Gr\u00f6nland tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, teknik olarak bir egemenlik meselesi; politik olarak ise Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik mimarisinin ger\u00e7ek bir \u201cstres testi\u201d. AB, onlarca y\u0131ld\u0131r kendini hukuk, normlar ve dayan\u0131\u015fma diliyle tarif ediyor. Ne var ki bu dil, sert g\u00fc\u00e7 gerektiren anlarda \u00e7o\u011fu kez bir \u201ckapak\u201d i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor: Avrupa, g\u00fcvenli\u011fi uzun s\u00fcre ABD \u015femsiyesi alt\u0131nda ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 se\u00e7ti; bu tercih refah \u00fcretti ama stratejik kas eritti. Bug\u00fcn Gr\u00f6nland dosyas\u0131, bu kas kayb\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Gr\u00f6nland, Danimarka Krall\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019na ba\u011fl\u0131 yar\u0131 \u00f6zerk bir b\u00f6lge. Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalsa da, Avrupa g\u00fcvenli\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Kuzey Kutbu\/Atlantik hatt\u0131n\u0131n \u201ckilit halkas\u0131\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Son g\u00fcnlerde g\u00fcndemi belirleyen tart\u0131\u015fma, Trump\u2019\u0131n Gr\u00f6nland\u2019\u0131n ABD kontrol\u00fcne girmesi gerekti\u011fini yeniden dillendirmesi ve bunun i\u00e7in tarifeler gibi ekonomik ara\u00e7lar\u0131 da devreye sokabilece\u011fini ima etmesiyle ivme kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu gerilim, yaln\u0131zca bir \u201cegemenlik\u201d tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 de\u011fil; ayn\u0131 zamanda Avrupa savunmas\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131sal s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr k\u0131lan bir stres testi.<\/p>\n
1945 sonras\u0131 tercih: Refah kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00fcvenli\u011fi d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya devretmek<\/strong><\/p>\n Sava\u015f sonras\u0131 Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n temel d\u00fczeni \u015fuydu: i\u00e7eride kalk\u0131nma ve sosyal devlet; d\u0131\u015far\u0131da ABD\u2019nin liderli\u011finde bir g\u00fcvenlik mimarisi. NATO, bu mimarinin kurumsal \u00e7at\u0131s\u0131 oldu. Avrupa, y\u00fcksek savunma maliyetlerine katlanmadan istikrar sat\u0131n ald\u0131. Fakat bu modelin bir yan etkisi vard\u0131: Avrupa \u00fclkeleri savunmay\u0131 sadece \u201charcama kalemi\u201d de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda kabiliyet \u00fcretimi<\/strong> olarak da ihmal etti. Stratejik nakliye, istihbarat-g\u00f6zetleme, hava ikmali, entegre f\u00fcze savunmas\u0131, y\u00fcksek yo\u011funluklu muharebe lojisti\u011fi gibi alanlar ABD\u2019ye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n Bu ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k, \u201cd\u0131\u015far\u0131dan gelen sald\u0131rgan\u201d senaryolar\u0131nda bile Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlarken, Gr\u00f6nland gibi bir dosyada \u00e7ok daha kritik hale geliyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcten dinamik, m\u00fcttefikin m\u00fcttefike bask\u0131 kurmas\u0131 ihtimali.<\/p>\n NATO ger\u00e7e\u011fi: 5. Madde garanti de\u011fil, siyasal manevra alan\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n NATO\u2019nun 5. Maddesi kamuoyunda \u00e7o\u011fu zaman \u201cotomatik askeri m\u00fcdahale\u201d gibi alg\u0131lan\u0131r; oysa metin, her m\u00fcttefike \u201cgerekli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u015fekilde\u201d hareket etme esnekli\u011fi tan\u0131r. Bu esneklik, ittifak\u0131 d\u0131\u015f tehditler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bir arada tutar; ancak kriz, ABD\u2019nin bir m\u00fcttefike bask\u0131 kurdu\u011fu bir senaryoya evrilirse ayn\u0131 esneklik, NATO\u2019nun refleks \u00fcretmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n Buna g\u00fc\u00e7 da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 da eklenir: NATO\u2019nun siyasi ve mali a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k merkezi ABD\u2019de topland\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde, ittifak dili pratikte hiyerar\u015fik bir yap\u0131ya yakla\u015f\u0131r. Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n \u201cNATO \u015femsiyesi\u201d diye g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u015fey, ABD ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelindi\u011finde bir kalkan olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n AB\u2019nin vaadi: Dayan\u0131\u015fma \u00e7ok, sert g\u00fc\u00e7 az<\/strong><\/p>\n AB\u2019nin kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 yard\u0131m maddesi 42(7), \u201cyard\u0131m ve destek\u201d y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden s\u00f6z eder; ancak bunun niteli\u011fini\u2014askeri mi, ekonomik mi, siyasi mi\u2014bilin\u00e7li bi\u00e7imde a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rak\u0131r. Gr\u00f6nland\u2019\u0131n AB d\u0131\u015f\u0131 stat\u00fcs\u00fc, bu gri alan\u0131 daha da b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcr. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla AB\u2019nin kriz an\u0131nda \u00fcretece\u011fi en ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir siyasi pozisyon ve ekonomik-diplomatik hamlelerdir; fakat bunlar, ABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 askeri cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k anlam\u0131na gelmez.<\/p>\n Burada AB\u2019nin ikiy\u00fczl\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirginle\u015fir: Avrupa, uluslararas\u0131 krizlerde \u201cegemenlik\u201d ve \u201chukuk\u201d vurgusunu y\u00fckseltir; ama ayn\u0131 egemenlik ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kendi \u00fczerinde s\u0131nand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, askeri kapasite eksikli\u011fi nedeniyle s\u00f6ylem ile eylem aras\u0131ndaki mesafe a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r. \u201cDe\u011ferler\u201d dili, \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7\u201d dilini ikame edemez.<\/p>\n Danimarka\u2019n\u0131n yaln\u0131z kalaca\u011f\u0131 sonu\u00e7 neden \u2018net\u2019 bir ihtimal de\u011fil, fiili ger\u00e7ek?<\/strong><\/p>\n Bu dosyada kritik nokta \u015fu: Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n Danimarka\u2019n\u0131n yan\u0131nda saf tutmamas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni \u201cDanimarka\u2019ya destek vermemesi\u201d de\u011fil; destek verebilse bile bunun askeri anlamda<\/strong> bir blokla\u015fmaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmeyecek olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Avrupa \u00fclkelerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc, ABD ile a\u00e7\u0131k bir bilek g\u00fcre\u015finin maliyetini \u00fcstlenmek istemez. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD ile \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riski sadece g\u00fcvenlik alan\u0131nda de\u011fil; ticaret, teknoloji, enerji ve savunma sanayii tedarik zincirlerinde de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir bedel \u00fcretir. Ba\u015fkentlerin refleksi bu nedenle \u201ckrizi b\u00fcy\u00fctmeme\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n Bu tablo, sert bir c\u00fcmleyle \u015f\u00f6yle \u00f6zetlenebilir: Danimarka, sahada yaln\u0131z kalacakt\u0131r.<\/strong> Bu yaln\u0131zl\u0131k, hukuki metinlerin bo\u015flu\u011fundan ziyade g\u00fc\u00e7 asimetrisinden do\u011far: NATO\u2019nun esnekli\u011fi \u00fclkeleri sorumluluktan ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131r; AB\u2019nin kapasite a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 da cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t \u00fczerinde b\u0131rak\u0131r. Sonu\u00e7, y\u00fcksek sesli dayan\u0131\u015fma s\u00f6ylemi ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n birle\u015fmesidir.<\/p>\n \u0130ngiltere ve NATO kanal\u0131: Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n par\u00e7al\u0131 refleksi<\/strong><\/p>\n Brexit sonras\u0131 \u0130ngiltere AB\u2019nin savunma mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n par\u00e7as\u0131 de\u011fil; hareket alan\u0131 NATO ve ikili d\u00fczenekler. Bu da Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ortak bir \u201cAB refleksi\u201d \u00fcretmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken, dosyay\u0131 yeniden NATO \u00e7er\u00e7evesine\u2014dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ABD\u2019nin merkezde oldu\u011fu