Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri\u2019nin, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump d\u00f6neminde Venezuela\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi ve \u201ctarihi\u201d olarak nitelendirilen operasyon, klasik bir d\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahale kal\u0131b\u0131na s\u0131\u011fmayacak kadar kapsaml\u0131 mesajlar bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu hamle, uluslararas\u0131 sistemin yaln\u0131zca bir kriz ya\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; yap\u0131sal olarak ba\u015fka bir evreye ge\u00e7ti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda in\u015fa edilen normatif d\u00fczen\u2014egemenlik, toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve uluslararas\u0131 hukukun ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2014pratikte zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f; uzun s\u00fcredir teorik d\u00fczeyde tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcn\u00fcn hukuku\u201d sahada kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k bulmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n
Venezuela bu a\u00e7\u0131dan tekil bir vaka de\u011fil; yeni k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 mimarisinin test alan\u0131d\u0131r. M\u00fcdahaleye kar\u015f\u0131 Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019in etkili bir cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k ortaya koyamamas\u0131, yaln\u0131zca asker\u00ee kapasiteyi de\u011fil, \u201cm\u00fcttefiki koruma iradesini\u201d de tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 h\u00e2le getirmi\u015ftir. B\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7 olman\u0131n, yaln\u0131zca g\u00fc\u00e7 biriktirmekten de\u011fil; kritik anlarda o g\u00fcc\u00fc sahaya s\u00fcrebilme kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bir kez daha ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Rusya ve \u00c7in: G\u00fc\u00e7 Var, Garanti Yok<\/strong><\/p>\n Venezuela krizi, Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019in \u201ck\u00fcresel g\u00fcvenlik sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131\u201d akt\u00f6rler olarak alg\u0131lanmas\u0131nda belirgin bir erozyon yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Moskova\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131na yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131 ve Pekin\u2019in do\u011frudan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan ka\u00e7\u0131nan stratejik sabr\u0131, Washington\u2019un hareket alan\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmi\u015ftir. B\u00f6ylece uzun s\u00fcredir dile getirilen \u201c\u00e7ok kutuplu d\u00fcnya\u201d s\u00f6yleminin pratikte ne kadar k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011fu daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr h\u00e2le gelmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n Avrupa Birli\u011fi ise bu denklemde ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir jeopolitik akt\u00f6r olmaktan ziyade, ABD\u2019nin stratejik \u00e7izgisi i\u00e7inde hareket eden bir yap\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc vermektedir. Ukrayna s\u00fcreciyle birlikte enerji, savunma ve g\u00fcvenlik alanlar\u0131nda Washington\u2019a daha fazla ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 h\u00e2le gelen AB, Venezuela dosyas\u0131nda da ayr\u0131\u015fan, risk alan bir pozisyon \u00fcretememi\u015ftir. Bu tablo, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n \u201cstratejik \u00f6zerklik\u201d iddias\u0131n\u0131n a\u011f\u0131r bir s\u0131navdan ge\u00e7ti\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n Geni\u015fleyen Hedef Haritas\u0131 ve \u00d6rt\u00fck Mutabakatlar<\/strong><\/p>\n Bu a\u015famadan sonra ABD\u2019nin hedef haritas\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesi s\u00fcrpriz olmayacakt\u0131r. \u0130ran, K\u00fcba ve hatta baz\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelere g\u00f6re Gr\u00f6nland gibi stratejik veya sembolik de\u011feri y\u00fcksek b\u00f6lgeler, Washington\u2019un yeni d\u00f6nem hesaplar\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. Ancak dikkat \u00e7ekici olan nokta \u015fudur: Bu t\u00fcr hamlelerin k\u00fcresel ve b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rlerle a\u00e7\u0131k ya da \u00f6rt\u00fck mutabakatlar olmadan s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi zor g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir.