{"id":10519,"date":"2026-03-04T22:57:27","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T19:57:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/?p=10519"},"modified":"2026-03-04T23:01:06","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T20:01:06","slug":"abd-ve-israilin-saldirilari-iranda-kurt-silahli-gruplari-harekete-gecirebilir-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/03\/04\/abd-ve-israilin-saldirilari-iranda-kurt-silahli-gruplari-harekete-gecirebilir-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in Sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019da K\u00fcrt Silahl\u0131 Gruplar\u0131 Harekete Ge\u00e7irebilir mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0130ran\u2019da sava\u015f\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fe yay\u0131lma riski artt\u0131k\u00e7a, tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 yaln\u0131zca hava harek\u00e2tlar\u0131n\u0131n asker\u00ee etkisine de\u011fil, bu bask\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n i\u00e7 dengelerinde bir k\u0131r\u0131lma \u00fcretip \u00fcretemeyece\u011fine kay\u0131yor. 28 \u015eubat 2026\u2019da ba\u015flayan ABD-\u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, sahada g\u00fcvenlik altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hedef alan bir y\u0131k\u0131m stratejisiyle ilerlerken, siyasal ama\u00e7 boyutunda \u201ctoplumsal mobilizasyon\u201d ihtimalini de g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Tam da bu atmosferde, 22 \u015eubat\u2019ta be\u015f K\u00fcrt \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn \u201c\u0130ran K\u00fcrdistan\u0131 Siyasi G\u00fc\u00e7ler Koalisyonu\u201d ilan etmesi, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kuzeybat\u0131s\u0131nda yeni bir denklem kurulup kurulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorusunu b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc. Ancak bu iki geli\u015fmeyi birlikte okurken, \u201chareketlenme\u201d ile \u201cayaklanma \u00fcretme\u201d aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131, \u00f6rg\u00fctler aras\u0131 rekabeti, toplumsal taban\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 ve \u0130ran devlet kapasitesini ayn\u0131 anda hesaba katmak gerekiyor. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 \u00c7a\u011fatay Balc\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmelerinden esinlenen bu analiz, \u00f6nce sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n K\u00fcrt silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131 tetikleme ihtimalini tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor; ard\u0131ndan koalisyonun neyi temsil etti\u011fini, hangi yap\u0131sal s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131l\u0131klar i\u00e7inde \u015fekillendi\u011fini ve hangi ko\u015fullarda anlam kazanabilece\u011fini irdelemeyi ama\u00e7l\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"ABD<\/p>\n

1) ABD Ve \u0130srail\u2019in Sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019da K\u00fcrt Silahl\u0131 Gruplar\u0131 Harekete Ge\u00e7irebilir Mi?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in 28 \u015eubat 2026\u2019da \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hava harek\u00e2tlar\u0131, salt asker\u00ee kapasiteyi zay\u0131flatma hedefiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 okunmuyor. Hedef setinin \u00f6zellikle K\u00fcrt n\u00fcfusun yo\u011fun ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Bat\u0131 Azerbaycan, K\u00fcrdistan, \u0130lam ve Kirman\u015fah hatt\u0131nda \u201cg\u00fcvenlik altyap\u0131s\u0131\u201dna y\u00f6nelmesi, operasyonlar\u0131n arka plan\u0131nda bir toplumsal-siyasal k\u0131r\u0131lma<\/strong> beklentisinin bulundu\u011fu yorumlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede en kritik soru \u015fudur: Hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019da K\u00fcrt silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131 tetikleyip bir ayaklanma dinami\u011fi yaratabilir mi?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Mevcut ko\u015fullar, bu soruya ihtiyatl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u201czor\u201d<\/strong> yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 verdiriyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ayaklanma \u00fcretmek i\u00e7in yaln\u0131zca \u201cf\u0131rsat\u201d de\u011fil, en az d\u00f6rt yap\u0131sal ko\u015ful gerekir: \u00f6rg\u00fctsel birlik, toplumsal mobilizasyon, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir lojistik hat ve devlet kapasitesinde belirgin a\u015f\u0131nma. \u0130ran \u00f6rne\u011finde bu d\u00f6rt ba\u015fl\u0131kta da ciddi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131l\u0131klar g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

