Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Toplum Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Vakf\u0131ndan (SETA) ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 B\u00fc\u015fra Zeynep \u00d6zdemir, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya enerji piyasalar\u0131na etkisini analiz i\u00e7in kaleme ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
***<\/p>\n
ABD\/\u0130srail ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ile ba\u015flayan sava\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 8 Nisan\u2019da ilan edilen ate\u015fkes, enerji piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir normalle\u015fme \u00fcretemedi. \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019a sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ile ihlal etti\u011fi s\u00fcre\u00e7 Bo\u011faz\u2019da ABD ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerginlikle devam ederken piyasalarda fiziksel daralma, art\u0131k iyice hissedilir duruma geldi. Tanker takip sistemleri, 28 \u015eubat\u2019tan bu yana K\u00f6rfez kaynakl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 9 milyon varil\/g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcretimin \u00e7evrim d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken nisanda bu miktar\u0131n artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu durum kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olunan krizin yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7ici bir fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 de\u011fil k\u00fcresel enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fini yeniden tan\u0131mlayan yap\u0131sal bir sars\u0131nt\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Birol, mevcut krizi Ajans\u2019\u0131n kurulmas\u0131na neden olan 1970\u2019lerdeki petrol krizlerinin toplam\u0131ndan bile daha \u015fiddetli olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131. Krizin en kritik boyutu ise H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019deki ge\u00e7i\u015fin art\u0131k tek ba\u015f\u0131na bir belirleyici olmaktan \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131. Sava\u015f, do\u011frudan enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131yla devam ediyor. En b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc LNG ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan Katar, Ras Laffan ve Mesaieed tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar sonucunda gaz s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ask\u0131ya ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f; \u00c7in, G\u00fcney Kore ve Japonya gibi uzun d\u00f6nemli kontratlar\u0131 i\u00e7in ise force majeure (m\u00fccbir sebep) ilan etmi\u015fti. Bu nedenle piyasalarda beklentiler, 2026 k\u00fcresel LNG arz\u0131n\u0131n 35 milyon tona dek gerileyebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde \u015fekilleniyor.<\/p>\n
Suudi Arabistan\u2019da sald\u0131r\u0131lar, g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcretim kapasitesini yakla\u015f\u0131k 600 bin varil, do\u011fu-bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 da yakla\u015f\u0131k 700 bin varil d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Benzer bir durum Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri\u2019nde (BAE) de ge\u00e7erli, Fujairah hatt\u0131 ve liman faaliyetleri aksarken mart ay\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 70\u2019ten fazla gerilemesi, b\u00f6lgedeki ikame g\u00fczergahlar\u0131n da k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu ortaya koydu. Irak, yine en fazla etkilenen \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda, \u00fclkenin g\u00fcneyindeki \u00fcretimin y\u00fczde 70\u2019ten fazla, ihracat\u0131n da y\u00fczde 80\u2019in \u00fczerinde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Sava\u015f\u0131n taraflar\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019da ise petrokimya ihracat\u0131n\u0131n ask\u0131ya al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131nda toplam hasar onar\u0131m maliyetinin 60 milyar dolar\u0131 bulabilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki bu g\u00fcncel durum \u00fcretimden ihracata uzanan t\u00fcm tedarik zincirinde sava\u015f\u0131n etkilerinin ciddi boyutlara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130thalat\u00e7\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kriz, birden fazla katmanda hissediliyor. Y\u00fcksek fiyatlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda fiziksel arz\u0131n da geri \u00e7ekilmesi, baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde ciddi krize yol a\u00e7ma potansiyeline sahip. En g\u00f6ze \u00e7arpan \u00f6rneklerden biri Japonya, petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 90\u2019\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131. Sanayisinin g\u00fcvenli\u011fi tehlikeye giren Tokyo, enerji diplomasisini h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131yor. ABD petrol\u00fcne y\u00f6nelen \u00fclkede h\u00fck\u00fcmet, Asya\u2019daki petrol tedarikini desteklemek i\u00e7in 10 milyar dolarl\u0131k \u00e7er\u00e7eve plan a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Dahas\u0131, krizin devam etmesi halinde may\u0131s itibar\u0131yla kendi stoklar\u0131ndan 36 milyon varillik petrol\u00fc piyasaya s\u00fcrmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130thalat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 14\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019dan kar\u015f\u0131layan \u00c7in, martta petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 kargolar\u0131n ocak ve \u015fubat aylar\u0131nda yola \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 dolay\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131layabildi ancak nisan ay\u0131nda 2 milyon varil\/g\u00fcne yak\u0131n bir gerileme bekleniyor. K\u0131sa vadede stoklar ve artan yerli \u00fcretim ile a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n kapat\u0131labilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken \u015fimdiden rafinerilerin \u00fcretim kapasitesinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor. Ucuz \u0130ran petrol\u00fcne eri\u015fimi kesilen \u00c7in\u2019in uzun s\u00fcreli aksama durumunda hem rafineri marjlar\u0131 hem de ihracata dayal\u0131 sanayisinde maliyetlerin y\u00fckselece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Hindistan ise Japonya\u2019ya benzer \u015fekilde do\u011frudan bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. LNG taraf\u0131ndaki arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131, bilhassa petrokimya sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc zorlarken g\u00fcbre fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fla g\u0131da ve tar\u0131m taraf\u0131nda da maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya.<\/p>\n
