Ankara Sosyal Bilimler \u00dcniversitesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Prof. Dr. Elem Eyrice Tepeciklio\u011flu, Cibuti ve Benin\u2019de ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen se\u00e7imlerin Afrika k\u0131tas\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ne ifade etti\u011fini analiz i\u00e7in kaleme ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
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Do\u011fu Afrika \u00fclkesi Cibuti 10 Nisan, Bat\u0131 Afrika\u2019da yer alan Benin ise 12 Nisan\u2019da sand\u0131k ba\u015f\u0131na gitti. Uzun s\u00fcredir iktidarda olan Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 \u0130smail Omar Guelleh, muhalefet partilerinin \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun boykot etti\u011fi se\u00e7imlerde parlamentoda dahi temsil edilmeyen Birle\u015fik Demokratik Merkez Partisinin aday\u0131 Mohamed Farah Samatar\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 yar\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve oylar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 98\u2019ini alarak yeniden se\u00e7ildi. Se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131, \u00fclkenin stratejik konumu nedeniyle K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019in g\u00fcvenli\u011fi i\u00e7in de kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan Benin, \u00fclkedeki g\u00fcvenlik durumunun giderek k\u00f6t\u00fcye gitti\u011fi ve muhalefete y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131lar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, ocak ay\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen parlamento se\u00e7imlerinin ard\u0131ndan bu sefer yeni bir cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 se\u00e7mek \u00fczere se\u00e7imlere gitti. Mevcut Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Patrice Talon\u2019un \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in aday olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, siyasi ge\u00e7i\u015f i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fme olarak de\u011ferlendirilirken halefi belirledi\u011fi Romuald Wadagni\u2019nin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda muhalefetin tek aday\u0131 ise Paul Hounkpe oldu.<\/p>\n
Cibuti Parlamentosu, 2010’da 77 ya\u015f\u0131ndaki Guelleh’in iki d\u00f6nemlik g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresinin sonuna yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015fken cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nem s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren anayasa de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini kabul etti. Ekim 2025’te de Guelleh\u2019in be\u015finci d\u00f6nemi bitmek \u00fczereyken cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 adaylar\u0131 i\u00e7in 75 olan anayasal ya\u015f s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 kald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Bu de\u011fi\u015fiklik, Guelleh\u2019in alt\u0131nc\u0131 d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in aday olmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7arken iktidardaki \u0130lerleme i\u00e7in Halk\u0131n Partisi, s\u00f6z konusu ad\u0131m\u0131 istikrars\u0131z ve s\u00fcrekli kaosa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenen bir b\u00f6lgede istikrar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hayati bir ad\u0131m olarak savundu. Cibuti\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131m as\u0131rd\u0131r ayn\u0131 aile taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6netilmesi ise Afrika \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda istisnai bir durum de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n
N\u00fcfusu yakla\u015f\u0131k bir milyon olan k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ancak stratejik konumdaki Cibuti, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019in giri\u015finde yer almakta olup Fransa\u2019n\u0131n Afrika\u2019daki en b\u00fcy\u00fck askeri \u00fcss\u00fc, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki tek askeri \u00fcss\u00fc ve ABD\u2019nin Afrika\u2019daki tek kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00fcss\u00fc Camp Lemonier\u2019in yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u0130talya ve \u00c7in\u2019e ait askeri \u00fcslere de ev sahipli\u011fi yapmaktad\u0131r. \u00d6te yandan 2025’te Tadjourah Liman\u0131’n\u0131n i\u015fletilmesi hususunda Cibuti ile 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k anla\u015fma imzalayan Suudi Arabistan da \u00fclkede \u00fcs a\u00e7may\u0131 planl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Aden K\u00f6rfezi ile K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz aras\u0131ndaki Babu’l Mendeb Bo\u011faz\u0131’na hakimiyeti, Cibuti\u2019ye benzersiz bir jeopolitik \u00f6nem kazand\u0131r\u0131yor. Cibuti\u2019nin bu stratejik konumu, bir zamanlar Somali a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131nda korsanl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen m\u00fccadelede \u00fcstlendi\u011fi rol ve Somali\u2019nin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Yemen\u2019de y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen ter\u00f6r operasyonlar\u0131nda bu \u00fcslerin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi fakt\u00f6rlerle birlikte, \u00fclkeye y\u00f6nelik uluslararas\u0131 ele\u015ftirilerin etkisini k\u0131smen s\u0131n\u0131rlamaktad\u0131r. Bu ba\u011flamda siyasi elitlerin, s\u00f6z konusu jeostratejik avantajlar\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndaki rekabeti kendi iktidarlar\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirmek amac\u0131yla ara\u00e7salla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n
\u00dclkede \u00f6nemli \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 bulunan k\u00fcresel akt\u00f6rler, Cibuti se\u00e7imlerini demokratik rekabetten ve rejim de\u011fi\u015fiminin gereklili\u011fi hususundan \u00e7ok, s\u00fcrekli \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara sahne olan de\u011fi\u015fken bir b\u00f6lgesel ba\u011flamda istikrar\u0131n devam\u0131 merce\u011finden okuyor.<\/p>\n