<\/p>\n Bu tablo, uluslararas\u0131 sistemin art\u0131k \u201ca\u00e7\u0131k ittifaklar\u201d d\u00f6neminden \u201csessiz mutabakatlar\u201d ve \u00f6rt\u00fck payla\u015f\u0131m alanlar\u0131 d\u00f6nemine ge\u00e7ti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcrmektedir. Yeni d\u00fczenin dili, resm\u00ee a\u00e7\u0131klamalardan \u00e7ok z\u0131mn\u00ee uzla\u015f\u0131larda kurulmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n Tayvan: Bir Sonraki K\u00fcresel K\u0131r\u0131lma Hatt\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Bu \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7 sonras\u0131 d\u00fczen\u201din en kritik ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131ndan biri ku\u015fkusuz \u00c7in\u2013Tayvan meselesidir. Venezuela\u2019da ya\u015fananlar, Pekin a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son derece \u00f6\u011fretici bir \u00f6rnek olarak kayda ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. Tayvan, \u00c7in i\u00e7in yaln\u0131zca jeopolitik bir alan de\u011fil; tarihsel, ideolojik ve rejimsel b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn sembol\u00fcd\u00fcr. Ne var ki Venezuela \u00f6rne\u011fi \u015fu mesaj\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde \u00fcretmi\u015ftir:<\/p>\n G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc s\u00f6ylem, sahada kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yoksa cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k \u00fcretmez.<\/strong><\/p>\n ABD\u2019nin Latin Amerika\u2019da bu denli rahat hareket edebilmesi, Tayvan konusunda da benzer bir stratejik cesareti besleyebilir. Washington\u2019un Tayvan\u2019\u0131 do\u011frudan savunmak yerine, krizi kontroll\u00fc bir t\u0131rmanma \u00fczerinden \u00c7in\u2019i uzun vadede y\u0131pratacak bir gerilim hatt\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmesi olas\u0131d\u0131r. B\u00f6yle bir senaryoda Tayvan\u2019\u0131n, Ukrayna benzeri bir \u201cuzat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f kriz alan\u0131\u201dna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fme riski b\u00fcy\u00fcr.<\/p>\n \u00c7in\u2019in Tayvan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 sert hamleleri ise yaln\u0131zca Asya-Pasifik\u2019i de\u011fil; G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019nden Kore Yar\u0131madas\u0131\u2019na, Japonya\u2019dan Avustralya\u2019ya uzanan geni\u015f bir g\u00fcvenlik ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131n\u0131 etkiler. Bu y\u00fczden Tayvan art\u0131k b\u00f6lgesel de\u011fil, k\u00fcresel sistemin kilit d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm noktalar\u0131ndan biridir.<\/p>\n Zincirleme Etki: Kriz Alanlar\u0131 Birbirine Ba\u011flan\u0131yor<\/strong><\/p>\n Venezuela, Ukrayna, Tayvan, Gr\u00f6nland, \u0130ran, K\u00fcba ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki k\u0131r\u0131lgan hatlar art\u0131k birbirinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z de\u011fil. Aksine, her bir kriz di\u011ferini me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131ran ve normalle\u015ftiren bir i\u015flev g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Uluslararas\u0131 sistem, krizleri \u00e7\u00f6zmekten \u00e7ok \u201cy\u00f6netilebilir kaos alanlar\u0131na\u201d d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrerek idare etmeyi tercih ediyor.<\/p>\n Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede liderlerin do\u011frudan hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131, rejimlerin zay\u0131flat\u0131lmas\u0131 ya da devletlerin i\u015flevsizle\u015ftirilmesi art\u0131k \u201cola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc\u201d senaryolar olarak alg\u0131lanm\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya, liderlerin dokunulmaz oldu\u011fu bir d\u00fczeni fiilen terk etmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n Yeni Tehdit Co\u011frafyalar\u0131: K\u00fcresel Gerilimin Geni\u015fleyen Haritas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Venezuela ve Tayvan merkezli geli\u015fmeler, k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelesinin yaln\u0131zca g\u00f6r\u00fcnen y\u00fcz\u00fcd\u00fcr. As\u0131l dikkat \u00e7ekici olan, bu krizlerin \u00e7evresinde belirginle\u015fen \u201cikincil cepheler\u201din art\u0131k ikincil olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131d\u0131r. Afrika\u2019dan Gr\u00f6nland\u2019a, K\u00fcba\u2019dan \u0130ran\u2019a uzanan co\u011frafyalar, b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7 rekabetinin tamamlay\u0131c\u0131 unsurlar\u0131 h\u00e2line gelmektedir.