\u0130stanbul \u00dcniversitesi \u0130ktisat Fak\u00fcltesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Prof. Dr. Sad\u0131k \u00dcnay, ABD\/\u0130srail-\u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131ndaki dalgalanmalar\u0131n sebeplerini analiz i\u00e7in kaleme ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
***<\/p>\n
Y\u00fczy\u0131llar boyunca uluslararas\u0131 finansal ili\u015fkilerin temelini olu\u015fturan bir de\u011ferli meta olarak kalan alt\u0131n, 15 A\u011fustos 1971’de “Nixon \u015eoku” olarak bilinen olayla birlikte sermaye birikimi ve de\u011fi\u015fim rollerini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kaybetti. Eski ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Richard Nixon, tek tarafl\u0131 bir kararla dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na belli bir oran (1 ons=35 dolar) \u00fczerinden konvertibilitesini (d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fini) ask\u0131ya alarak Bretton Woods sisteminin kalbindeki sabit kur rejimini devreden \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ulusal para birimlerinin de\u011ferlerinin ABD dolar\u0131na, dolar\u0131n de\u011ferinin ise alt\u0131na ba\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131 esas alan “alt\u0131n-dolar standard\u0131” sona erdikten sonra dalgal\u0131 kur rejimiyle spek\u00fclatif hareketlere ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal k\u00fcreselle\u015fmenin \u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131lm\u0131\u015f oldu. Ayr\u0131ca para birimlerinin g\u00fcncel de\u011ferlerinin alt\u0131n, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi fiziki emtia birikimleri yerine h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin y\u00f6neti\u015fim kabiliyetlerine duyulan g\u00fcven \u00fczerinden belirlendi\u011fi “itibari para” (fiat currency) d\u00f6nemine ge\u00e7ildi. Ancak k\u00fcresel sistemde jeopolitik gerilimlerin, mali sars\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n ve belirsizliklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde hem bireysel ve kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar hem de Merkez Bankalar\u0131 gibi kamusal otoriteler g\u00fcvenli liman olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fckleri alt\u0131n\u0131 portf\u00f6ylerine eklediler. Bu \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda geli\u015fen talep art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ise alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimleri olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 tetikledi.<\/p>\n
2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ABD\/\u0130srail-\u0130ran ekseninde y\u00fckselen tansiyon ve fiziki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma risklerindeki art\u0131\u015f, k\u00fcresel alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda hemen hemen buraya kadar \u00f6zetledi\u011fimiz e\u011filimlerle paralel bir hareket ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. Bireysel ve kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131larla Merkez Bankalar\u0131 \u00fczerinden yo\u011funluk kazanan alt\u0131n talebi, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed\u2019in 2026 i\u00e7inde seri faiz indirimleri yapaca\u011f\u0131na dair beklentilerle birle\u015fince alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda rekor art\u0131\u015flar ya\u015fand\u0131. 28 \u015eubat\u2019ta \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ABD-\u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n hemen ard\u0131ndan ons ba\u015f\u0131na 5 bin 420 dolar seviyesini a\u015farak tarihi zirveye ula\u015fan alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131, ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerde sert sat\u0131\u015flarla ivme kaybedip \u00f6nce 5 bin-5 bin 200 dolar, ard\u0131ndan da 4 bin 750-5 bin dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na geriledi. Peki tarihsel olarak kriz ve istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k d\u00f6nemlerinde g\u00fcvenli liman olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen alt\u0131n, ya\u015fanan son \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada neden kamuoyunda beklenen y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesini devam ettiremedi? Bu sorunun tatmin edici bi\u00e7imde cevaplanabilmesi i\u00e7in birka\u00e7 fakt\u00f6re k\u0131saca de\u011finmekte fayda var.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131 \u00e7izilmesi gereken ilk fakt\u00f6r, uluslararas\u0131 piyasalardaki ekonomik ve politik risk alg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse son bir y\u0131ld\u0131r al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f d\u00fczeylerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde seyrediyor olmalar\u0131yla ilgili. Nitekim ABD\/\u0130srail-\u0130ran hatt\u0131nda 2025 haziran ay\u0131ndan itibaren kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131larla y\u00fckselen askeri-diplomatik tansiyon k\u00fcresel sermaye piyasalar\u0131nda tedirginli\u011fe neden olup Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n sat\u0131n alma programlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rmalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Haziran 2025-\u015eubat 2026 d\u00f6neminde hem alt\u0131n hem de g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f fiyatlar\u0131nda uluslararas\u0131 ekonomik dengelerden kopuk spek\u00fclatif s\u0131\u00e7ramalar g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye ba\u015flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00d6zetle ABD\/\u0130srail-\u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131 hen\u00fcz ba\u015flamadan piyasa akt\u00f6rleri olu\u015fabilecek potansiyel riskleri zaten \u201csat\u0131n alm\u0131\u015f\u201d olduklar\u0131ndan, fiziki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrecinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketler g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