a) \u00d6rg\u00fctsel Par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015fl\u0131k: \u201cOrtak cephe\u201d ile \u201cortak strateji\u201d ayn\u0131 \u015fey de\u011fil<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130ran K\u00fcrt silahl\u0131 alan\u0131, y\u0131llard\u0131r ideolojik b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeler<\/strong>, liderlik rekabetleri<\/strong> ve d\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahaleye yakla\u015f\u0131m farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131<\/strong> \u00fczerinden par\u00e7al\u0131. Ayn\u0131 hedefe y\u00fcr\u00fcyen tek bir komuta akl\u0131 olu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, d\u0131\u015f akt\u00f6rlerle ili\u015fki kurma bi\u00e7imleri de farkl\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor. Bu durum, hava harek\u00e2tlar\u0131n\u0131n yaratabilece\u011fi \u201cmomentumu\u201d sahada koordine bir silahl\u0131 harekete d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmeyi g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015ftiriyor. Bir ba\u015fka ifadeyle, \u201chareketlenme\u201d ihtimali konu\u015fulsa da, bunun e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc bir ayaklanma kapasitesine<\/strong> evrilmesi daha zor bir e\u015fik.<\/span><\/p>\n

b) Toplumsal Zemin: Kitle deste\u011fi olmadan ayaklanma \u201cs\u00fcreklilik\u201d \u00fcretmez<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Silahl\u0131 hareketlerin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli eylem kapasitesi olabilir; fakat ayaklanma, toplumsal kat\u0131l\u0131m<\/strong> ve me\u015fruiyet<\/strong> olmadan s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir hale gelemez. \u0130ran K\u00fcrt toplumunun tarihsel haf\u0131zas\u0131nda 1979-80 d\u00f6neminin sert bast\u0131r\u0131lma deneyimi, \u201csilahl\u0131 kalk\u0131\u015fma\u201dya d\u00f6n\u00fck ihtiyat\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcten bir etki yarat\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca yerel demografi ve mezhepsel fay hatlar\u0131, tek bir siyasal y\u00f6nelimin toplumsal tabana \u201chomojen\u201d bi\u00e7imde yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu da kitlesel mobilizasyonun en temel \u00f6n ko\u015fulu olan ortak duygu ve ortak hedef<\/strong> \u00fcretimini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>\n

c) Lojistik ve d\u0131\u015f destek: Hava harek\u00e2t\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na \u201cisyan lojisti\u011fi\u201d kurmaz<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Etnik mobilizasyon literat\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn temel bulgular\u0131ndan biri, hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u201c\u015fok\u201d etkisi yaratabilse de kara deste\u011fi<\/strong> veya kesintisiz lojistik koridor<\/strong> olmadan isyan\u0131 beslemede yetersiz kalmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130ran gibi kurumsalla\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00fcvenlik mimarisine sahip bir devlette, ayaklanman\u0131n ayakta kalmas\u0131 i\u00e7in yaln\u0131zca silah de\u011fil, s\u00fcreklilik sa\u011flayan ikmal, g\u00fcvenli geri \u00e7ekilme hatlar\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya a\u00e7\u0131k bir alan gerekir. Bu alan\u0131n olu\u015fmamas\u0131, \u201ck\u0131sa s\u00fcreli \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma\u201d ihtimalini art\u0131rsa da \u201crejimi zorlayan ayaklanma\u201d ihtimalini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr.<\/span><\/p>\n

