A\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Ortalama Fonlama Maliyeti\u2019ne (AOFM\/WAFC)<\/strong> odaklan\u0131ld\u0131. Metinde, AOFM\u2019nin; gecelik bor\u00e7 verme, repo ihaleleri ve swap i\u015flemleri gibi farkl\u0131 ara\u00e7lar \u00fczerinden sa\u011flanan fonlaman\u0131n maliyetini yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bu y\u00fczden man\u015fet faiz oran\u0131ndan daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir g\u00f6sterge sundu\u011fu ifade edildi.<\/p>\n\u00c7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n temel iddias\u0131 ne?<\/h2>\n
Ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n ana tezi \u015fu: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek duru\u015fu, yaln\u0131zca politika faizine bak\u0131larak tam olarak anla\u015f\u0131lam\u0131yor. Bunun yerine, finansal piyasadaki \u00e7ok say\u0131da faizi, fark\u0131 ve beklenti unsurunu birlikte de\u011ferlendiren bile\u015fik g\u00f6stergeler daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 sonu\u00e7 veriyor. Bu ama\u00e7la \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, iki ayr\u0131 faiz g\u00f6stergesi geli\u015ftirdi. Bunlardan ilki geni\u015f veri setine dayanan ve piyasa beklentilerini de i\u00e7ine alan daha kapsaml\u0131 bir \u201cproxy rate\u201d, ikincisi ise yaln\u0131zca k\u0131sa vadeli de\u011fi\u015fkenleri esas alan ve mevcut ko\u015fullar\u0131 daha yak\u0131ndan izleyen \u201cproxy short rate\u201d oldu.<\/p>\n
Bu iki g\u00f6stergenin birlikte okunmas\u0131yla, bir yandan mevcut para politikas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar s\u0131k\u0131 veya gev\u015fek oldu\u011fu, di\u011fer yandan piyasalar\u0131n gelecek d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin ne bekledi\u011fi ayn\u0131 anda g\u00f6r\u00fclebiliyor. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma, bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye gibi hem d\u00fczenleyici m\u00fcdahalelerin hem beklenti kanallar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu ekonomilerde daha i\u015flevsel oldu\u011funu savunuyor.<\/p>\n
Hangi d\u00f6nem incelendi?<\/h2>\n
Ara\u015ft\u0131rmada \u015eubat 2005-Nisan 2025 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan geni\u015f bir veri seti kullan\u0131ld\u0131. Ancak modelin katsay\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 kurmak ve daha istikrarl\u0131 bir temel olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in \u015eubat 2005-Aral\u0131k 2017 d\u00f6nemi \u201ctahmin penceresi\u201d olarak se\u00e7ildi. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada bunun gerek\u00e7esi a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya kondu: 2018 sonras\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de politika rejimi, d\u00fczenlemeler ve ara\u00e7 seti \u00f6nemli bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi i\u00e7in, daha istikrarl\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem \u00fczerinden temel ili\u015fkiyi kurmak istediler. Daha sonra bu yap\u0131 sabit tutularak model t\u00fcm veri setine, yani 2025 Nisan\u2019\u0131na kadar uyguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu tercih, ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n sadece ge\u00e7mi\u015fi tarif etmekle kalmay\u0131p, ayn\u0131 zamanda tarihsel olarak kurulmu\u015f bir ili\u015fki seti \u00fczerinden son y\u0131llardaki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7meye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ba\u015fka bir ifadeyle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, \u201ceskiden para politikas\u0131 nas\u0131l i\u015fliyordu, \u015fimdi bu yap\u0131ya g\u00f6re ne kadar farkl\u0131 davran\u0131yor\u201d sorusuna da yan\u0131t ar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de para politikas\u0131 neden tek faizle a\u00e7\u0131klanam\u0131yor?<\/h2>\n
Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, 2005 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemi alt\u0131 ayr\u0131 evrede ele al\u0131yor. Buna g\u00f6re ilk evrede likidite fazlas\u0131 ve taban sistem \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, ikinci evrede finansal istikrar hedefi enflasyon hedeflemesine daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr bi\u00e7imde eklendi. Sonraki a\u015famalarda faiz koridoru, ge\u00e7 likidite penceresi, operasyonel sadele\u015fme, swap a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 entegre politika, lirala\u015fma stratejisi ve 2023 ortas\u0131ndan itibaren parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ile normalle\u015fme evreleri birbirini izledi. Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, bu tarihsel seyri anlatarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de para politikas\u0131n\u0131n zamanla tek bir ara\u00e7tan uzakla\u015f\u0131p \u00e7ok katmanl\u0131 bir yap\u0131ya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zellikle 2021 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde lirala\u015fma stratejisi kapsam\u0131nda makroihtiyati ad\u0131mlar, menkul k\u0131ymet tesisi, teminat d\u00fczenlemeleri, kur korumal\u0131 mevduat, se\u00e7ici kredi politikalar\u0131 ve kamu kalk\u0131nma bankalar\u0131 \u00fczerinden desteklenen kredi mekanizmalar\u0131 gibi unsurlar\u0131n devreye girmesi; 2023 ortas\u0131ndan sonra ise politika faizinin 8,5\u2019ten 50\u2019ye y\u00fckseltilmesiyle birlikte niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ve sadele\u015fme ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n eklenmesi, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n neden b\u00f6yle bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm arac\u0131na ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011funu somutla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ara\u015ft\u0131rmada hangi veriler kullan\u0131ld\u0131?<\/h2>\n
\u00c7al\u0131\u015fma, toplam 24 finansal g\u00f6stergeyi ayn\u0131 anda kulland\u0131. Bu veri setinde k\u0131sa ve uzun vadeli tahvil getirileri, para piyasas\u0131 oranlar\u0131, 1, 3 ve 6 ayl\u0131k mevduat faizleri, t\u00fcketici, konut ve ticari kredi faizleri, farkl\u0131 faiz farklar\u0131, getiri e\u011frisinin e\u011fimi ve d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergeleri yer ald\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca kur piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin forward implied yield g\u00f6stergeleri de veri setine dahil edildi. Ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n amac\u0131, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n sadece tek bir piyasadaki etkisini de\u011fil, finansal sistemin farkl\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerindeki ortak hareketi yakalamakt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada \u00f6zellikle kredi piyasas\u0131 verilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiliyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lara g\u00f6re para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek etkisi ancak mevduat, tahvil, para piyasas\u0131 ve kredi oranlar\u0131 birlikte okundu\u011funda anla\u015f\u0131labilir. Bu nedenle veri seti dar bir vade veya tek bir finansal ara\u00e7 grubuyla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutulmad\u0131. B\u00f6ylece piyasalardaki k\u0131sa vadeli likidite ko\u015fullar\u0131 ile daha uzun vadeli beklentiler ayn\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evede izlenebildi.<\/p>\n
Nas\u0131l bir y\u00f6ntem izlendi?<\/h2>\n
Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, temel bile\u015fenler analizi yani PCA (Principal Component Analysis)<\/strong> y\u00f6ntemini kulland\u0131. Bu y\u00f6ntem, \u00e7ok say\u0131da finansal de\u011fi\u015fkendeki ortak hareketleri birka\u00e7 temel fakt\u00f6rde \u00f6zetlemeyi sa\u011fl\u0131yor. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada bu fakt\u00f6rler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra, bu fakt\u00f6rler AOFM ile regresyon yoluyla ili\u015fkilendirildi ve b\u00f6ylece para politikas\u0131n\u0131n duru\u015funu temsil eden iki ayr\u0131 g\u00f6sterge \u00fcretildi.<\/p>\nGeni\u015f veri seti i\u00e7in d\u00f6rt temel bile\u015fen, k\u0131sa vadeli veri seti i\u00e7in ise \u00fc\u00e7 temel bile\u015fen kullan\u0131ld\u0131. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re geni\u015f veri setinde ilk d\u00f6rt bile\u015fen toplam varyans\u0131n y\u00fczde 96,2\u2019sini, k\u0131sa vadeli veri setinde ilk \u00fc\u00e7 bile\u015fen ise y\u00fczde 98,3\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Bu oranlar, finansal ko\u015fullardaki ortak hareketin \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n bu \u00f6zet g\u00f6stergeler arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla yakalanabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Ayr\u0131ca geni\u015f veri setindeki ilk bile\u015fenin uzun vadeli tahvil getirileri, kredi ve mevduat faizleri \u00fczerinde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131; k\u0131sa vadeli veri setindeki ilk bile\u015fenin ise k\u0131sa vadeli faizler ve ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck k\u0131sa vadeli getiri g\u00f6stergeleriyle \u015fekillendi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ki yeni g\u00f6sterge neyi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcyor?<\/h2>\n
