{"id":15605,"date":"2026-03-31T10:57:27","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T07:57:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/?p=15605"},"modified":"2026-03-31T11:05:38","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T08:05:38","slug":"depremin-gorunmeyen-faturasi-isgucu-piyasasinda-kayip-iki-yil-surdu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/03\/31\/depremin-gorunmeyen-faturasi-isgucu-piyasasinda-kayip-iki-yil-surdu\/","title":{"rendered":"Depremin g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyen faturas\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda: Kay\u0131p iki y\u0131l s\u00fcrd\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"

TCMB\u2019den dikkat \u00e7eken deprem ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131<\/h2>\n

Okan Akarsu, Abdurrahman B. Aydemir, Muhammet Enes \u00c7\u0131rakl\u0131 ve Huzeyfe Torun imzal\u0131, Mart 2026 tarihli 26\/07 say\u0131l\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma tebli\u011fi, 2023 Kahramanmara\u015f depremlerinin T\u00fcrkiye i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 etkileri birey d\u00fczeyinde inceledi. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada firma finansal tablolar\u0131 ile i\u015fveren-\u00e7al\u0131\u015fan e\u015fle\u015ftirilmi\u015f idari veriler bir araya getirildi; \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar deprem \u00f6ncesi ve sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemi kapsayan 2020-2024 verileri \u00fczerinden takip edildi. Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, farklar\u0131n fark\u0131 y\u00f6ntemi ve olay \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 tasar\u0131m\u0131yla haz\u0131rland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re 6 \u015eubat depremleri, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir bozulma yaratmakla kalmad\u0131; istihdamdan kopu\u015f, gelir kayb\u0131 ve yer de\u011fi\u015ftirme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 iki y\u0131la yay\u0131lan bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te derinle\u015ftirdi. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma, b\u00f6lgesel toplam istihdamdaki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr toparlanman\u0131n, deprem \u00f6ncesinde b\u00f6lgede ya\u015fayan asli i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131 tam olarak yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015ften \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f artt\u0131, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 geriledi<\/h2>\n

Tebli\u011fin temel bulgular\u0131na g\u00f6re, depremden etkilenen \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlarda i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,4-2,5 y\u00fczde puan artt\u0131. Uzun s\u00fcreli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flardaki art\u0131\u015f 3 y\u00fczde puana ula\u015ft\u0131. \u0130ller aras\u0131 i\u015f ge\u00e7i\u015fleri yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,9-2 y\u00fczde puan y\u00fckselirken, y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,6 y\u00fczde puan geriledi.<\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, bu tablonun yaln\u0131zca i\u015f kayb\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, deprem sonras\u0131 istihdamda kalan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n da daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Buna g\u00f6re afet, hem istihdam\u0131 hem de gelir dinamiklerini ayn\u0131 anda zay\u0131flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130lk y\u0131l daha sert ge\u00e7ti, ikinci y\u0131lda etkiler s\u00fcrd\u00fc<\/h2>\n

Olay \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 bulgular\u0131na g\u00f6re deprem sonras\u0131 en sert bozulma ilk y\u0131l i\u00e7inde ya\u015fand\u0131. \u0130\u015ften \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f, uzun s\u00fcreli kopu\u015f ve \u00fccret bask\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6zellikle 2023\u2019te belirginle\u015fti. \u0130kinci y\u0131lda etkiler bir miktar zay\u0131flasa da tamamen ortadan kalkmad\u0131. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada, 2023 sonlar\u0131nda ge\u00e7ici istihdam desteklerinin sona ermesinin, kay\u0131plar\u0131n yeniden belirginle\u015fmesinde etkili olmu\u015f olabilece\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n

Bu y\u00f6n\u00fcyle ara\u015ft\u0131rma, afet sonras\u0131 toparlanman\u0131n otomatik ya da e\u015fit da\u011f\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; ilk \u015fok atlat\u0131lsa bile i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda uzun s\u00fcreli izler b\u0131rakabildi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n