d) \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik kapasitesi ve proaktif refleksi<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130ran, \u00f6zellikle Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 ve ona ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik a\u011flar\u0131yla, etnik mobilizasyon senaryolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcksek bir tecr\u00fcbeye sahip. B\u00f6yle d\u00f6nemlerde yaln\u0131zca reaksiyon de\u011fil, \u00f6nleyici bask\u0131<\/strong> mekanizmalar\u0131 da devreye sokulabiliyor. Bu kapasite, \u201ckalk\u0131\u015fma\u201d ihtimalini daha kulu\u00e7ka a\u015famas\u0131nda bast\u0131rabilen bir devlet refleksi olu\u015fturuyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 atmosfer, sahada bir \u201chareketlilik\u201d do\u011fursa bile, bunun kal\u0131c\u0131 bir isyana d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi<\/strong> i\u00e7in devlet kapasitesinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/span><\/p>\n

ABD-\u0130srail hava harek\u00e2tlar\u0131, K\u00fcrt silahl\u0131 gruplar i\u00e7in \u201cf\u0131rsat penceresi\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131 \u00fcretebilir; fakat par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f \u00f6rg\u00fct yap\u0131s\u0131, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toplumsal mobilizasyon, lojistik s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik sorunu ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik kapasitesi nedeniyle, \u201cgeni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli ayaklanma\u201d senaryosu k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u0130ran\u2019da<\/p>\n

2) \u0130ran\u2019da K\u00fcrt Silahl\u0131 Gruplar\u0131n \u0130\u015f Birli\u011fi Giri\u015fimi Ne Anlama Geliyor?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Bu sorunun ikinci halkas\u0131, 22 \u015eubat 2026\u2019da be\u015f \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn \u201c\u0130ran K\u00fcrdistan\u0131 Siyasi G\u00fc\u00e7ler Koalisyonu\u201d ilan\u0131yla daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale geldi. \u0130lk bak\u0131\u015fta bu ad\u0131m \u201ctarihsel birle\u015fme\u201d gibi sunulsa da, daha do\u011fru okuma \u015fudur: Bu koalisyon, \u0130ran\u2019a d\u00f6n\u00fck d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131 ile i\u00e7eride rejim k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklentisinin kesi\u015fti\u011fi bir e\u015fikte ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan konjonkt\u00fcrel bir kurumsalla\u015fma<\/strong> denemesidir.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019da faaliyet y\u00fcr\u00fcten ya da s\u00fcrg\u00fcnde \u00f6rg\u00fctlenen be\u015f K\u00fcrt muhalif yap\u0131; \u0130ran K\u00fcrdistan Demokrat Partisi (\u0130KDP\/KDP-I), PJAK, PAK, Komala ve Habat, 22 \u015eubat 2026\u2019da \u201c\u0130ran K\u00fcrdistan\u0131 Siyasi G\u00fc\u00e7ler Koalisyonu\u201d ad\u0131 alt\u0131nda yeni bir ortak \u00e7at\u0131 kurduklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Duyuru, \u00f6zellikle \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kuzeybat\u0131s\u0131nda yeni bir siyasal ve g\u00fcvenlik denklemine i\u015faret etti\u011fi gerek\u00e7esiyle dikkat \u00e7ekti. Ancak bu geli\u015fmeyi, tek ba\u015f\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 ve tarihsel bir k\u0131r\u0131lma olarak de\u011fil, \u0130ran\u2019a d\u00f6n\u00fck d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131, i\u00e7eride rejim k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi bir e\u015fikte ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan konjonkt\u00fcrel bir pozisyon al\u0131\u015f olarak de\u011ferlendirmek daha isabetli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu koalisyonun ilan\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019daki K\u00fcrt hareketinin ilk ortakla\u015fma denemesi de\u011fil. Benzer i\u015f birli\u011fi aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131 daha \u00f6nce de, \u00f6zellikle rejim \u00fczerinde bask\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 2018 ba\u015f\u0131nda ilan edilen \u201c\u0130ran K\u00fcrdistan\u0131 Siyasi Partileri \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Merkezi\u201d, Donald Trump y\u00f6netiminin \u201cmaksimum bask\u0131\u201d politikas\u0131n\u0131n ve \u0130ran i\u00e7inde protesto dalgas\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm beklentisinin \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcyd\u00fc; ancak beklenen siyasal k\u0131r\u0131lma ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyince platform k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede etkisini yitirdi. Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde 2022\u2019de Mehsa Emini sonras\u0131 protestolar s\u0131ras\u0131nda canlanan i\u015f birli\u011fi aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da ortak strateji \u00fcretmekten \u00e7ok temsil, liderlik ve me\u015fruiyet rekabetini g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr k\u0131ld\u0131. Kullan\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 analizde i\u015faret edildi\u011fi gibi, 2025\u2019te \u0130ran-\u0130srail hatt\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda da d\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahale kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131 tutumlar ortak zemini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Bu nedenle 2026\u2019daki yeni koalisyon, ge\u00e7mi\u015ften kopan bir \u201cyeni d\u00f6nem\u201d de\u011fil, tekrar eden bir \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcn\u00fcn daha kurumsal bir versiyonu niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7eve, \u0130RAM\u2019da yay\u0131mlanan analizlerle de \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Koalisyonun zamanlamas\u0131 da dikkat \u00e7ekici. 2025 sonundaki kitlesel protestolar, \u0130ran sisteminin i\u00e7eriden zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki kanaati g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken; 28 \u015eubat 2026\u2019da ba\u015flayan ABD-\u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, muhalif \u00e7evrelerde rejimin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 daha da besledi. 3 Mart 2026 tarihli \u0130RAM analizine g\u00f6re, ABD-\u0130srail hava harek\u00e2tlar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca asker\u00ee altyap\u0131y\u0131 de\u011fil, \u0130ran i\u00e7inde rejim kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 bir hareketlilik \u00fcretmeyi de hedefledi\u011fi tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu nedenle 22 \u015eubat\u2019taki koalisyon ilan\u0131, yaln\u0131zca \u00f6rg\u00fct i\u00e7i bir siyasi karar de\u011fil, daha geni\u015f b\u00f6lgesel kriz ortam\u0131na verilmi\u015f stratejik bir cevap olarak da okunuyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, bu yap\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcndeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck engel, \u00f6rg\u00fctler aras\u0131ndaki derin ve kronik rekabet. Her bir akt\u00f6r, \u201c\u0130ran K\u00fcrt siyasetinin asli ve me\u015fru temsilcisi\u201d olma iddias\u0131n\u0131 elinde tutmak istiyor. Bu durum, ortak platformlar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lsa da, orta ve uzun vadede onlar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getiriyor. Nitekim ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnekler, i\u015f birli\u011fi mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ideolojik uyumdan de\u011fil, ge\u00e7ici \u00e7\u0131kar kesi\u015fmesinden do\u011fdu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Koalisyonun bug\u00fcnk\u00fc yap\u0131s\u0131nda da bu sorunun ortadan kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek zor. Aksine, ortakl\u0131k zemininin \u015fu a\u015famada rekabeti yaln\u0131zca erteledi\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik sorunu, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z analizlerde de \u00f6zellikle vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130deolojik ayr\u0131\u015fmalar da en az liderlik m\u00fccadelesi kadar belirleyici. Bu \u00f6rg\u00fctlerin \u0130ran\u2019daki sorunun tan\u0131m\u0131, K\u00fcrt meselesinin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesi ve d\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahaleye bak\u0131\u015f\u0131 birbirinden olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131. Kullan\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 metinde de belirtildi\u011fi \u00fczere, bir k\u0131s\u0131m \u00f6rg\u00fct d\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahaleyi \u201ctarih\u00ee f\u0131rsat\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, di\u011ferleri bunun sahay\u0131 daha da k\u0131r\u0131lganla\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 kanaatinde. 