<\/p>\n Afrika: Yeni B\u00fcy\u00fck Oyun\u2019un Sessiz Merkezi<\/strong><\/p>\n Afrika\u2019da rekabet yaln\u0131zca ekonomik de\u011fil; asker\u00ee ve siyasi varl\u0131k in\u015fas\u0131 \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fcmektedir. Enerji kaynaklar\u0131, kritik madenler ve gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfus, k\u0131tay\u0131 yeni k\u00fcresel ekonominin vazge\u00e7ilmez sahas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. \u00c7in\u2019in altyap\u0131 hamleleri, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik a\u011flar\u0131, ABD\u2019nin \u00fcsler ve istihbarat faaliyetleriyle konumlanmas\u0131; Afrika\u2019y\u0131 \u201ckontroll\u00fc istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k\u201d alan\u0131na \u00e7evirmi\u015ftir. Bu dinamikler, k\u0131tan\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde vek\u00e2let sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ve rejim k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131n\u0131n merkezi h\u00e2line gelme riskini art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n Gr\u00f6nland: Kutup Jeopoliti\u011finin Kilidi<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle birlikte a\u00e7\u0131lan yeni deniz yollar\u0131, enerji ve maden rezervleri, Arktik b\u00f6lgeyi k\u00fcresel rekabetin merkezine ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. ABD\u2019nin Gr\u00f6nland\u2019a artan ilgisi yaln\u0131zca asker\u00ee de\u011fil; stratejik derinlik aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sonucudur. Rusya ve \u00c7in a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da Arktik, yeni ticaret yollar\u0131 ve konu\u015flanmalar nedeniyle kritik bir sahaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmektedir.<\/p>\n K\u00fcba: So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n Geri D\u00f6nen Hayaleti<\/strong><\/p>\n Venezuela sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ABD\u2019nin Latin Amerika denkleminde K\u00fcba yeniden g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Washington a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan K\u00fcba, yaln\u0131zca ideolojik bir mesele de\u011fil; b\u00f6lgesel tahkimat\u0131n tamamlay\u0131c\u0131 unsurudur. K\u00fcba\u2019da ya\u015fanabilecek k\u0131r\u0131lmalar, Latin Amerika genelinde zincirleme etkiler \u00fcretebilir.<\/p>\n \u0130ran: \u00c7ok Cepheli Bask\u0131n\u0131n Odak Noktas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 bir asker\u00ee veya siyasi hamle, enerji piyasalar\u0131ndan Avrasya dengelerine kadar geni\u015f bir etki do\u011furacakt\u0131r. Bu nedenle \u0130ran, yaln\u0131zca Orta Do\u011fu\u2019nun de\u011fil; k\u00fcresel sistemin \u201cbas\u0131n\u00e7 noktalar\u0131ndan\u201d biridir. \u0130ran dosyas\u0131, Venezuela ve Tayvan gibi krizlerle do\u011frudan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 bir \u00e7er\u00e7evede okunmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n Zincirleme Krizler ve Yeni Barbarl\u0131k D\u00fczeni<\/strong><\/p>\n Bu co\u011frafyalar tek tek de\u011fil, birlikte okunmal\u0131d\u0131r. Yeni d\u00f6nemin barbarl\u0131\u011f\u0131, ilkel bir y\u0131k\u0131m de\u011fil; son derece rasyonel, planl\u0131 ve teknik bir g\u00fc\u00e7 kullan\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r. Bu d\u00fczenin temel karakteristi\u011fi \u015fudur:<\/p>\n Sava\u015f ilan edilmez; liderler hedef al\u0131n\u0131r. Enerji ve Madenler: Yeni Barbarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n Ger\u00e7ek Nedeni<\/strong><\/p>\n G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz k\u00fcresel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n merkezinde \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ideoloji de\u011fil; enerji ve kritik madenler bulunmaktad\u0131r. Venezuela, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol rezervlerinden birine sahip olmas\u0131 nedeniyle yaln\u0131zca siyasi bir hedef de\u011fil, enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi denkleminde stratejik bir d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcmd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n Benzer bi\u00e7imde:<\/p>\n Bu nedenle sava\u015flar art\u0131k do\u011frudan toprak kazanmak i\u00e7in de\u011fil; kaynak ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131, tedarik zincirlerini ve stratejik bo\u011fazlar\u0131 kontrol etmek<\/strong> i\u00e7in y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n Ekonomik ve Finansal Boyut: Silahs\u0131z Sava\u015f Alan\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Asker\u00ee operasyonlar yaln\u0131zca g\u00f6r\u00fcnen y\u00fczd\u00fcr. As\u0131l y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 olan, ekonomik ve finansal sava\u015f ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fmesidir: yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, finansal izolasyon, SWIFT gibi a\u011flardan d\u0131\u015flama, rezervlere el koyma, bor\u00e7lanma kanallar\u0131n\u0131 kapatma\u2026<\/p>\n Venezuela, \u0130ran ve Rusya \u00f6rnekleri \u015fu ger\u00e7e\u011fi