zemine\u2014\u00e7ekiyor. Par\u00e7al\u0131 mimari, Danimarka\u2019n\u0131n yaln\u0131z kalma ihtimalini azaltm\u0131yor; tersine, ortak tutum \u00fcretmeyi daha da zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131: Stratejik \u00f6zerkli\u011fin dolayl\u0131 itiraf\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Avrupa\u2019da zaman zaman y\u00fckselen \u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ihtiya\u00e7\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesi, AB\u2019nin sert g\u00fc\u00e7 aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bir yans\u0131mas\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin NATO i\u00e7indeki askeri kapasitesi ve jeostratejik konumu bu t\u00fcr krizlerde \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor. Ancak bu \u201cihtiya\u00e7\u201d, AB hukukunun sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir g\u00fcvenlik \u015femsiyesi de\u011fil; NATO i\u00e7i pragmatizmin dayatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k. Avrupa, ABD\u2019ye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltmak isterken ayn\u0131 mimarinin i\u00e7inde ba\u015fka g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc askeri akt\u00f6rlere daha \u00e7ok ihtiya\u00e7 duyar hale geliyor. Bu, \u201cstratejik \u00f6zerklik\u201d iddias\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 tamamlanmam\u0131\u015f bir proje oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n Sonu\u00e7: Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik masal\u0131 bitiyor<\/strong><\/p>\n Gr\u00f6nland krizi, Avrupa\u2019ya \u015funu hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor: G\u00fcvenlik, deklarasyonla ta\u015f\u0131nmaz. 1945 sonras\u0131 ABD\u2019ye devredilen g\u00fcvenlik doktrini, Avrupa\u2019ya uzun s\u00fcre refah ve istikrar sa\u011flad\u0131; ama ayn\u0131 anda kendi kapasitesini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Bug\u00fcn AB, egemenlik ve hukuk s\u00f6ylemini y\u00fckseltebilir; fakat bu s\u00f6ylemin arkas\u0131n\u0131 dolduracak askeri irade ve kabiliyet \u00fcretmekte zorlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Ve bu y\u00fczden, kriz \u201cABD ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelme\u201d e\u015fi\u011fine yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Danimarka\u2019n\u0131n yan\u0131nda kimse durmayacak<\/strong>: Avrupa ba\u015fkentleri sembolik destekle yetinecek, as\u0131l hedef Washington\u2019la k\u00f6pr\u00fcleri atmadan krizi y\u00f6netmek olacak. Gr\u00f6nland dosyas\u0131, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik mimarisinde \u201cdayan\u0131\u015fma beyan\u0131\u201d ile \u201ccayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k\u201d aras\u0131ndaki u\u00e7urumun art\u0131k gizlenemedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Gr\u00f6nland \u00fczerinden b\u00fcy\u00fcyen gerilim, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda ABD\u2019ye devretti\u011fi g\u00fcvenlik doktrininin bug\u00fcn nas\u0131l bir stratejik a\u00e7maza d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. NATO\u2019nun \u201cotomatik m\u00fcdahale\u201d \u00fcretmeyen esnekli\u011fi ve AB\u2019nin sert g\u00fc\u00e7 kapasitesindeki yap\u0131sal zay\u0131fl\u0131k, kriz an\u0131nda Danimarka\u2019n\u0131n yan\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr bir askeri blok olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 fiilen imk\u00e2ns\u0131z k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1640,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1639","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiz"],"yoast_head":"\n
\nYan\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclecek olan, en iyi ihtimalle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve sembolik \u201cbirlik mesajlar\u0131\u201dd\u0131r; bu mesajlar ABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ek bir askeri denge kurmaz. Kriz s\u0131cakla\u015f\u0131rsa Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 askeri de\u011fil, diplomatik kanalda hissedilir; bu da Danimarka\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik anlam\u0131nda \u201carkas\u0131nda durulan\u201d de\u011fil, \u201cyaln\u0131z b\u0131rak\u0131lan\u201d akt\u00f6re d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi demektir.<\/p>\n