{"id":11858,"date":"2026-03-10T21:36:04","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T18:36:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/?p=11858"},"modified":"2026-03-10T21:37:44","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T18:37:44","slug":"abd-icin-iran-savasi-nerede-biter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/03\/10\/abd-icin-iran-savasi-nerede-biter\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD \u0130\u00e7in \u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131 Nerede Biter?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yasir Atalan analizinde, ABD ile \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131n asker\u00ee boyutunun \u00f6tesinde Washington\u2019un bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 hangi siyasi e\u015fikte sonland\u0131rmay\u0131 hedefledi\u011fine odaklan\u0131yor. Atalan\u2019a g\u00f6re sahadaki asker\u00ee bask\u0131, \u0130ran rejimini k\u0131sa vadede \u00e7\u00f6kertmekten \u00e7ok, Tahran\u2019\u0131n f\u00fcze ve dron kapasitesini s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131, rejimin i\u00e7 bask\u0131 kapasitesini zay\u0131flatmay\u0131 ve \u00fclkeyi a\u011f\u0131r bir ekonomik bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda b\u0131rakmay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. Analizde, Trump y\u00f6netiminin sava\u015f\u0131n maliyeti, Kongre dengeleri ve Amerikan kamuoyundan gelebilecek bask\u0131lar nedeniyle uzun s\u00fcreli bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan ka\u00e7\u0131nabilece\u011fi; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k uygun bir siyas\u00ee zemin olu\u015fmas\u0131 halinde mevcut tabloyu bir \u201czafer\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrerek sava\u015f\u0131 sonland\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendirmesi yap\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yasir Atalan<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in 28 \u015eubat\u2019ta \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131n ilk safhalar\u0131ndan itibaren, anl\u0131k geli\u015fmelerin \u00f6tesinde en \u00e7ok merak edilen konulardan biri, Washington\u2019un bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 hangi siyasi e\u015fi\u011fe kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi oldu. Sava\u015f\u0131 bitirecek taraf\u0131n, bir noktada zafer ilan ederek ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump olaca\u011f\u0131 bilindi\u011finden, bu soruya yan\u0131t verebilmek i\u00e7in ABD a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan asker\u00ee operasyonlar\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131, maliyetin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi ve siyasal bask\u0131lar gibi parametrelerin dikkate al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi de\u011ferlendirmeler, ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in stratejik hedefinin n\u00fckleer dosyayla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131p kalmayaca\u011f\u0131 ya da do\u011frudan rejimi hedef al\u0131p almayaca\u011f\u0131 sorusu etraf\u0131nda \u015fekilleniyordu. Sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n Devrim Rehberi Ali Hamaney\u2019i hedef almas\u0131yla birlikte bu belirsizlik ortadan kalkt\u0131. ABD ve \u0130srail, kademeli bir bask\u0131 modeli yerine do\u011frudan rejimin sinir merkezini ve asker\u00ee omurgas\u0131n\u0131 hedef alan bir operasyon tercih etti. ABD\u2019nin hedef seti; komuta-kontrol merkezlerinden Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (DMO) kararg\u00e2hlar\u0131na, entegre hava savunma sistemlerinden balistik f\u00fcze sahalar\u0131na ve deniz unsurlar\u0131na kadar uzand\u0131.<\/span><\/p>\n

Operasyonda kullan\u0131lan kuvvet paketi de sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi tahminlerle b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. B-2 ve B-52 bombard\u0131man u\u00e7aklar\u0131, yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 adet F-22 ve F-35 hayalet u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131, bunlara ek olarak 110 civar\u0131nda F-15, F-16 ve A-10 gibi hayalet olmayan u\u00e7aklar ile u\u00e7ak gemilerinden faaliyet g\u00f6steren F\/A-18E\/F ve F-35C platformlar\u0131 operasyonun temel unsurlar\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. G\u00fcnl\u00fck maliyeti yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 milyon dolar olarak hesaplanan bu hava operasyonlar\u0131yla \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u00fcretme kapasitesi sistematik bi\u00e7imde a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n hacmi kadar hedefleme mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 da