\u0130lk g\u00f6sterge olan proxy rate<\/strong>, 24 de\u011fi\u015fkenin tamam\u0131n\u0131 kullan\u0131yor. Bu y\u00fczden sadece mevcut para politikas\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil, uzun vadeli faizleri, beklentileri ve piyasan\u0131n gelece\u011fe ili\u015fkin fiyatlamalar\u0131n\u0131 da i\u00e7ine al\u0131yor. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re bu g\u00f6sterge, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cgeni\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evede\u201d nas\u0131l alg\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\u0130kinci g\u00f6sterge olan proxy short rate<\/strong> ise dokuz k\u0131sa vadeli de\u011fi\u015fkene dayan\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla daha \u00e7ok anl\u0131k likidite ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli para piyasas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ve mevcut uygulamalar\u0131n finansal piyasaya do\u011frudan yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 takip ediyor. Ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n diliyle s\u00f6ylersek, birinci g\u00f6sterge daha ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck ve beklenti a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131, ikinci g\u00f6sterge ise daha g\u00fcncel ve operasyonel.<\/p>\nBulgular ne s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor?<\/h2>\n
Ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n en \u00f6nemli bulgular\u0131ndan biri, iki g\u00f6stergenin de 2005-2017 d\u00f6neminde AOFM ile \u00e7ok yak\u0131n hareket etmesi oldu. Regresyon sonu\u00e7lar\u0131nda, geni\u015f g\u00f6sterge i\u00e7in d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f R-kare 0,97, k\u0131sa g\u00f6sterge i\u00e7in ise 0,98 olarak hesapland\u0131. Bu da geli\u015ftirilen g\u00f6stergelerin AOFM\u2019yi ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla fiili para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funu y\u00fcksek do\u011frulukla izleyebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Model sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re geni\u015f g\u00f6sterge i\u00e7in AOFM; PC1, PC2, PC3 ve PC4 bile\u015fenleriyle; k\u0131sa g\u00f6sterge i\u00e7in ise PC1, PC2 ve PC3 ile a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc e\u015fle\u015fmenin geli\u015ftirdikleri g\u00f6stergelerin sadece teorik de\u011fil, ampirik olarak da sa\u011flam oldu\u011funu savunuyor. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n temel bulgusu bu noktada netle\u015fiyor: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de para politikas\u0131n\u0131n etkisini anlamak i\u00e7in piyasa bazl\u0131, \u00e7ok de\u011fi\u015fkenli bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmler kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
2024\u2019te neden ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc?<\/h2>\n
Ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n belki de en dikkat \u00e7ekici b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc, 2017 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan ayr\u0131\u015fmalar. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmaya g\u00f6re iki g\u00f6sterge de tahmin d\u00f6neminde AOFM\u2019ye \u00e7ok yak\u0131n hareket ederken, sonraki y\u0131llarda \u00f6zellikle politika belirsizli\u011fi veya beklenti de\u011fi\u015fimlerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde farkl\u0131la\u015fmalar g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bunun en belirgin \u00f6rneklerinden biri 2024 y\u0131l\u0131. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmada, 2024\u2019te geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 proxy rate\u2019in g\u00f6zlenen AOFM\u2019nin alt\u0131na indi\u011fi ve bunun enflasyon beklentilerindeki iyile\u015fme ile piyasalarda olas\u0131 faiz indirimi beklentilerini yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k k\u0131sa vadeli proxy short rate, AOFM\u2019ye daha yak\u0131n seyretmeye devam ediyor. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma, bu fark\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu vurguluyor: \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc biri piyasan\u0131n gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck beklentilerini, di\u011feri ise mevcut fonlama ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylece ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde \u201c\u015fu anki\u201d para politikas\u0131 ile \u201cpiyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi\u201d para politikas\u0131 aras\u0131nda fark olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebiliyor. Ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n sundu\u011fu iki boyutlu okuma tam da burada devreye giriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7al\u0131\u015fma neden \u00f6nemli?<\/h2>\n