3 Mart tarihli analizde de, bu par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ABD-\u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019da bir K\u00fcrt ayaklanmas\u0131 \u00fcretmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131ran ana unsurlardan biri oldu\u011fu ifade ediliyor. Bu tablo, koalisyonun ortak komuta ve ortak strateji \u00fcretme kapasitesini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Koalisyonun bir ba\u015fka k\u0131r\u0131lgan noktas\u0131 ise d\u0131\u015f akt\u00f6rlerle kurulan ili\u015fki. \u00d6zellikle ABD ve \u0130srail gibi akt\u00f6rlerden gelebilecek siyasi, lojistik ya da sembolik deste\u011fin kim \u00fczerinden akaca\u011f\u0131 sorusu, \u00f6rg\u00fctler aras\u0131nda ayr\u0131 bir rekabet alan\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle d\u0131\u015f destek beklentisi, koalisyonu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren bir unsura d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmek yerine, taraflar\u0131n birbirini g\u00f6lgelemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir m\u00fccadele zeminine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febiliyor. Bu da platformun ortak davranma kapasitesini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sahadaki \u00f6l\u00e7ek ve kapasite farklar\u0131 da hesaba kat\u0131lmal\u0131. Daha b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6rg\u00fctler, koalisyonu kendi siyasal a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 tahkim edecek bir ara\u00e7 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcrken; daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kapasiteye sahip yap\u0131lar bunu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fck ve me\u015fruiyet art\u0131rma kanal\u0131 olarak kullanma e\u011filiminde. Bu asimetri, koalisyonu e\u015fit ortakl\u0131ktan \u00e7ok, k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir dengeye dayal\u0131 ge\u00e7ici bir \u00e7at\u0131ya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle \u201cbe\u015f \u00f6rg\u00fct bir araya geldi\u201d tespiti, otomatik olarak \u201cbe\u015f \u00f6rg\u00fct ortak bir stratejik hatta birle\u015fti\u201d anlam\u0131na gelmiyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

As\u0131l kritik soru ise \u015fu: Bu koalisyon sahada etkili bir K\u00fcrt silahl\u0131 hareketlili\u011fi ya da ayaklanma \u00fcretebilir mi? 3 Mart 2026 tarihli de\u011ferlendirmeye g\u00f6re bunun \u00f6n\u00fcnde d\u00f6rt temel bariyer bulunuyor: K\u00fcrt gruplar aras\u0131ndaki par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015fl\u0131k, \u0130ran K\u00fcrt toplumunda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve birle\u015fik bir toplumsal mobilizasyon zemininin bulunmamas\u0131, yaln\u0131zca hava harek\u00e2t\u0131na dayal\u0131 d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131n\u0131n kara deste\u011fi olmadan s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir isyan \u00fcretememesi ve \u0130ran devletinin bu t\u00fcr senaryolara kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcksek g\u00fcvenlik kapasitesini korumas\u0131. Ayn\u0131 analiz, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Irak topraklar\u0131ndaki baz\u0131 K\u00fcrt gruplara d\u00f6n\u00fck \u00f6n al\u0131c\u0131 bask\u0131 hamleleriyle bu ihtimali daha ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunuyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 22 \u015eubat\u2019ta ilan edilen koalisyonun k\u0131sa vadede sembolik ve psikolojik etkisi olabilir; \u0130ran i\u00e7indeki muhalif \u00e7evrelere ve d\u0131\u015f akt\u00f6rlere \u201cortak hareket\u201d mesaj\u0131 verebilir. Ancak bunu do\u011frudan sahada d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc, rejim dengesini tek ba\u015f\u0131na de\u011fi\u015ftirecek bir yap\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rmek, mevcut verilerle fazlas\u0131yla iddial\u0131 olur. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019daki K\u00fcrt silahl\u0131 ve siyasal alan\u0131n tarihsel deneyimi, ortakla\u015fma ilanlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu kez kriz anlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi\u011fini, kriz beklentisi zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Neticede, \u201c\u0130ran K\u00fcrdistan\u0131 Siyasi G\u00fc\u00e7ler Koalisyonu\u201d \u015fimdilik kal\u0131c\u0131 bir stratejik birle\u015fmeden \u00e7ok, b\u00f6lgesel sava\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131, rejim k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f destek beklentisiyle \u015fekillenmi\u015f konjonkt\u00fcrel bir ortakl\u0131k izlenimi veriyor. Bu giri\u015fimin ger\u00e7ekten tarihsel bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcp d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmeyece\u011fini ise sahadaki askeri geli\u015fmelerden \u00e7ok, \u00f6rg\u00fctler aras\u0131 rekabetin y\u00f6netilip y\u00f6netilemeyece\u011fi, d\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahale beklentisinin nas\u0131l evrilece\u011fi ve \u0130ran devlet kapasitesinin ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde a\u015f\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 belirleyecek. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc tablo ise, ihtiyatl\u0131 olmay\u0131 gerektiriyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

