{"id":10184,"date":"2026-03-03T11:19:52","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T08:19:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/?p=10184"},"modified":"2026-03-03T11:23:12","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T08:23:12","slug":"savasin-golgesinde-ekonomi-alarmi-viad-genel-baskani-sinacidan-zincirleme-risk-uyarisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.merceknet.com\/tr\/2026\/03\/03\/savasin-golgesinde-ekonomi-alarmi-viad-genel-baskani-sinacidan-zincirleme-risk-uyarisi\/","title":{"rendered":"Sava\u015f\u0131n G\u00f6lgesinde Ekonomi Alarm\u0131: V\u0130AD Genel Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Sinac\u0131\u2019dan \u201cZincirleme Risk\u201d Uyar\u0131s\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Vizyoner \u0130\u015f Adamlar\u0131 Derne\u011fi (V\u0130AD) Genel Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Atilla Sinac\u0131, ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yaln\u0131zca \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma sahas\u0131nda de\u011fil; enerji, ticaret, lojistik ve finansal piyasalar \u00fczerinden b\u00f6lge ekonomilerinde \u201csahadan ta\u015fan\u201d etkiler \u00fcretti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Ba\u015fkan Sinac\u0131\u2019ya g\u00f6re \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n uzamas\u0131, riskleri tek ba\u015fl\u0131kta s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 b\u0131rakmayan; maliyetleri ve belirsizli\u011fi ayn\u0131 anda art\u0131ran \u201czincirleme\u201d bir dalga yaratacak. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu dalgadan muaf olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7eken Sinac\u0131, petrol ve hammadde fiyat \u015foku, tedarik zinciri k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131, s\u0131n\u0131r hatt\u0131nda g\u00f6\u00e7 bask\u0131s\u0131 ve kur\u2013alt\u0131n piyasalar\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131k ihtimalinin bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n

\u201cBeklenti Y\u00f6netimi\u201d Krizin Ana Sahas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sinac\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmesinde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ana vurgu, risklerin yaln\u0131zca maliyet kanal\u0131yla de\u011fil; g\u00fcven ve beklenti kanal\u0131yla da h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu. Sinac\u0131, belirsizli\u011fi azaltacak net mesajlarla y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclecek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ileti\u015fiminin kritik oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederek; enerji arz\u0131, lojistik s\u00fcreklilik, s\u0131n\u0131r g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve piyasa istikrar\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131nda sahadaki haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u015feffaf bi\u00e7imde takip edilebilmesinin hem piyasalar\u0131 hem de toplumsal psikolojiyi koruyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdi. \u201cJeopolitik konular ne yaz\u0131k ki \u00fcretimi olumsuz etkileme istidad\u0131ndad\u0131r\u201d diyen Sinac\u0131, \u201cAl\u0131nacak tedbirlerle s\u00fcre\u00e7 krizden bir f\u0131rsata da d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclebilir. Burada en \u00f6nemli nokta, \u015firketlerin ekonomi ve finansla birlikte \u00fcretimi y\u00f6neten akt\u00f6rlerin zaman\u0131nda verece\u011fi reaksiyonlar ve i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131 rahatlatacak deneyimle birle\u015ftirilmi\u015f a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 zaman\u0131nda yaparak, al\u0131nan tedbirleri h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde uygulamalar\u0131d\u0131r.\u201d \u015feklinde konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

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Sinac\u0131: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de K\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k Enerji Kanal\u0131nda B\u00fcy\u00fcyor<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sinac\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2026 itibar\u0131yla dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, jeopolitik riskler ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki dalgalanmalar nedeniyle hassas bir \u201cdenge aray\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011funu kaydetti. Bu noktada gelen b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n da ciddi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti\u011fini ifade eden Sinac\u0131,<\/p>\n

\u201cT\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken; 2025’in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 3,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Deprem b\u00f6lgesinde devam eden in\u015faat faaliyetlerinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi olumlu etkiledi\u011fini biliyoruz. Bununla birlikte imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ciddi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u015fahit olmaktayd\u0131k. \u015eimdi de kom\u015fu \u00fclkemizde bir sava\u015f ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f oldu. Bu sava\u015f\u0131n 1 ay\u0131 bulmas\u0131 ve \u00f6zellikle uluslararas\u0131 ticareti olumsuz etkilemesi, i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lamaz, ciddi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 beraberinde getirebilir. Biz bu ger\u00e7eklikten hareket ederek, erken uyar\u0131 g\u00f6revimizi yerine getirmek istiyor ve ciddi tedbirlerin al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz.\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n enerji ithalat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k nedeniyle k\u00fcresel petrol ve do\u011fal gaz fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00fcksek duyarl\u0131l\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden Sinac\u0131, 2025\u2019te cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 25,2 milyar dolar seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini; 2026 i\u00e7in ise 25\u201327 milyar dolar band\u0131nda bir a\u00e7\u0131k beklentisi bulundu\u011funu belirtti. Enerji ithalat\u0131n\u0131n toplam ithalat i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te birlik pay\u0131 oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekerek, enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanacak her s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n hem cari dengeyi hem de enflasyonu do\u011frudan zorlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n

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H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 Riski: \u201c\u015eok Etkisi\u201d Senaryosu<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sinac\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatmas\u0131 ve b\u00f6lgede artan askeri hareketlili\u011fin k\u00fcresel petrol ve LNG arz\u0131 \u00fczerinde \u015fok etkisi olu\u015fturdu\u011funu kaydetti. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fcnya petrol ticaretinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kritik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131 oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlatan Sinac\u0131, ge\u00e7i\u015flerin k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131 veya kapanman\u0131n, g\u00fcnl\u00fck 15\u201320 milyon varil petrol\u00fcn piyasa d\u0131\u015f\u0131na itilmesi anlam\u0131na gelebilece\u011fini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n

