00f6re orant\u0131sal olarak da\u011f\u0131t\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/em><\/p>\n

D\u0131\u015f Politika: Destek \u00e7o\u011funlukta, ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011fil<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmada kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lara ABD, \u0130srail ve \u0130ran aras\u0131nda devam eden gerilim s\u00fcrecinde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin izledi\u011fi d\u0131\u015f politika soruldu. Sonu\u00e7lara g\u00f6re toplumun y\u00fczde 61,4\u2019\u00fc d\u0131\u015f politikay\u0131 olumlu de\u011ferlendiriyor.<\/p>\n

Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k y\u00fczde 21,4\u2019l\u00fck kesim olumsuz g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f bildirirken, y\u00fczde 17,2\u2019lik kesim karars\u0131z veya n\u00f6tr kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

D\u0131\u015f Politika Anketi: Kamuoyu da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
De\u011ferlendirme<\/strong><\/td>\nOran (%)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Olumlu<\/td>\n61,4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Olumsuz<\/td>\n21,4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Karars\u0131z \/ N\u00f6tr<\/td>\n17,2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

De\u011ferlendirme: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de tablo net de\u011fil<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rma sonu\u00e7lar\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de hem siyasal dengelerin hem de kamuoyu e\u011filimlerinin hen\u00fcz kesinle\u015fmedi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. \u0130ki b\u00fcy\u00fck parti aras\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 fark, se\u00e7men tercihlerinin de\u011fi\u015fime a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterirken; orta \u00f6l\u00e7ekli partiler se\u00e7im sonucunun ana belirleyicisi olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

D\u0131\u015f politikada ise \u00e7o\u011funluk deste\u011fi bulunmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen bu deste\u011fin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve ko\u015fulsuz olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Kamuoyu, mevcut politikay\u0131 desteklerken ayn\u0131 zamanda temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m sergiliyor.<\/p>\n

Genel tabloya g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de siyaset y\u00fcksek rekabet ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan denge i\u00e7inde ilerlerken, se\u00e7men e\u011filimleri ve kamuoyu alg\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te de\u011fi\u015fime a\u00e7\u0131k bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiliyor.<\/p>\n

ANAL\u0130Z | T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de siyasal denge \u00fc\u00e7 akt\u00f6rl\u00fc yap\u0131ya evriliyor<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u00dcS\u0130AR\u2019\u0131n Nisan 2026 tarihli T\u00fcrkiye G\u00fcndem Ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de siyasal rekabetin yaln\u0131zca iki b\u00fcy\u00fck parti ekseninde okunamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyan \u00f6nemli veriler sunuyor. Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, y\u00fczeyde AK Parti ile CHP aras\u0131nda ba\u015fa ba\u015f bir yar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc verse de, derinlemesine incelendi\u011finde se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 belirleyecek as\u0131l alan\u0131n orta \u00f6l\u00e7ekli partiler ve karars\u0131z se\u00e7men kitlesi oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fck partilerde s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma: Y\u00fcksek oy, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geni\u015fleme<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re AK Parti y\u00fczde 31,6, CHP ise y\u00fczde 29,5 seviyesinde bulunuyor. \u0130ki parti aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131, siyasal rekabetin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterirken, toplam oy oranlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 61,1 d\u00fczeyinde kalmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekici bir ba\u015fka veri sunuyor.<\/p>\n

Bu tablo, b\u00fcy\u00fck partilerin geni\u015fleme kapasitesinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Her iki parti de kendi \u00e7ekirdek se\u00e7men taban\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde korumakta; ancak bu taban\u0131 anlaml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde b\u00fcy\u00fctebilecek bir ivme \u00fcretmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Bu durum, T\u00fcrkiye siyasetinde se\u00e7men davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n belirli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde konsolide oldu\u011funu, ancak hen\u00fcz kesinle\u015fmi\u015f bir y\u00f6nelime d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n

Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imi perspektifinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise bu veri daha kritik bir anlam kazan\u0131yor. Y\u00fczde 30 band\u0131nda seyreden oy oranlar\u0131, hi\u00e7bir b\u00fcy\u00fck partinin tek ba\u015f\u0131na y\u00fczde 50+1 seviyesine ula\u015famayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle se\u00e7im kazanma kapasitesi, b\u00fcy\u00fck partilerin performans\u0131ndan \u00e7ok, kuracaklar\u0131 ittifaklar\u0131n niteli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 hale gelmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n

Orta \u00f6l\u00e7ekli partiler: Denge belirleyici konumda<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n en belirleyici bulgular\u0131ndan biri, orta \u00f6l\u00e7ekli partilerin toplam a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. DEM Parti (%8,7), MHP (%7,5), \u0130Y\u0130 Parti (%5,4) ve Yeniden Refah Partisi (3,7) ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bu partilerin toplam oy oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Buna y\u00fczde 3\u20134 band\u0131ndaki di\u011fer partiler de eklendi\u011finde, siyasal sistem i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te birlik bir alan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck partiler d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda konumland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bu durum, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca iki b\u00fcy\u00fck parti aras\u0131ndaki rekabetle belirlenmedi\u011fini; aksine \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir denge alan\u0131n\u0131n belirleyici hale geldi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n