a) Tekrarlayan \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc: \u201cKriz d\u00f6nemlerinde birlik\u201d e\u011filimi<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130ran K\u00fcrt silahl\u0131\/siyasal alan\u0131nda benzer ortakl\u0131klar, genellikle \u00fc\u00e7 \u015fart\u0131n ayn\u0131 anda belirdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde y\u00fckseliyor:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \u0130ran\u2019a d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131,<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. \u00fclke i\u00e7i protesto dalgalar\u0131yla rejim istikrar\u0131na dair \u015f\u00fcphelerin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi,<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. uluslararas\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerin \u201crejim de\u011fi\u015fimi\u201d veya \u201cbask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rma\u201d sinyalleri.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Bu \u015fartlar zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise platformlar \u00e7o\u011fu zaman etkisizle\u015fiyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla koalisyon, kendili\u011finden \u201ckal\u0131c\u0131 birlik\u201d de\u011fil, daha \u00e7ok \u201ckriz y\u00f6netimi\u201d refleksi \u00fcretiyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

    b) S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n \u00e7ekirde\u011fi: Liderlik, temsil ve me\u015fruiyet rekabeti<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    Koalisyonun en b\u00fcy\u00fck yap\u0131sal s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131, \u00f6rg\u00fctlerin her birinin \u201cme\u015fru temsil\u201d iddias\u0131n\u0131 siyasal sermaye olarak koruma e\u011filimidir. Bu iddia, koalisyonun karar alma s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinde ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak s\u00fcrt\u00fcnme \u00fcretir. Ortak \u00e7at\u0131, rekabeti tamamen bitirmeyebilir; yaln\u0131zca bir s\u00fcreli\u011fine ask\u0131ya alabilir<\/strong>. Kriz derinle\u015fmedi\u011fi ya da beklenen rejim zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi\u011fi takdirde, bu rekabet yeniden belirginle\u015febilir.<\/span><\/p>\n

    c) \u0130deolojik ve stratejik ayr\u0131\u015fma: D\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahaleye bak\u0131\u015f belirleyici<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    Koalisyon i\u00e7indeki akt\u00f6rlerin baz\u0131lar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahaleyi \u201cstratejik f\u0131rsat\u201d, baz\u0131lar\u0131 \u201cy\u00fcksek risk\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcr. Bu fark, sadece siyasi s\u00f6ylem de\u011fil, sahadaki eylem bi\u00e7imini de belirler. D\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahale kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ortak tutum \u00fcretilememesi, koalisyonu bir \u201cpolitik beyan platformu\u201dna indirger; sahada birle\u015fik bir g\u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcretmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

