Amasya \u00dcniversitesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Dr. Yusuf Bahad\u0131r Keskin, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ABD\/\u0130srail-\u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndaki ge\u00e7ici ate\u015fkese olan etkisini analiz i\u00e7in kaleme ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
***<\/p>\n
ABD \/ \u0130srail – \u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir ate\u015fkes s\u00fcrecine girdi. Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Pakistan\u2019\u0131n ev sahipli\u011finde \u0130slamabad\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen m\u00fczakerelerden herhangi bir sonu\u00e7 al\u0131namasa da sava\u015fa hen\u00fcz geri d\u00f6n\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f de\u011fil. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n gerilimi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz’e ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n maliyetlerini co\u011frafi s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00f6tesinde k\u00fcresel ekonomide y\u00f6netilemez krizler do\u011furma tehdidi \u00fcretiyor. \u015e\u00fcphesiz sava\u015f veya bar\u0131\u015fa giden yolda tek ba\u015f\u0131na bir belirleyici olmasa da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz, k\u00fcresel siyasi ve ekonomik hesaplar\u0131 etkileyen \u00f6nemli bir fakt\u00f6r olarak stratejileri \u015fekillendiriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) taraf\u0131ndan \u201cd\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlanan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz, Tahran ad\u0131na devasa bir stratejik koz niteli\u011finde. \u0130ran, sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nemdeki ABD ve \u0130srail tehditlerine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, \u201cH\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatma angajman\u0131n\u0131\u201d \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yordu. K\u00fcresel ticarette deniz yoluyla ta\u015f\u0131nan petrol\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20-25’i (g\u00fcnde ortalama 15-20 milyon varil), s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz\u0131n (LNG) y\u00fczde 20’si H\u00fcrm\u00fcz’den ge\u00e7iyordu. Ayr\u0131ca \u00fcre, amonyak, fosfat gibi g\u00fcbrelerin y\u00fczde 35\u2019i ve mikro\u00e7ip \u00fcretiminde dahi kullan\u0131lan helyumun yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te birinin yine bu 33 kilometre geni\u015fli\u011findeki su yolundan ge\u00e7erek Avrupa ve Asya\u2019ya ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131yordu. T\u00fcm bunlar hesaba kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz, \u201csava\u015f\u0131n, co\u011frafi s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 buharla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n stratejik de\u011ferini art\u0131ran bir di\u011fer nokta, hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ek ve etkin bir alternatifinin olmamas\u0131d\u0131r. Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 Boru Hatt\u0131 ya da Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri\u2019ndeki (BAE) Habshan-F\u00fcceyre Petrol Boru Hatt\u0131 (ADCOP) gibi alternatif rotalar\u0131n kapasitesi 3,5 ila 5,5 milyon varil civar\u0131nda seyretmekte ve 20 milyon varillik bo\u011faz trafi\u011fini telafi etmekten \u00e7ok uzak kalmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin, askeri \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretememesi buradaki ikinci \u00f6nemli noktad\u0131r. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n konvansiyonel askeri kapasitesine, donanmas\u0131na veya hava unsurlar\u0131na ciddi bir zarar verilmi\u015f olsa da bo\u011faz\u0131 sert g\u00fc\u00e7 kullanarak a\u00e7mak, a\u00e7\u0131k tutmak ve may\u0131nlardan temizlemek; \u00e7ok riskli, maliyetli ve aylarca s\u00fcrebilecek bir aray\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yani sahada \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck kurmak, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de sonu\u00e7 almak anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Ortalama derinli\u011fin 50 metre civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu bo\u011faz, deniz ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n manevra kabiliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlamakla kalmamakta; nakliye \u015feridinin \u0130ran k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131na ve adalar\u0131na sadece birka\u00e7 kilometre uzakl\u0131kta olmas\u0131, b\u00f6lgeyi may\u0131nlar ve kara tabanl\u0131 silah sistemleri i\u00e7in ideal bir hedef haline getirmektedir. Zira \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ucuz insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131 (\u0130HA) may\u0131nlar ve k\u0131y\u0131ya konu\u015flu f\u00fczelerden olu\u015fan eri\u015fimi engelleme ve men etme stratejisi, ABD\u2019nin askeri g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn bu dar bo\u011fazda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7arak, sald\u0131r\u0131larla sonu\u00e7 alabilmeyi zorla\u015ft\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bo\u011fazda, klasik anlamda bir \u201ctam kapatma\u201d olmasa da k\u00fcresel sigorta \u015firketlerinin, b\u00f6lgeye y\u00f6nelen gemilerin teminatlar\u0131n\u0131 iptal etmesi, finansal bir abluka meydana getirdi. Sigorta primlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 kat artmas\u0131 ve dev petrol tankerleri i\u00e7in bu rakam\u0131n 3,5 milyon dolar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n ablukaya boyun e\u011fdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Do\u011fal bir sonu\u00e7 olarak Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine t\u0131rmand\u0131 ve 1973\u2019ten bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji \u015foklar\u0131ndan birisi ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00dcstelik sava\u015f\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinden bu yana Arap Yar\u0131madas\u0131\u2019ndaki neredeyse hi\u00e7bir limanda yan\u0131c\u0131, parlay\u0131c\u0131 veya patlay\u0131c\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin elle\u00e7lenmesine izin verilmiyor.