Halen Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n etkileriyle m\u00fccadele eden Avrupa Birli\u011fi’nde (AB) kriz, k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n halen y\u00fcksek seviyede oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Ham petrol ve gaz ithalat\u0131nda K\u00f6rfez\u2019e ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olmamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k artan fiyatlar dolay\u0131s\u0131yla maliyetlerde ciddi art\u0131\u015flar ya\u015fan\u0131yor. AB Komisyonu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ursula von der Leyen, fosil yak\u0131t maliyetlerinde \u015fimdiden 22 milyar avroluk art\u0131\u015f kaydedildi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Jet yak\u0131t\u0131 tedarikinin y\u00fczde 75\u2019ini Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan kar\u015f\u0131layan Birlik, acil eylem plan\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131yor. K\u00f6rfez kaynakl\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ABD\u2019den kar\u015f\u0131lamaya y\u00f6nelse de tam bir ikame m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ABD ve Rusya, krizden farkl\u0131 bi\u00e7imlerde etkileniyor. Y\u00fckselen fiyatlar, olduk\u00e7a k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde Orta Do\u011fu petrol\u00fc ithal etmesine ra\u011fmen Trump y\u00f6netimini i\u00e7eride k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. 2022\u2019den bu yana ilk kez 4 dolar seviyesinde seyreden benzin fiyatlar\u0131 eyaletlere g\u00f6re farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6steriyor, Kaliforniya ve Washington\u2019\u0131n aralar\u0131nda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 5 eyalette 5 dolar band\u0131 a\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u00fclkenin ihracat kapasitesi, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131nda rol oynuyor. Ham petrol ihracat\u0131 5,2 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn ile son 7 ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131karak ABD\u2019yi \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ilk kez net ham petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olmaya yakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Rusya ise y\u00fcksek fiyatlar sayesinde daha fazla gelir elde ediyor. Beyaz Saray\u2019dan \u00e7\u0131kan ge\u00e7ici muafiyet karar\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle petrol vergilerinden elde edilen gelirin yakla\u015f\u0131k 9 milyar dolara y\u00fckselece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor ancak muafiyetin sona ermesiyle riskin yeniden ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 muhtemel. \u00d6te yandan 2027 Ocak itibar\u0131yla gaz ithalat\u0131n\u0131 sonland\u0131rma karar\u0131 alan AB\u2019nin artan Rus gaz\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131, Moskova\u2019n\u0131n hala vazge\u00e7ilemez bir akt\u00f6r oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor. Bu durum, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n krizden gelir dev\u015firen taraf olmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak K\u00f6rfez\u2019de ya\u015fananlar, enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden \u201cKim ne kadar \u00fcretiyor?\u201d tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan \u201cHangi altyap\u0131 ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde korunabiliyor?\u201d, \u201cHangi g\u00fczergah ne kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir?\u201d ve \u201cHangi ekonomiler bu \u015foka ne kadar dayanabiliyor?\u201d sorular\u0131 etraf\u0131nda \u015fekillendiriyor. Bug\u00fcn K\u00f6rfez\u2019de zarar g\u00f6ren altyap\u0131, k\u00fcresel piyasalar\u0131n en k\u0131r\u0131lgan halkas\u0131n\u0131n sadece ge\u00e7i\u015f noktalar\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde hem ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar hem de ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar i\u00e7in enerji politikalar\u0131, daha fazla \u00e7e\u015fitlilik, stoklar, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc altyap\u0131 korumas\u0131 ve ciddi talep y\u00f6netimi ekseninde \u015fekillenecek.<\/p>\n
[B\u00fc\u015fra Zeynep \u00d6zdemir, Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Toplum Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Vakf\u0131nda (SETA) enerji \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r.]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
K\u00f6rfez\u2019de ya\u015fananlar, enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden \u201cKim ne kadar \u00fcretiyor?\u201d tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan \u201cHangi altyap\u0131 ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde korunabiliyor?\u201d, \u201cHangi g\u00fczergah ne kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir?\u201d sorular\u0131 etraf\u0131nda \u015fekillendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":19661,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[6879,573],"class_list":["post-19670","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiz","tag-busrazeynepozdemir","tag-hurmuzbogazi"],"yoast_head":"\n