sava\u015f\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131na dair \u00f6nemli ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 sundu. Komuta-kontrol merkezleri ve asker\u00ee \u00fcslerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n misilleme kapasitesi de do\u011frudan hedef al\u0131nd\u0131. Bu sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan sava\u015f\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131n\u0131n sonunda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n balistik f\u00fcze at\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ilk g\u00fcne k\u0131yasla yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 90, tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc dron sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ise yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 80 oran\u0131nda azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edilmektedir. Bu tablo, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bundan sonraki a\u015famada uygulayabilece\u011fi misilleme stratejisinin daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir \u00e7er\u00e7evede kalabilece\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ayn\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te ABD\u2019nin B-2 ve B-52 platformlar\u0131 arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yer alt\u0131 bar\u0131naklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 delici m\u00fchimmat kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 da bilinmektedir. Bu sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu konusunda kesin veriler bulunmamaktad\u0131r. Bununla birlikte a\u00e7\u0131k kaynak uydu g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcleri, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n da\u011fl\u0131k b\u00f6lgelerde saklad\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fchimmat ve f\u00fcze stoklar\u0131n\u0131n tamamen yok edilmedi\u011fini; ancak bu stoklara eri\u015fimi sa\u011flayan t\u00fcnel \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n hedef al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu durum, Washington\u2019\u0131n t\u00fcm stoku imha etmekten \u00e7ok, sava\u015f\u0131n s\u0131cak safhas\u0131nda bu stoklar\u0131n kullan\u0131labilirli\u011fini azaltmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcrmektedir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla sava\u015f sonras\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n balistik f\u00fcze kapasitesinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 elinde tutmaya devam etmesi muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Devam eden s\u00fcrecin dikkat \u00e7ekici bir di\u011fer y\u00f6n\u00fc ise hedef setinin zamanla geni\u015flemesidir. Son raporlar, enerji ve su tesisleri gibi kritik altyap\u0131lar\u0131n da ABD ve \u0130srail taraf\u0131ndan hedef al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu durum, sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yaln\u0131zca rejimin asker\u00ee kapasitesini de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda i\u00e7 idare kapasitesini ve toplum \u00fczerindeki g\u00fcndelik kontrol zeminini de hedef almaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymaktad\u0131r. Ba\u015fka bir ifadeyle hava ve deniz kuvvetleriyle y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen bu operasyonlar, rejimin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k kapasitesini bask\u0131 alt\u0131na almay\u0131 ama\u00e7lamaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sava\u015f\u0131n ABD\u2019ye Maliyeti<\/span><\/h2>\n

Sava\u015f\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131n\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in operasyonun maliyet boyutuna da bakmak gerekir. Harek\u00e2t\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnleri ABD a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a maliyetli ge\u00e7ti; ilk sald\u0131r\u0131larda b\u00f6lgedeki y\u00fczey gemilerinden y\u00fcksek maliyetli Tomahawk f\u00fczeleri yo\u011fun \u015fekilde kullan\u0131ld\u0131. Tahminlere g\u00f6re sava\u015f\u0131n ilk 100 saatinin toplam maliyeti yakla\u015f\u0131k 3,7 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131 ve bunun yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,5 milyar dolar\u0131 taarruz m\u00fchimmat\u0131na harcand\u0131. Ancak sava\u015f\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcn\u00fcnden itibaren hava \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn daha geni\u015f bir alanda ABD\u2019nin eline ge\u00e7mesi, operasyonun pahal\u0131 ve uzak mesafeden kullan\u0131lan m\u00fchimmatlardan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yakla\u015f\u0131k 4 milyon dolara mal olan bir Tomahawk f\u00fczesinin uzaktan f\u0131rlat\u0131lmas\u0131 yerine, F-35 platformundan b\u0131rak\u0131lan ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 80 bin dolar tutar\u0131ndaki JDAM t\u00fcr\u00fc g\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc bombalar benzer patlay\u0131c\u0131 etkiyi \u00fcretebilmektedir. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hava savunmas\u0131 bask\u0131land\u0131k\u00e7a ABD\u2019nin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir sald\u0131r\u0131 temposu olu\u015fturabilmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn h\u00e2le gelmektedir. Bu nedenle sava\u015f\u0131n, m\u00fchimmat yetersizli\u011fi nedeniyle sona ermesi ihtimali olduk\u00e7a zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sava\u015f\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinden itibaren siyasi s\u00f6ylemler ve asker\u00ee a\u00e7\u0131klamalar da baz\u0131 \u00f6nemli ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 vermektedir. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta operasyonu a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi hedefiyle ili\u015fkilendirmi\u015f olsa da son g\u00fcnlerde s\u00f6ylem tonunun belirli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yumu\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. \u00d6zellikle ilk g\u00fcnlerde Trump\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki K\u00fcrt gruplar\u0131 mobilize etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, Washington\u2019\u0131n hava g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan kara g\u00fcc\u00fc konusunda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 se\u00e7eneklere sahip oldu\u011funu ve bu alanda yeni opsiyonlar yaratmak istedi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte son d\u00f6nemdeki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, sert \u201ctam teslimiyet\u201d s\u00f6ylemine ra\u011fmen Washington\u2019\u0131n Venezuela modeline benzer bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc de de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcrmektedir. Bu modelde rejimin tamamen \u00e7\u00f6kertilmesi yerine, rejim i\u00e7inden ABD ile m\u00fczakere edebilecek daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir fig\u00fcrle devam edilmesi ihtimali g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Bu s\u00f6ylem de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, mevcut asker\u00ee sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede rejimin \u00e7\u00f6kmesiyle sonu\u00e7lanmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fark edildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu nedenle daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir de\u011ferlendirme, Washington\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fck f\u00fcze ve dron kapasitesini minimize etmeye, rejimin ileride kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fi toplumsal hareketleri bast\u0131rma kapasitesini zay\u0131flatmaya ve \u00fclkeye ekonomik zarar vermeye odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Misilleme Kapasitesi<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131lara verdi\u011fi misilleme ise 12 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadaki modelden belirgin bi\u00e7imde farkl\u0131la\u015fmaktad\u0131r. Tahran bu kez yaln\u0131zca \u0130srail\u2019i hedef almam\u0131\u015f, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri ile ABD \u00fcslerini de hedef alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde K\u00f6rfez\u2019e y\u00f6nelmesi, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n asker\u00ee bask\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131nda ekonomik maliyet \u00fcretmeyi de ama\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymaktad\u0131r. K\u00f6rfez savunma bakanl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n verilerine g\u00f6re Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri ilk g\u00fcnlerde 196 balistik f\u00fcze, 1.072 dron ve 8 seyir f\u00fczesi tespit etti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Katar 101 balistik f\u00fcze, 39 dron ve 3 seyir f\u00fczesi bildirmi\u015ftir. Kuveyt 178 balistik f\u00fcze ve 384 dron \u00f6nledi\u011fini duyururken, Bahreyn 74 f\u00fcze ve 123 dron imha etti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu rakamlar, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n a\u011f\u0131r bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda dahi b\u00f6lgesel maliyet \u00fcretme kapasitesini tamamen kaybetmedi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde istihbarat deste\u011fi sa\u011flamaya ba\u015flamas\u0131, Tahran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel hedeflere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131 kapasitesini belirli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde korudu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir. Bundan hareketle \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n as\u0131l kozunun, ABD ve m\u00fcttefiklerine maliyet y\u00fckleme kapasitesi oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Sava\u015f riskinin deniz ticaret maliyetlerini y\u00fckseltmesi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n maliyetini Pentagon b\u00fct\u00e7esinin \u00f6tesine ta\u015f\u0131yabilecek bir potansiyel yaratmaktad\u0131r. Artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 bu e\u011filimin ilk g\u00f6stergeleridir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak sava\u015f\u0131n asker\u00ee tablosu, iki temel ger\u00e7e\u011fi ayn\u0131 anda ortaya koymaktad\u0131r. \u0130ran, ABD\u2019nin mutlak asker\u00ee \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f olsa da b\u00f6lgedeki kritik ekonomik hatlara zarar verebilecek kapasitesini tamamen kaybetmi\u015f de\u011fildir. ABD ise \u0130ran \u00fczerinde hava \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sa\u011flayarak operasyon maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyi ba\u015farm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Buna ra\u011fmen mevcut tablo, rejimin k\u0131sa vadede \u00e7\u00f6kece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 desteklememektedir. Bu nedenle Washington\u2019daki karar al\u0131c\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan sava\u015f\u0131n devam\u0131na ili\u015fkin temel belirleyici unsur, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n elinde kalan f\u00fcze ve dron kapasitesinin yaratabilece\u011fi ekonomik ve b\u00f6lgesel maliyetin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc olacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

ABD Kamuoyunun Trump Y\u00f6netimine Bask\u0131s\u0131<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u0130\u00e7 siyasette Trump y\u00f6netimi, kendisinden \u00f6nceki ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n izledi\u011fi \u00e7izgiyi takip ederek sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in Kongre\u2019den \u00f6n onay alma yoluna gitmemi\u015ftir. Mevcut Amerikan mevzuat\u0131 bu konuda zaten \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde mu\u011flakl\u0131klar bar\u0131nd\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. ABD Kongresi, \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan bu yana resm\u00ee bir sava\u015f ilan\u0131nda bulunmam\u0131\u015f; buna ra\u011fmen ABD, Kore, Vietnam, Irak ve Afganistan gibi tam \u00f6l\u00e7ekli \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara girmi\u015ftir. Bu tarihsel pratik, y\u00fcr\u00fctmenin sava\u015f ba\u015flatma kapasitesinin \u00e7o\u011fu zaman hukuki s\u0131n\u0131rlardan ziyade siyasi dengeler taraf\u0131ndan belirlendi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. Bununla birlikte \u00fc\u00e7 temel dinami\u011fin belirleyici oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130lk olarak 1973\u2019te kabul edilen Sava\u015f Yetkileri Yasas\u0131 (War Powers Resolution), teoride ba\u015fkan\u0131n yetkilerini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve sunsa da uygulamada bu s\u0131n\u0131rlama olduk\u00e7a zay\u0131f kalmaktad\u0131r. Yasaya g\u00f6re ba\u015fkan, kuvvet kullan\u0131m\u0131ndan sonra 48 saat i\u00e7inde Kongre\u2019ye rapor sunmak zorundad\u0131r. Kongre a\u00e7\u0131k bir yetki vermezse 60 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde harek\u00e2t\u0131n sonland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve en fazla 30 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ek s\u00fcrenin g\u00fcvenli \u00e7ekilme i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir. Mevcut tabloda Kongre\u2019nin iki kanad\u0131nda da Cumhuriyet\u00e7ilerin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Buna ra\u011fmen Trump\u2019\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya y\u00f6nelik bir irade olu\u015ftu\u011fu varsay\u0131lsa bile ba\u015fkan\u0131n bu yasay\u0131 \u00e7e\u015fitli yollarla a\u015fmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Tarihsel \u00f6rnekler bu konuda geni\u015f bir hareket alan\u0131 sunmaktad\u0131r. Trump, Barack Obama\u2019n\u0131n 2011\u2019de Libya operasyonunda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, s\u00f6z konusu faaliyetlerin \u201csava\u015f\u201d de\u011fil yaln\u0131zca hava kuvvetlerinin kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir asker\u00ee operasyon oldu\u011funu ileri s\u00fcrebilir. Nitekim \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n Savunma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan \u201csava\u015f\u201d yerine \u201casker\u00ee operasyon\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlanmas\u0131 bu t\u00fcr bir yoruma zemin haz\u0131rlamaktad\u0131r. Alternatif olarak, 2019\u2019da Yemen\u2019deki operasyonlar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan yasa tasar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 veto etti\u011fi \u00f6rnekte oldu\u011fu gibi, Kongre\u2019nin giri\u015fimlerini veto ederek s\u00fcreci bloke edebilir. Bu nedenle War Powers Resolution, hukuki a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6nemli bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve sunmakla birlikte ba\u015fkan\u0131 fiilen otomatik olarak durduran bir mekanizma \u00fcretmemektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n mevcut siyasi tabloda da kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bulunmaktad\u0131r. Trump\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki siyasal koalisyon hen\u00fcz onu geri ad\u0131m atmaya zorlayacak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. Nitekim Senato, Tim Kaine \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki sava\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama giri\u015fimini 47\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 53 oyla reddetmi\u015ftir. Temsilciler Meclisi ise benzer bir giri\u015fimi 212\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 219 oyla geri \u00e7evirmi\u015ftir. Bu sonu\u00e7lar Trump\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f karar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik kayda de\u011fer bir rahats\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n bulundu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir; ancak bu rahats\u0131zl\u0131k hen\u00fcz ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 bir Kongre iradesine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f de\u011fildir.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130kinci olarak Trump\u2019\u0131 Kongre kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan h\u00e2le getirebilecek ba\u015fl\u0131ca unsur sava\u015f\u0131n maliyetidir. ABD\u2019de di\u011fer bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkeden farkl\u0131 olarak b\u00fct\u00e7enin kontrol\u00fc Kongre\u2019dedir. Kongre yaln\u0131zca b\u00fct\u00e7eyi onaylamakla kalmaz, ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00f6denekleri de belirler. Trump\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131n maliyetini kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in ek \u00f6denek talep etmesi gerekti\u011finde Kongre\u2019nin etkisi artacakt\u0131r. Sava\u015f\u0131n ilk 100 saatinde toplam maliyetin yakla\u015f\u0131k 3,7 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yaratabilece\u011fi zararlarla bu maliyetin daha da artabilece\u011fi hesaba kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u00fcr\u00fctmenin bir noktada ek finansman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na girmesi muhtemeldir. Bu maliyetin yakla\u015f\u0131k 200 milyon dolarl\u0131k k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nceden b\u00fct\u00e7elendirilmi\u015f oldu\u011fu bilinmektedir. Geri kalan yakla\u015f\u0131k 3,5 milyar dolarl\u0131k b\u00f6l\u00fcm ola\u011fan b\u00fct\u00e7e s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Trump\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131n maliyetini kar\u015f\u0131layabilmek i\u00e7in Kongre\u2019den ek \u00f6denek talep etmesi ve bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te Demokratlar\u0131n deste\u011fine ihtiya\u00e7 duymas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc olarak kamuoyu bask\u0131s\u0131 da Trump \u00fczerinde i\u00e7 siyasi bir s\u0131n\u0131r olu\u015fturabilir. \u015eu a\u015famada Amerikan kamuoyu yekpare bir sava\u015f kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 \u00e7izgiye ge\u00e7mi\u015f de\u011fildir. Ancak zaman ilerledik\u00e7e petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ve enflasyon etkisinin daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr h\u00e2le gelmesi bu tabloyu de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir. \u00d6zellikle Demokratlar\u0131n g\u00f6rece avantajl\u0131 oldu\u011fu Kas\u0131m 2026 ara se\u00e7imleri yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a sava\u015f\u0131n ekonomik maliyeti i\u00e7 siyasette daha belirleyici bir konu h\u00e2line gelebilir. Buna ek olarak Amerikan askerlerinin kay\u0131plar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanmas\u0131 kamuoyunda ciddi tepkiler do\u011furabilir. Ba\u015fka bir ifadeyle \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, Amerikan se\u00e7meni i\u00e7in g\u00fcndelik