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6lgeden uluslararas\u0131 piyasalara hidrokarbon ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131 ya da tamamen kesilmesi, ba\u015fta K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri olmak \u00fczere Hindistan\u2019dan Japonya\u2019ya, G\u00fcney Kore\u2019den \u00c7in\u2019e uzanan geni\u015f bir co\u011frafyada ticari ve lojistik d\u00fczeni sarsmaktad\u0131r. \u015e\u00fcphesiz Bat\u0131 da bu geli\u015fmelerden izole kalamamaktad\u0131r. Enflasyonun yeniden s\u0131\u00e7rama yapmas\u0131 ve tedarik zincirlerinde yeni bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f endi\u015fesi, ate\u015fkesi askeri bir tercihin \u00e7ok \u00f6tesinde k\u00fcresel ekonomik \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00f6nlemek ad\u0131na bir zorunluluk haline getirerek Washington \u00fczerinde ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bir diplomatik bask\u0131 yaratmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya genelinde bir ekonomik resesyonu tetikleyebilecek bu t\u00fcr eylemlerin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7mek ABD ad\u0131na bir tercih de\u011fil, bir mecburiyettir. Nitekim ate\u015fkes g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde ABD taraf\u0131n\u0131n odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeg\u00e2ne hususun \u201cH\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131\u201d olmas\u0131 tesad\u00fcf ya da alelade bir talep de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n enerji tesislerini ve k\u00f6pr\u00fcleri vurmakla hatta \u201cmedeniyetini yok etmekle\u201d tehdit etti\u011fi \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz sayesinde en az\u0131ndan ilk rauntta eli daha rahat olan taraf gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. Washington\u2019\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcn sonunda Pakistan\u2019\u0131n kurdu\u011fu arabuluculuk masas\u0131na oturtan en \u00f6nemli unsur; krizin ABD ve m\u00fcttefikleri ad\u0131na s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez bir boyuta ula\u015fmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak \u0130ran konvansiyonel sava\u015fta a\u011f\u0131r bir yara alm\u0131\u015f olsa da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 strateji sayesinde g\u00fc\u00e7 asimetrisini dengelemektedir. Sava\u015f\u0131n yo\u011funlu\u011funun artaca\u011f\u0131 hatta topyek\u00fbn bir y\u0131k\u0131ma d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde tehditler ortada gezerken ABD\u2019nin ate\u015fkes ve de-eskalasyon (gerilimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme) tercihine y\u00f6nelmesi, a\u00e7\u0131k ve net bir jeopolitik ger\u00e7ekli\u011fin sonucudur. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz’\u00fcn kapal\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 her g\u00fcn, Amerikan dolar\u0131n\u0131n ve k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlerinin temelleri sars\u0131lmakta, ba\u015fta K\u00f6rfez\u2019in Arap monar\u015fileri olmak \u00fczere yer k\u00fcrenin her bir noktas\u0131ndaki ABD m\u00fcttefikleri \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bu \u201cstratejik bo\u011fma\u201d hamlesinden zarar g\u00f6rmektedir.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kozunun kullan\u0131lmas\u0131, Washington’u masaya oturmaya ve askeri bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yerine stat\u00fckoyu koruyacak ya da yeni bir stat\u00fcko in\u015fa edecek diplomatik form\u00fcllere -hepsinden \u00f6nce bir ate\u015fkes rejimine- mecbur b\u0131rak\u0131yor. T\u00fcm d\u00fcnya \u015funu g\u00f6rd\u00fc ki H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131rganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n stratejik esnekli\u011fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc pranga gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Taraflar\u0131n masaya oturmas\u0131n\u0131n anahtar\u0131 oldu\u011fu gibi, sava\u015f sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7i\u015f rejimine dair nas\u0131l bir stat\u00fcko in\u015fa edilece\u011fi tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131, bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n da \u00f6n\u00fcndeki en \u00f6nemli engeldir.<\/p>\n
[Dr. Yusuf Bahad\u0131r Keskin, Amasya \u00dcniversitesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesidir.]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n gerilimi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n maliyetlerini co\u011frafi s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00f6tesine ta\u015f\u0131yarak k\u00fcresel ekonomide y\u00f6netilemez krizler do\u011furma tehdidi \u00fcretiyor ve tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n bu ba\u011flamda ilerlemesine yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10187,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[573],"class_list":["post-18729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiz","tag-hurmuzbogazi"],"yoast_head":"\n