En a\u011f\u0131r darbeyi k\u0131r\u0131lgan gruplar ald\u0131<\/h2>\n

\u00c7al\u0131\u015fmaya g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fccretli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar, daha az deneyimli i\u015f\u00e7iler ve kad\u0131nlar deprem sonras\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00e7ok daha sert kay\u0131plarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fccretliler ve deneyimi az olan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlarda i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek seyrederken, kad\u0131nlarda hem i\u015ften kopu\u015f hem de uzun s\u00fcreli i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc kayb\u0131 daha belirgin oldu. Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, bu gruplar\u0131n daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan i\u015flerde \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na, daha zay\u0131f i\u015f g\u00fcvencesine sahip oldu\u011funa ve yeniden istihdama eri\u015fimde daha b\u00fcy\u00fck engeller ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n

\u00dccret taraf\u0131nda da en sert kay\u0131plar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fccretliler ve kad\u0131nlarda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtildi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k en y\u00fcksek gelir grubundaki \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlarda \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki gerilemenin daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n

K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015fletmeler, bor\u00e7lu firmalar ve k\u0131rsal alanlar daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131<\/h2>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, depremin etkisinin yaln\u0131zca \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan profiline g\u00f6re de\u011fil, i\u015fletme yap\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re de farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve orta \u00f6l\u00e7ekli i\u015fletmelerde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f oranlar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck firmalara k\u0131yasla daha y\u00fcksek ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Benzer \u015fekilde bor\u00e7lulu\u011fu y\u00fcksek firmalarda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n hem istihdam hem de \u00fccret kay\u0131plar\u0131 daha sert oldu. K\u0131rsal b\u00f6lgelerdeki \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlarda ise i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndan kopu\u015f ve gelir bask\u0131s\u0131 kent merkezlerine g\u00f6re daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hissedildi.<\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lara g\u00f6re bu tablo, mali yap\u0131s\u0131 zay\u0131f firmalar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck afetler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n\u0131 korumakta daha fazla zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; k\u0131rsal alanlarda ise i\u015f olanaklar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle toparlanman\u0131n daha yava\u015f ilerledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck ayr\u0131\u015fma ya\u015fand\u0131<\/h2>\n

\u00c7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n en dikkat \u00e7ekici bulgular\u0131ndan biri de sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131 farkl\u0131la\u015fma oldu. Sanayi ve hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde hem i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar hem de \u00fccret kay\u0131plar\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde artt\u0131. Tar\u0131mda istihdam kayb\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de \u00fccretlerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131. \u0130n\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ise di\u011ferlerinden ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yeniden in\u015fa faaliyetlerinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc talebi nedeniyle in\u015faatta \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n pozitif seyretti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ayr\u0131ca bu sekt\u00f6rde iller aras\u0131 hareketlili\u011fin de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 saptand\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, sanayi ve hizmetlerdeki bozulman\u0131n tedarik zinciri hasar\u0131, altyap\u0131 y\u0131k\u0131m\u0131 ve yerel talep daralmas\u0131yla ili\u015fkili oldu\u011funu; in\u015faatta ise yeniden imar s\u00fcrecinin bir istihdam tamponu olu\u015fturdu\u011funu ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6lgesel toparlanma, bireysel kayb\u0131 gizledi<\/h2>\n