    d) Kapasite asimetrisi: Koalisyon ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 e\u015fitli\u011fi garanti etmez<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    \u00d6rg\u00fctler aras\u0131nda \u00f6l\u00e7ek, saha a\u011f\u0131 ve propaganda kapasitesi fark\u0131 bulunmas\u0131, koalisyonu \u201ce\u015fit ortakl\u0131k\u201dtan \u00e7ok \u201cdenge aray\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201dna iter. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck akt\u00f6rler g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fck kazanmak isterken, b\u00fcy\u00fck akt\u00f6rler koalisyonu hegemonik bir zemin olarak kullanmaya y\u00f6nelebilir. Bu da uzun vadeli i\u015flevselli\u011fi k\u0131r\u0131lgan k\u0131lar.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Ara sonu\u00e7:<\/strong> Koalisyon, \u201ctarihsel kopu\u015f\u201dtan \u00e7ok, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lganla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7lenen bir konjonkt\u00fcrde, d\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnyaya ve tabana \u201cbirlik g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc\u201d verme \u00e7abas\u0131d\u0131r. Sahada etkili bir stratejik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm \u00fcretmesi, ancak yap\u0131sal rekabetler y\u00f6netilebildi\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Sonu\u00e7: \u0130ki Soru, Tek Ger\u00e7ek\u00e7ilik Testi<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    ABD-\u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019da etnik fay hatlar\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen bir \u201cmobilizasyon\u201d hesab\u0131 bar\u0131nd\u0131rsa bile, \u0130ran K\u00fcrt silahl\u0131 alan\u0131n\u0131n par\u00e7al\u0131 yap\u0131s\u0131 ve toplumsal zemin eksikli\u011fi, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir ayaklanma ihtimalini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde 22 \u015eubat koalisyonu da \u201cyeni d\u00f6nem\u201d iddias\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131sa da, ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcler ve yap\u0131sal s\u0131n\u0131rlar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadede daha \u00e7ok konjonkt\u00fcrel bir ortakl\u0131k<\/strong> niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu iki ba\u015fl\u0131k, ayn\u0131 ger\u00e7ek\u00e7ilik testine ba\u011flan\u0131yor: Rejim kapasitesi belirgin bi\u00e7imde a\u015f\u0131nmadan, d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131 kara lojisti\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmeden ve K\u00fcrt toplumsal mobilizasyonu olu\u015fmadan \u201chareketlenme\u201d m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr; fakat \u201cayaklanma \u00fcretmek\u201d daha zordur.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Not:<\/strong> Bu analiz, \u0130RAM (\u0130ran Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Merkezi)<\/strong> yay\u0131nlar\u0131 ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 \u00c7a\u011fatay Balc\u0131<\/strong>\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7er\u00e7evesinden esinlenilerek<\/strong> haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    28 \u015eubat 2026\u2019da ba\u015flayan ABD-\u0130srail hava harek\u00e2tlar\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019da \u201cetnik mobilizasyon\u201d tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden alevlendirdi. Ancak sahadaki par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015fl\u0131k, toplumsal zemin ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik kapasitesi, K\u00fcrt silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131n \u201cayaklanma \u00fcretme\u201d ihtimalini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10520,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[575,2129,3768,3765,574,3769,1566,3766,3748,581,3767,3764],"class_list":["post-10519","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiz","tag-abd","tag-analiz","tag-habat","tag-ikdp","tag-iran","tag-irankurdistanisiyasiguclerkoalisyonu","tag-israil","tag-komala","tag-kurtgruplar","tag-ortadogu","tag-pak","tag-pjak"],"yoast_head":"\nABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in Sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019da K\u00fcrt Silahl\u0131 Gruplar\u0131 Harekete Ge\u00e7irebilir mi? - Merceknet Haber<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/03\/04\/abd-ve-israilin-saldirilari-iranda-kurt-silahli-gruplari-harekete-gecirebilir-mi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in Sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019da K\u00fcrt Silahl\u0131 Gruplar\u0131 Harekete Ge\u00e7irebilir mi? - Merceknet Haber\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"28 \u015eubat 2026\u2019da ba\u015flayan ABD-\u0130srail hava harek\u00e2tlar\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019da \u201cetnik mobilizasyon\u201d tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden alevlendirdi. 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