{"id":1487,"date":"2026-01-16T10:51:40","date_gmt":"2026-01-16T07:51:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/?p=1487"},"modified":"2026-01-16T10:51:40","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T07:51:40","slug":"piyasa-2026-yil-sonu-enflasyon-beklentisini-yuzde-2323e-cekti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/01\/16\/piyasa-2026-yil-sonu-enflasyon-beklentisini-yuzde-2323e-cekti\/","title":{"rendered":"Piyasa, 2026 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisini y\u00fczde 23,23\u2019e \u00e7ekti"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) ocak ay\u0131 <em data-start=\"350\" data-end=\"379\">Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi<\/em> sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 yay\u0131mland\u0131. Reel sekt\u00f6r ve finansal sekt\u00f6rden olu\u015fan 72 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131yla 12\u201314 Ocak 2026 tarihlerinde yap\u0131lan ankette, enflasyon, faiz, d\u00f6viz kuru ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir g\u00fcncelleme dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"611\" data-end=\"651\">Y\u0131l sonu T\u00dcFE beklentisi y\u00fczde 23,23<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"653\" data-end=\"867\">Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n <strong data-start=\"668\" data-end=\"712\">2026 y\u0131l sonu t\u00fcketici enflasyonu (T\u00dcFE)<\/strong> beklentisi ocak anketinde <strong data-start=\"739\" data-end=\"754\">y\u00fczde 23,23<\/strong> oldu.<br data-start=\"760\" data-end=\"763\" \/>Bir \u00f6nceki anket d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re daha belirgin hareket ise ileri vadeli enflasyon beklentilerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"871\" data-end=\"951\"><strong data-start=\"871\" data-end=\"904\">12 ay sonras\u0131 T\u00dcFE beklentisi<\/strong> y\u00fczde 23,35\u2019ten <strong data-start=\"921\" data-end=\"939\">y\u00fczde 22,20\u2019ye<\/strong><\/li>\n<li data-start=\"954\" data-end=\"1032\"><strong data-start=\"954\" data-end=\"987\">24 ay sonras\u0131 T\u00dcFE beklentisi<\/strong> de y\u00fczde 17,45\u2019ten <strong data-start=\"1007\" data-end=\"1024\">y\u00fczde 16,94\u2019e<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1034\" data-end=\"1227\">Ankette, 12 ay sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131 enflasyonun <strong data-start=\"1106\" data-end=\"1130\">y\u00fczde 21\u201323 band\u0131nda<\/strong> ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, 24 ay sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k <strong data-start=\"1187\" data-end=\"1213\">y\u00fczde 16\u201318 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda<\/strong> yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1229\" data-end=\"1300\">Politika faizi beklentisi: Ocak\u2019ta y\u00fczde 36,5, y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 28<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1302\" data-end=\"1447\">Faiz cephesinde piyasa, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 kademeli ama belirgin bir \u015fekilde gev\u015fetece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentisini koruyor.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"1451\" data-end=\"1620\"><strong data-start=\"1451\" data-end=\"1531\">B\u0130ST Repo ve Ters-Repo Pazar\u0131\u2019nda cari ay sonu gecelik faiz oran\u0131 beklentisi<\/strong> bir \u00f6nceki ankette y\u00fczde 38,13 iken, ocak d\u00f6neminde <strong data-start=\"1584\" data-end=\"1599\">y\u00fczde 36,43<\/strong> olarak kaydedildi.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1623\" data-end=\"1745\"><strong data-start=\"1623\" data-end=\"1705\">Ocak ay\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in TCMB politika faizi beklentisi<\/strong> ise <strong data-start=\"1710\" data-end=\"1725\">y\u00fczde 36,50<\/strong> d\u00fczeyinde olu\u015ftu.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1747\" data-end=\"1825\">\u0130lerleyen d\u00f6nemlere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda politika faizi i\u00e7in \u015fu seviyeler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"1829\" data-end=\"1860\"><strong data-start=\"1829\" data-end=\"1845\">\u0130lk toplant\u0131<\/strong>: y\u00fczde 36,50<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1863\" data-end=\"1897\"><strong data-start=\"1863\" data-end=\"1882\">\u0130kinci toplant\u0131<\/strong>: y\u00fczde 35,11<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1900\" data-end=\"1934\"><strong data-start=\"1900\" data-end=\"1919\">\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc toplant\u0131<\/strong>: y\u00fczde 33,80<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1937\" data-end=\"1973\"><strong data-start=\"1937\" data-end=\"1954\">Cari y\u0131l sonu<\/strong>: <strong data-start=\"1956\" data-end=\"1971\">y\u00fczde 28,02<\/strong><\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1976\" data-end=\"2008\"><strong data-start=\"1976\" data-end=\"1993\">12 ay sonras\u0131<\/strong>: y\u00fczde 26,96<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2011\" data-end=\"2046\"><strong data-start=\"2011\" data-end=\"2031\">Gelecek y\u0131l sonu<\/strong>: y\u00fczde 21,12<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2049\" data-end=\"2081\"><strong data-start=\"2049\" data-end=\"2066\">24 ay sonras\u0131<\/strong>: y\u00fczde 20,03<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2083\" data-end=\"2246\">Bu tablo, piyasada faizlerin enflasyondaki kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle birlikte iki y\u0131ll\u0131k bir perspektifte <strong data-start=\"2180\" data-end=\"2219\">20\u2019li seviyelere do\u011fru gerileyece\u011fi<\/strong> beklentisini yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2248\" data-end=\"2289\">Dolar\/TL\u2019de y\u0131l sonu beklentisi 51,17<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2291\" data-end=\"2368\">Ankete g\u00f6re, kur taraf\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ama kontroll\u00fc bir patika \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"2372\" data-end=\"2454\"><strong data-start=\"2372\" data-end=\"2409\">Cari y\u0131l sonu dolar\/TL beklentisi<\/strong> ocak d\u00f6neminde <strong data-start=\"2425\" data-end=\"2434\">51,17<\/strong> olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2457\" data-end=\"2581\"><strong data-start=\"2457\" data-end=\"2494\">12 ay sonras\u0131 dolar\/TL beklentisi<\/strong> ise bir \u00f6nceki anket d\u00f6neminde 51,08 iken, bu ankette <strong data-start=\"2549\" data-end=\"2558\">51,89<\/strong> seviyesine y\u00fckseldi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2583\" data-end=\"2766\">Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kurda keskin s\u0131\u00e7ramalardan ziyade <strong data-start=\"2653\" data-end=\"2723\">enflasyon ve \u00fccret dinamikleriyle uyumlu, kademeli bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131<\/strong> senaryosunu fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2768\" data-end=\"2837\">B\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi de\u011fi\u015fmedi: 2026\u2019da y\u00fczde 3,9, 2027\u2019de y\u00fczde 4,3<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2839\" data-end=\"2913\">Ankette <strong data-start=\"2847\" data-end=\"2875\">GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri<\/strong> taraf\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir revizyon olmad\u0131:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"2917\" data-end=\"3007\"><strong data-start=\"2917\" data-end=\"2948\">2026 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi<\/strong> bir \u00f6nceki anketle ayn\u0131 kalarak <strong data-start=\"2981\" data-end=\"2994\">y\u00fczde 3,9<\/strong> d\u00fczeyinde.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3010\" data-end=\"3080\"><strong data-start=\"3010\" data-end=\"3041\">2027 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi<\/strong> ise <strong data-start=\"3046\" data-end=\"3059\">y\u00fczde 4,3<\/strong> olarak bildirildi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"3082\" data-end=\"3245\">Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na ra\u011fmen T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde <strong data-start=\"3155\" data-end=\"3211\">orta vadede y\u00fczde 4 civar\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme patikas\u0131n\u0131n<\/strong> m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"3247\" data-end=\"3312\">Enflasyon patikas\u0131: Belirsizlik s\u00fcrse de beklenti a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"3314\" data-end=\"3623\">TCMB\u2019nin yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 grafiklere g\u00f6re, piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi <strong data-start=\"3400\" data-end=\"3422\">enflasyon patikas\u0131<\/strong>, 2025\u2019te y\u00fcksek \u00e7ift haneli oranlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 2026\u2019da <strong data-start=\"3478\" data-end=\"3530\">20\u2019li seviyelerin alt\u0131na do\u011fru kademeli bir ini\u015f<\/strong>, 2027 sonras\u0131nda ise <strong data-start=\"3552\" data-end=\"3590\">orta-uzun vadede y\u00fczde 11 civar\u0131na<\/strong> do\u011fru bir yak\u0131nsama \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3625\" data-end=\"3888\">Anket, her ay oldu\u011fu gibi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak <strong data-start=\"3668\" data-end=\"3721\">55 finansal sekt\u00f6r ve 17 reel sekt\u00f6r temsilcisine<\/strong> uygulan\u0131yor ve sonu\u00e7lar yaln\u0131zca kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n beklentilerini yans\u0131t\u0131yor; TCMB de raporda, verilerin <strong data-start=\"3824\" data-end=\"3888\">Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n resmi tahmini olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyor.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>TCMB\u2019nin ocak ay\u0131 Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi\u2019ne g\u00f6re, 12 ay sonras\u0131 enflasyon beklentisi gerilerken, dolar\/TL y\u0131l sonu beklentisi 51,17 oldu. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini y\u00fczde 3,9, 2027\u2019yi ise y\u00fczde 4,3 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1488,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Piyasa, 2026 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisini y\u00fczde 23,23\u2019e \u00e7ekti - Merceknet Haber<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/01\/16\/piyasa-2026-yil-sonu-enflasyon-beklentisini-yuzde-2323e-cekti\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Piyasa, 2026 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisini y\u00fczde 23,23\u2019e \u00e7ekti - Merceknet Haber\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"TCMB\u2019nin ocak ay\u0131 Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi\u2019ne g\u00f6re, 12 ay sonras\u0131 enflasyon beklentisi gerilerken, dolar\/TL y\u0131l sonu beklentisi 51,17 oldu. 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