\u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan \u00f6nemli bir tespit de deprem b\u00f6lgesindeki toplam istihdam verileri ile deprem \u00f6ncesi b\u00f6lgede ya\u015fayan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7ek kay\u0131plar aras\u0131ndaki fark oldu. B\u00f6lgesel ortalamalara g\u00f6re istihdam, yeniden in\u015fa faaliyetleri ve destek programlar\u0131 sayesinde g\u00f6rece h\u0131zl\u0131 toparland\u0131. Ancak birey d\u00fczeyindeki sonu\u00e7lar, deprem \u00f6ncesi b\u00f6lgede ya\u015fayan \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u0131n i\u015f kayb\u0131, g\u00f6\u00e7 ve \u00fccret bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 iki y\u0131l boyunca ya\u015famaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenle ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, afet sonras\u0131 yaln\u0131zca b\u00f6lgesel ortalamalara bakman\u0131n yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 olabilece\u011fini; toparlanman\u0131n kimler \u00fczerinden ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011finin ayr\u0131ca incelenmesi gerekti\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Deprem \u015fiddeti artt\u0131k\u00e7a kay\u0131p da b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc<\/h2>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, yerel deprem \u015fiddeti y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki bozulman\u0131n da b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fiyle yap\u0131lan analizlerde, daha y\u00fcksek sars\u0131nt\u0131 \u015fiddetinin daha fazla i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6\u00e7 bask\u0131s\u0131 ve daha belirgin \u00fccret kayb\u0131yla ili\u015fkili oldu\u011fu tespit edildi. Bu bulgu, depremin i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisinin nedensel olarak daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde okunmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sundu.<\/p>\n

Kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n durumu daha a\u011f\u0131r olabilir<\/h2>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmada yaln\u0131zca kay\u0131tl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n incelendi\u011fi, kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n do\u011frudan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclemedi\u011fi de \u00f6zellikle vurguland\u0131. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmaya g\u00f6re deprem \u00f6ncesinde etkilenen b\u00f6lgede toplam istihdam\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 36\u2019s\u0131 kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131yd\u0131. Bu nedenle kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n, \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclebilen resmi tablonun da \u00f6tesinde olabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7: Fiziksel yeniden in\u015fa tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli de\u011fil<\/h2>\n

TCMB \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma tebli\u011fi, 6 \u015eubat depremlerinin ard\u0131ndan yaln\u0131zca konutlar\u0131n ve altyap\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fil, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma hayat\u0131n\u0131n da yeniden in\u015faya ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bulgular; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fccretliler, kad\u0131nlar, k\u0131rsal \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015fletme \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131 ve mali a\u00e7\u0131dan k\u0131r\u0131lgan firmalardaki i\u015f\u00e7ilerin afet sonras\u0131nda \u00e7ok daha uzun s\u00fcreli kay\u0131plar ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, afet sonras\u0131 politikalarda yaln\u0131zca fiziksel yeniden yap\u0131lanmaya de\u011fil; sosyal koruma, yeniden istihdam, gelir deste\u011fi ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan gruplara y\u00f6nelik hedefli programlara da \u00f6ncelik verilmesi gerekti\u011fini vurguluyor.<\/p>\n

Kaynak: merceknet.com<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

TCMB\u2019nin Mart 2026 tarihli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma tebli\u011fi, 6 \u015eubat 2023 Kahramanmara\u015f depremlerinin sadece binalar\u0131 de\u011fil, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma hayat\u0131n\u0131 da derinden sarst\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re depremden etkilenen \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlarda i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar artt\u0131, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yava\u015flad\u0131, iller aras\u0131 i\u015f ge\u00e7i\u015fleri h\u0131zland\u0131. En a\u011f\u0131r darbeyi ise kad\u0131nlar, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fccretliler, az deneyimli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015fletmelerde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar ve k\u0131rsal b\u00f6lgelerdeki emek\u00e7iler ald\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":15609,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[794,5900,96,5901,5902],"class_list":["post-15605","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiz","tag-6subatdepremleri","tag-isgucupiyasasi","tag-istihdam","tag-kahramanmarasdepremi","tag-ucretler"],"yoast_head":"\nDepremin g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyen faturas\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda: Kay\u0131p iki y\u0131l s\u00fcrd\u00fc - Merceknet Haber<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/03\/31\/depremin-gorunmeyen-faturasi-isgucu-piyasasinda-kayip-iki-yil-surdu\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Depremin g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyen faturas\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda: Kay\u0131p iki y\u0131l s\u00fcrd\u00fc - Merceknet Haber\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"TCMB\u2019nin Mart 2026 tarihli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma tebli\u011fi, 6 \u015eubat 2023 Kahramanmara\u015f depremlerinin sadece binalar\u0131 de\u011fil, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma hayat\u0131n\u0131 da derinden sarst\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu. 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