Benin\u2019de ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imleri, Aral\u0131k 2025’te Yarbay Pascal Tigri liderli\u011findeki bir grup askerin, DEA\u015e ve El Kaide ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctlerinin sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle \u00fclkenin kuzey s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131ndaki g\u00fcvenlik durumunun k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fti\u011fini ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetin bu tehdide yeterince etkili yan\u0131t veremedi\u011fini ileri s\u00fcrerek bir darbe giri\u015fiminde bulundu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu g\u00fcvenlik tehditlerinin cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7im kampanyas\u0131na da damgas\u0131n\u0131 vurdu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 darbelerin Afrika \u00fclkelerinde s\u0131kl\u0131kla ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair genel e\u011filim dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Sahel\u2019de g\u00f6zlenen “darbe salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n” kom\u015fu \u00fclkelere yay\u0131labilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki risk alg\u0131s\u0131 daha da g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Zira Mali, Burkina Faso ve Nijer\u2019de askeri y\u00f6netimlerin iktidara gelmesiyle \u015fekillenen bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, art\u0131k k\u0131y\u0131 \u00fclkelerine do\u011fru geni\u015fleyen bir g\u00fcvenlik ve rejim krizi olarak okunuyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Benin, uzun s\u00fcre Afrika\u2019n\u0131n model demokrasilerinden biri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesine ra\u011fmen artan g\u00fcvenlik tehditleri, siyasi bask\u0131lar ve darbe giri\u015fimiyle birlikte bu stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc kaybetme riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle Benin\u2019deki se\u00e7imler, sadece \u00fclkede demokrasinin gelece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011fil t\u00fcm Bat\u0131 Afrika b\u00f6lgesindeki demokratik gerileme ve g\u00fcvenlik dinamikleri bak\u0131m\u0131ndan da \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. G\u00f6zlemciler ve k\u0131ta d\u0131\u015f\u0131 akt\u00f6rler, se\u00e7imleri yaln\u0131zca ulusal bir siyasi s\u00fcre\u00e7 de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda Sahel\u2019de ba\u015flayan darbe dalgas\u0131n\u0131n Gine Bissau\u2019da ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinin ard\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen darbeyle birlikte k\u0131y\u0131 Bat\u0131 Afrika\u2019ya yay\u0131l\u0131p yay\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 test eden bir e\u015fik olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lan anayasal de\u011fi\u015fiklikle cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresinin 5 y\u0131ldan 7 y\u0131la uzat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkede muhalefet partilerinin parlamentoya girmesine y\u00f6nelik e\u015fikler daha da y\u00fckseltilmi\u015f, ter\u00f6r su\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 yarg\u0131lamak i\u00e7in kurulan \u00f6zel mahkeme, muhalifler i\u00e7in de kullan\u0131lmaya ba\u015flanm\u0131\u015f ve se\u00e7im yasas\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fikliklerle muhalefetin meclisteki temsili \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u0131n\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00dclkenin en b\u00fcy\u00fck muhalefet partisi Les Democrates\u2019in lideri Renaud Agbodjo ise teknik gerek\u00e7elerle yar\u0131\u015f d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda b\u0131rak\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu iki \u00fclke deneyimi birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, Afrika\u2019da demokratik y\u00f6nelimin giderek k\u0131r\u0131lganla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bir yanda istikrar gerek\u00e7esiyle uzun s\u00fcreli iktidarlar\u0131n ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 rekabetin me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 Cibuti \u00f6rne\u011fi, di\u011fer yanda g\u00fcvenlik tehditleri ve siyasi bask\u0131lar alt\u0131nda demokratik kurumlar\u0131n a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 Benin vakas\u0131 yer al\u0131yor. Bu durum, Afrika\u2019da se\u00e7imlerin \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ger\u00e7ek bir demokratik rekabetten ziyade ya mevcut rejimlerin me\u015fruiyetini peki\u015ftiren g\u00f6stermelik s\u00fcre\u00e7lere d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ya da g\u00fcvenlik krizleri ve darbelerle kesintiye u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Nitekim stratejik \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011fu durumlarda k\u00fcresel akt\u00f6rlerin demokratik gerilemelere y\u00f6nelik ele\u015ftirilerinin \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ikinci plana itildi\u011fi, istikrar ve jeopolitik \u00f6nceliklerin belirleyici hale geldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
[Prof. Dr. Elem Eyrice Tepeciklio\u011flu, Ankara Sosyal Bilimler \u00dcniversitesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi’dir.]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Cibuti ve Benin’de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen se\u00e7imler, k\u0131tada demokrasinin y\u00f6nelimi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde siyasi istikrar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesine ili\u015fkin risk ve f\u0131rsatlarla k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7lerin bu s\u00fcre\u00e7leri nas\u0131l okudu\u011fu konusunda \u00f6nemli ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":18727,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[6586],"class_list":["post-18726","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiz","tag-cibuti"],"yoast_head":"\n