\u0130kinci \u00f6nemli fakt\u00f6r, Washington-Tahran hatt\u0131ndaki gerilimlerin \u00f6zellikle k\u00fcresel enerji lojisti\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6nemdeki H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kontrol\u00fc \u00fczerinde odaklanarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde olu\u015fturdu\u011fu bask\u0131larla ilgiliydi. Zira H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan tanker ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin sald\u0131r\u0131 alt\u0131ndaki \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmeti taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir jeoekonomik manevra arac\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcp s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131 ve ABD\u2019nin buna tepki olarak ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 abluka karar\u0131, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 70 dolardan 100 dolar \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n daha da yukar\u0131lara gidebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki endi\u015feleri kuvvetlendirdi. Y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131, sanayile\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerde enflasyon risklerini art\u0131rarak Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131 para politikalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ad\u0131mlar atmaya zorlad\u0131lar. Ba\u015fta Fed olmak \u00fczere \u00f6nde gelen Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n beklenen faiz indirim kararlar\u0131n\u0131 ertelemeleri, y\u00fcksek faiz getirisi beklentisi i\u00e7indeki kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi de\u011ferli emtialar yerine cazip devlet tahvillerine y\u00f6nelttiler. Bu durum, k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f talebinde ciddi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere yol a\u00e7arak fiyat art\u0131\u015f dinamiklerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00f6nemli fakt\u00f6r, k\u00fcresel gerilim ortam\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen de\u011ferlenmenin dolar ile al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131lan alt\u0131n\u0131 di\u011fer para birimlerini kullanan \u00fclke ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in daha pahal\u0131 hale getirmesiyle ilgiliydi. Dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca k\u00fcresel para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc takip eden \u201cABD Dolar Endeksi\u201d, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n zirve yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015eubat 2026\u2019da 95 seviyesindeyken, Nisan 2026\u2019da 99 seviyesine yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. S\u00f6z konusu geli\u015fme, dolar d\u0131\u015f\u0131 para birimleriyle sat\u0131n alma yapan al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in alt\u0131n\u0131 daha pahal\u0131 hale getirip talebi zay\u0131flatan ve alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 hafifleten etkiler \u00fcretti.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00f6nemli fakt\u00f6r ise ABD ve \u0130srail taraf\u0131ndan n\u00fckleer tehditler gerek\u00e7esiyle \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flat\u0131lan koordineli askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerini hedef alan misilleme operasyonlar\u0131 sonucunda b\u00f6lgesel bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma tablosunu ortaya \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131yd\u0131. Kapsam\u0131 ve \u015fiddeti beklenmedik \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fcyen jeopolitik kriz, hem petrol hem de turizm kaynakl\u0131 gelir ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda ciddi kesintiler ya\u015fayan K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerini acil likidite ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layabilmek ad\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 alt\u0131n sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yapmaya sevk etti. Fakat gerek Suudi Arabistan, Katar ve Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri (BAE) gibi K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri gerekse likidite s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 ya\u015fayan di\u011fer piyasa akt\u00f6rleri, i\u015faret etti\u011fimiz temizlik hareketini konjonkt\u00fcrel bir rahatlama ad\u0131m\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcp alt\u0131n rezervlerini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutmaya devam ettiler.<\/p>\n
Uluslararas\u0131 piyasalarda alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde nas\u0131l bir patika izleyece\u011fi, \u00f6ncelikle \u0130ran-ABD \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes d\u00f6nemi sonunda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f eksenine girip girmeyece\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. Sava\u015f\u0131n geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 bir anla\u015fmayla sona ermesi, ABD dolar\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler i\u00e7in uygun zemin olu\u015fturup alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f fiyatlar\u0131nda yeni art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Genel olarak jeopolitik risklerin y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131, kamu bor\u00e7lulu\u011funun y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 rezervlerinde alt\u0131n pay\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00fcresel ortam uzun vadede fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n normal kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ancak 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen h\u0131zl\u0131 ve yer yer spek\u00fclatif art\u0131\u015f hareketleri yerine ekonomik dinamiklerle ve talep ko\u015fullar\u0131yla uyumlu, \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar beklemek daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olur.<\/p>\n
[Prof. Dr. Sad\u0131k \u00dcnay, \u0130stanbul \u00dcniversitesi \u0130ktisat Fak\u00fcltesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesidir.]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Uluslararas\u0131 piyasalarda alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde nas\u0131l bir patika izleyece\u011fi, \u00f6ncelikle \u0130ran-ABD \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes d\u00f6nemi sonunda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f eksenine girip girmeyece\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":16454,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[265,6783],"class_list":["post-19240","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiz","tag-altin","tag-prof-dr-sadikunay"],"yoast_head":"\n