hayat pahal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve uzun s\u00fcreli belirsizli\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrse bug\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olan siyasi itiraz daha \u00f6rg\u00fctl\u00fc bir bask\u0131ya evrilebilir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede ABD a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan sava\u015f\u0131n nihai hedefinin Tahran\u2019da rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi oldu\u011fu varsay\u0131m\u0131 ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. Daha muhtemel olan senaryo; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n asker\u00ee kapasitesinin ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, rejimin i\u00e7eride olu\u015fabilecek protesto dalgalar\u0131n\u0131 bast\u0131rma kapasitesinin zay\u0131flat\u0131lmas\u0131 ve ekonomik bask\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131d\u0131r. Ama\u00e7, rejimi d\u0131\u015f politikadan \u00e7ok i\u00e7 ekonomik ve siyasi sorunlarla me\u015fgul olaca\u011f\u0131 bir denkleme s\u00fcr\u00fcklemektir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte Trump\u2019\u0131n uzun ve maliyetli sava\u015flardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak istedi\u011fi bilinmektedir. Bu nedenle erken bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f se\u00e7ene\u011fi olu\u015fturma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcd\u00fcr. Ayr\u0131ca asker\u00ee a\u00e7\u0131dan Washington\u2019\u0131n zafer ilan edebilece\u011fi bir zemin \u015fimdiden olu\u015fmu\u015f durumdad\u0131r. Rejimin kilit isimlerinin \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n asker\u00ee kapasitesinin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, ABD a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f anlat\u0131s\u0131 \u00fcretmek i\u00e7in yeterli g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. K\u0131sa vadede rejime kar\u015f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir protesto dalgas\u0131 olu\u015fmaz ya da etnik gruplar \u00fczerinden yeni bir i\u00e7 cephe a\u00e7\u0131lmazsa Trump, \u0130ran rejiminin yeterince zay\u0131flat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bundan sonras\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran toplumunun meselesi oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyerek sava\u015f\u0131 siyasi bir zafer hik\u00e2yesiyle sonland\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k asker\u00ee bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi tercih edilirse ABD, uzun s\u00fcredir uzakla\u015fmak istedi\u011fi Ortado\u011fu\u2019da kendisini daha derin bir angajman\u0131n i\u00e7inde bulabilir.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Yasir Atalan<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Dr. Yasir Atalan, Center for Strategic and International Studies b\u00fcnyesindeki Futures Lab\u2019de direkt\u00f6r yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 teknoloji ve uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik alan\u0131na odaklanmakta, \u00f6zellikle yapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma dinamiklerini nas\u0131l d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc incelemektedir. Dr. Atalan, yapay zek\u00e2 ajanlar\u0131n\u0131n savunma ve d\u0131\u015f politika sistemlerine sorumlu bi\u00e7imde nas\u0131l entegre edilebilece\u011fini ara\u015ft\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

Not: Yaz\u0131, www.iramcenter.org internet adresinden iktibas edilmi\u015ftir.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yasir Atalan, ABD-\u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sava\u015f\u0131nda Washington\u2019un hedefinin rejimi k\u0131sa vadede devirmekten \u00e7ok, Tahran\u2019\u0131n asker\u00ee kapasitesini s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmak ve uygun bir siyasi e\u015fikte \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 \u201czafer\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131yla sonland\u0131rmak olabilece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11859,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[575,574,581,1320],"class_list":["post-11858","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiz","tag-abd","tag-iran","tag-ortadogu","tag-trump"],"yoast_head":"\nABD \u0130\u00e7in \u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131 Nerede Biter? - Merceknet Haber<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/03\/10\/abd-icin-iran-savasi-nerede-biter\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ABD \u0130\u00e7in \u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131 Nerede Biter? 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