g\u00f6steriyor: Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te:<\/p>\n Alternatif finans aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lense de k\u0131sa vadede ABD merkezli sistemi sarsacak \u00f6l\u00e7ekte sonu\u00e7 \u00fcretmekte zorlanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n Jeoekonomi: G\u00fcc\u00fcn Yeni Dili<\/strong><\/p>\n Yeni d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeninde jeopolitik tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli de\u011fil; yerini jeoekonomi al\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7 art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca asker\u00ee \u00fcsler \u00fczerinden de\u011fil;<\/p>\n Bu ba\u011flamda:<\/p>\n Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu b\u00f6lgelerde ya\u015fanacak her kriz, sadece siyasi de\u011fil; k\u00fcresel ekonomik sistem \u00fczerinde de sars\u0131c\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furacakt\u0131r. Krizlerin \u201ckontroll\u00fc ama bitmeyen\u201d bi\u00e7imde tutulmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni tam da budur.<\/p>\n Modern Roma ve Modern Mo\u011fol \u00c7a\u011f\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz d\u00f6nem, klasik imparatorluk d\u00fczenlerinin g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f bir bile\u015fimidir: Roma\u2019n\u0131n hukuku ask\u0131ya alan mutlak g\u00fc\u00e7 anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile Mo\u011follar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131r tan\u0131mayan \u015fiddeti; bug\u00fcn teknoloji, istihbarat, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ve alg\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131yla birle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Sava\u015f ilanlar\u0131 yerini \u201coperasyonlara\u201d, i\u015fgaller yerini \u201crejim m\u00fchendisli\u011fine\u201d b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n Barbarl\u0131k art\u0131k ilkel de\u011fil; rasyonel, teknik ve s\u00fcreklidir.<\/strong> Uluslararas\u0131 hukuk ise yaln\u0131zca g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olan\u0131n i\u015fine yarad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde hat\u0131rlanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n Sonu\u00e7: Yeni Ger\u00e7ekli\u011fe Haz\u0131rl\u0131k<\/strong><\/p>\n Bug\u00fcn Venezuela\u2019da ya\u015fananlar, yar\u0131n K\u00fcba\u2019da, Gr\u00f6nland\u2019da, Tayvan\u2019da, \u0130ran\u2019da ya da ba\u015fka bir k\u0131r\u0131lgan co\u011frafyada yeniden ya\u015fanabilir. As\u0131l mesele bunun ahlaki olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011fil; bu ger\u00e7ekli\u011fin do\u011fru okunup okunamad\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Yeni d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni ideallerle de\u011fil, g\u00fc\u00e7 ili\u015fkileriyle \u015fekillenmektedir.<\/p>\n Bu \u00e7a\u011fda ayakta kalmak, romantik uluslararas\u0131 hukuk metinlerine g\u00fcvenmekten \u00e7ok; g\u00fc\u00e7 dengelerini, \u00f6rt\u00fck mutabakatlar\u0131, enerji\u2013maden\u2013finans ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ve kriz zincirlerini do\u011fru analiz edebilme becerisine ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Deh\u015fet verici ama ink\u00e2r edilemez bir ger\u00e7eklik: D\u00fcnya, \u201cnormlar\u0131n\u201d de\u011fil \u201c\u00e7\u0131plak g\u00fc\u00e7\u201d\u00fcn diliyle konu\u015fmaya geri d\u00f6n\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Venezuela\u2019da ya\u015fanan \u201coperasyon\u201d bir \u00fclke krizinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor: Egemenlik ve hukukun geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fi, g\u00fc\u00e7 kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fti\u011fi yeni bir d\u00f6neme giriliyor. Bu yeni denklemde hedef yaln\u0131zca toprak de\u011fil; enerji, maden, finans ve tedarik zincirleri. Tayvan\u2019dan Afrika\u2019ya uzanan hat, \u201ckontroll\u00fc kaos\u201d stratejisinin kal\u0131c\u0131 jeopoliti\u011fine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":158,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-155","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiz"],"yoast_head":"\n
\nDevletler i\u015fgal edilmez; i\u015flevsizle\u015ftirilir.
\nHukuk tamamen yok edilmez; se\u00e7ici bi\u00e7imde ask\u0131ya al\u0131n\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n
\nk\u00fcresel sistemin maddi omurgas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturur.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\nDevletler art\u0131k i\u015fgal edilmeden de \u00e7\u00f6kertilebilmektedir.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n
\n
\n\u00fczerinden kuruluyor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n