Bu yap\u0131, \u00f6zellikle cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan do\u011frudan sonu\u00e7 \u00fcretmektedir. Y\u00fczde 50+1 baraj\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, orta \u00f6l\u00e7ekli partilerin deste\u011fi olmadan herhangi bir aday\u0131n se\u00e7imi kazanmas\u0131 matematiksel olarak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu partiler art\u0131k sistemin \u00e7evresinde konumlanan akt\u00f6rler de\u011fil, se\u00e7im sonucunu do\u011frudan belirleyen merkezi unsurlar haline gelmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Se\u00e7men davran\u0131\u015f\u0131: Esnek ve de\u011fi\u015fime a\u00e7\u0131k yap\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmada karars\u0131z se\u00e7menlerin da\u011f\u0131t\u0131larak hesaplama yap\u0131lmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan dengelerin h\u00e2l\u00e2 k\u0131r\u0131lgan olmas\u0131 se\u00e7men davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n esnekli\u011fine i\u015faret etmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bu durum, se\u00e7men ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6nemlere k\u0131yasla daha zay\u0131f ve ge\u00e7i\u015fken oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir. \u00d6zellikle ikinci tur cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinde, farkl\u0131 parti se\u00e7menleri aras\u0131nda y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimlerinin belirleyici olma ihtimali g\u00fc\u00e7lenmektedir.<\/p>\n

Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla mevcut tablo, yaln\u0131zca partilerin oy oranlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil, se\u00e7men ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc de analiz etmeyi zorunlu k\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

D\u0131\u015f politika: Kutupla\u015fmay\u0131 a\u015fan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 mutabakat alan\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n dikkat \u00e7eken bir di\u011fer bulgusu, d\u0131\u015f politika ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan kamuoyu e\u011filimidir. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fczde 61,4\u2019\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin izledi\u011fi d\u0131\u015f politikay\u0131 olumlu de\u011ferlendirmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte y\u00fczde 21,4\u2019l\u00fck bir kesim olumsuz g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f bildirirken, y\u00fczde 17,2\u2019lik kesim karars\u0131z veya n\u00f6tr bir tutum sergilemektedir.<\/p>\n

Bu da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m, d\u0131\u015f politikada belirli bir toplumsal kabul oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterse de, bu kabul\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve ko\u015fulsuz bir destek anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011fini ortaya koymaktad\u0131r. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmada \u201c\u00e7ok do\u011fru buluyorum\u201d diyenlerin oran\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131, deste\u011fin daha \u00e7ok temkinli ve performansa ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcrmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede d\u0131\u015f politika, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de i\u00e7 siyasetteki sert kutupla\u015fman\u0131n k\u0131smen a\u015f\u0131labildi\u011fi nadir alanlardan biri olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. Ancak bu durum kal\u0131c\u0131 bir uzla\u015f\u0131dan ziyade, geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak de\u011fi\u015febilecek k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir dengeyi ifade etmektedir.<\/p>\n

\u0130ki kutuplu yap\u0131dan \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc denge sistemine ge\u00e7i\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n ortaya koydu\u011fu genel tablo, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de siyasal yap\u0131n\u0131n iki kutuplu bir rekabetten daha karma\u015f\u0131k bir denge sistemine evrildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir yanda birbirine yak\u0131n oy oranlar\u0131na sahip iki b\u00fcy\u00fck parti, di\u011fer yanda toplamda belirleyici a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011fa ula\u015fan orta \u00f6l\u00e7ekli partiler ve de\u011fi\u015fken bir se\u00e7men kitlesi bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bu \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yap\u0131, se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca b\u00fcy\u00fck partilerin performans\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu tablo ittifak siyasetinin zorunlulu\u011funu peki\u015ftirmektedir. Hi\u00e7bir akt\u00f6r\u00fcn tek ba\u015f\u0131na \u00e7o\u011funluk \u00fcretemedi\u011fi bir sistemde, se\u00e7im kazanma kapasitesi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde farkl\u0131 se\u00e7men bloklar\u0131n\u0131 bir araya getirme becerisine ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

D\u0131\u015f politikada ise toplumun \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc mevcut yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 desteklemekle birlikte, bu deste\u011fin temkinli oldu\u011fu ve geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak yeniden \u015fekillenebilece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de siyasal rekabet y\u00fcksek, dengeler k\u0131r\u0131lgan ve se\u00e7men davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fime a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Bu yap\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde hem i\u00e7 politikada hem de d\u0131\u015f politikada at\u0131lacak ad\u0131mlar\u0131n kamuoyu e\u011filimleri \u00fczerinde belirleyici olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00dcS\u0130AR\u2019\u0131n Nisan 2026 ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na g\u00f6re AK Parti ile CHP aras\u0131ndaki fark 2,1 puana kadar gerilerken, se\u00e7im sonucunu orta \u00f6l\u00e7ekli partiler ve karars\u0131z se\u00e7menler belirleyecek; d\u0131\u015f politikaya ise toplumdan temkinli destek geliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":20316,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[582,5701,247,3009,7099],"class_list":["post-20312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiz","tag-dispolitika","tag-secimanketi","tag-siyaset","tag-turkiyegundemi","tag-tusiar"],"yoast_head":"\nT\u00dcS\u0130AR yeni anket yay\u0131nlad\u0131: AK Parti birinci s\u0131rada yer al\u0131yor, d\u0131\u015f politikaya temkinli destek var - Merceknet Haber<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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