Bu ara\u015ft\u0131rma, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de para politikas\u0131n\u0131 izleyen ekonomistler, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ve politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in yeni bir okuma \u00e7er\u00e7evesi sunuyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, resmi politika faizinin tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde, finansal piyasalardan t\u00fcretilen g\u00f6stergeler \u00fczerinden daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir parasal duru\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc yap\u0131labilece\u011fini savunuyor. Bu \u00f6zellikle \u00e7ok ara\u00e7l\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde, yani makroihtiyati d\u00fczenlemelerin, kredi tedbirlerinin ve likidite kompozisyonunun \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 zamanlarda \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ara\u015ft\u0131rma ayn\u0131 zamanda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye \u00f6zg\u00fc kurumsal yap\u0131ya uyarlanm\u0131\u015f bir y\u00f6ntem \u00f6neriyor. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma, uluslararas\u0131 literat\u00fcrde \u00f6zellikle s\u0131f\u0131r alt s\u0131n\u0131r d\u00f6nemleri i\u00e7in geli\u015ftirilen \u201cshadow rate\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kendine has para politikas\u0131 mimarisine uyarl\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylece sadece T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in de\u011fil, benzer \u015fekilde \u00e7ok ara\u00e7l\u0131 ve d\u00fczenleme yo\u011fun geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomiler i\u00e7in de kullan\u0131labilecek esnek bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve \u00f6nerilmi\u015f oluyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n k\u0131sa anlam\u0131 ne?<\/h2>\n
K\u0131saca s\u00f6ylemek gerekirse, ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u201cpolitika faizi ne kadar\u201d sorusunun tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; \u201cpiyasa bunu nas\u0131l fiyatl\u0131yor, fonlama ger\u00e7ekte hangi maliyetle yap\u0131l\u0131yor ve beklentiler hangi y\u00f6ne gidiyor\u201d sorular\u0131n\u0131n da ayn\u0131 anda sorulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Yani \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n tabeladaki faizden de\u011fil, finansal sistemin b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcndeki etkiden okunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini savunuyor.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7<\/h2>\n
Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 31 Mart 2026 tarihli ara\u015ft\u0131rma notu, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek duru\u015funu \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in iki yeni g\u00f6sterge geli\u015ftirdi. 24 finansal de\u011fi\u015fkenden t\u00fcretilen bu g\u00f6stergelerden biri daha geni\u015f ve beklenti odakl\u0131, di\u011feri ise k\u0131sa vadeli ve mevcut ko\u015fullara duyarl\u0131 bir yap\u0131 sunuyor. Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, bu g\u00f6stergelerin AOFM ile y\u00fcksek uyum g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini, ancak son y\u0131llardaki ayr\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n da piyasa beklentileri ile fiili fonlama ko\u015fullar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131 anlamak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011ferli bilgiler sundu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor. En net mesaj ise \u015fu: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de para politikas\u0131n\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca politika faizine de\u011fil, \u00e7ok katmanl\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullara birlikte bakmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 31 Mart 2026 tarihli ara\u015ft\u0131rma notu, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n etkisini anlamak i\u00e7in sadece politika faizine bakman\u0131n art\u0131k yeterli olmayabilece\u011fini ortaya koydu. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada, piyasa faizleri, tahvil getirileri, kredi ve mevduat oranlar\u0131 ile beklenti g\u00f6stergelerini birlikte kullanan iki yeni \u201cproxy\u201d faiz g\u00f6stergesi olu\u015fturuldu. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re bu iki g\u00f6sterge, \u00f6zellikle makroihtiyati tedbirlerin, farkl\u0131 fonlama ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ve piyasa beklentilerinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek duru\u015funu daha net okumaya imk\u00e2n veriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11970,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,5919],"tags":[5917,5900,96,434,5916],"class_list":["post-15637","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-surmanset","tag-beceriuyumu","tag-isgucupiyasasi","tag-istihdam","tag-merkezbankasi","tag-sektorlerarasigecis"],"yoast_head":"\n
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