Sinac\u0131\u2019n\u0131n aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 senaryoya g\u00f6re, 2026 ba\u015f\u0131nda 60 dolar civar\u0131nda seyreden Brent petrol\u00fcn \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ko\u015fullar\u0131nda 73 dolar seviyelerine y\u00fckseldi\u011fi, k\u0131sa vadede 80\u2013100 dolar band\u0131na s\u0131\u00e7rama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 do\u011fdu\u011fu; krizin uzamas\u0131 halinde ise \u201cYeni bir 1973 petrol krizi mi geliyor?\u201d sorusu akla gelerek 120 dolar\/varil \u00fczerinde olacak \u015fekilde daha sert senaryolar\u0131n g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs raporlar\u0131na g\u00f6re k\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri \u00fcrettikleri petrol\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 23 g\u00fcn s\u00fcreyle depolayabilecek kapasiteye sahip. Fiili olarak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 haftay\u0131 a\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, k\u00fcresel arz zinciri bu olumsuz durumu tolere edebilir. Ger\u00e7ek \u015fok dalgas\u0131 bu s\u00fcrenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal olsa da \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Arap Yar\u0131madas\u0131ndaki petrol altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frudan hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131yla ba\u015flayabilir.<\/p>\n

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Lojistik K\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131: Deniz Rotas\u0131 Uzuyor, Sigorta\/Navlun Art\u0131yor<\/strong><\/p>\n

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki askeri risklerin, deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u201csava\u015f riski ek \u00fccretleri\u201d ve navlun fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini belirten Sinac\u0131, sigorta \u015firketlerinin b\u00f6lgeyi aktif sava\u015f alan\u0131 ilan ederek teminatlar\u0131n\u0131 ask\u0131ya almas\u0131n\u0131n, tedarik zinciri \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan maliyet ve s\u00fcre bask\u0131s\u0131 \u00fcretti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fck konteyner hatlar\u0131 ve tanker operat\u00f6rlerinin rotalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00dcmit Burnu\u2019na \u00e7evirmek zorunda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n, Asya\u2013Avrupa teslimat s\u00fcrelerini 30 g\u00fcne kadar uzatabilece\u011fini belirten Sinac\u0131, \u201cJust-in-Time\u201d \u00fcretim yapan sekt\u00f6rlerde (otomotiv, tekstil, makine) tedarik riskinin b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc kaydetti. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ithalat ve ihracat\u0131nda deniz yolunun pay\u0131n\u0131n %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederek, navlun ve sigorta art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frudan \u00fcretim ve ihracat maliyetlerine yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n

Hava Trafi\u011finde Aksamalar: Sefer \u0130ptalleri ve Maliyet Bask\u0131s\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sinac\u0131, b\u00f6lgedeki hava sahalar\u0131n\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 veya k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131n\u0131n, T\u00fcrkiye merkezli havayolu \u015firketlerinin \u0130ran, Irak, Suriye, L\u00fcbnan ve K\u00f6rfez hatlar\u0131nda sefer planlar\u0131n\u0131 etkiledi\u011fini; rotalar\u0131n uzamas\u0131yla yak\u0131t maliyetleri ve operasyonel planlamalar\u0131n yeniden d\u00fczenlenmesinin havac\u0131l\u0131k maliyetlerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilece\u011fini ifade etti. Bunun turizm ve i\u015f seyahatleri \u00fczerinde de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n

Alternatif Hatlar: Orta Koridor ve Kalk\u0131nma Yolu \u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131k\u0131yor<\/strong><\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel tedarik zincirindeki k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Orta Koridor ve Kalk\u0131nma Yolu projeleriyle kara\/demiryolu ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda stratejik bir merkez olma iddias\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fini vurgulayan Sinac\u0131, demiryolu ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n pay\u0131n\u0131n 2026 itibar\u0131yla %15\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131. Ancak k\u0131sa vadede kara ve demiryolunun deniz yolunun hacmini tamamen ikame etmesinin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n

G\u00f6\u00e7 Bask\u0131s\u0131 Senaryosu: S\u0131n\u0131r G\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve Sosyal Etkiler<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sinac\u0131, s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7erisinde \u0130ran\u2019da olas\u0131 rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, i\u00e7 \u00e7eki\u015fme ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar veya uzun s\u00fcreli istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k senaryolar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye yeni g\u00f6\u00e7 dalgalar\u0131 riskini b\u00fcy\u00fctebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran\u2019da 3,8 milyon Afgan m\u00fclteci bulundu\u011fu; toplamda 6 milyona yak\u0131n \u201cde facto\u201d m\u00fclteci kitlesinden s\u00f6z edildi\u011fini aktararak, olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmada bu n\u00fcfusun bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye rotas\u0131na y\u00f6nelebilece\u011fini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda Suriye krizinden bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k 4 milyon m\u00fclteciye ev sahipli\u011fi yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131na de\u011finen Sinac\u0131, yeni bir dalgan\u0131n kamu hizmetleri, konut ve g\u0131da talebi, sosyal uyum ve g\u00fcvenlik ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131nda ek y\u00fck \u00fcretece\u011fini belirtti. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede s\u0131n\u0131r g\u00fcvenli\u011fi, g\u00f6\u00e7 y\u00f6netimi ve uluslararas\u0131 i\u015fbirli\u011fi mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemine dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n

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Kur ve Alt\u0131n: \u201cOynakl\u0131k\u201d Riski, TCMB\u2019nin Ad\u0131mlar\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jeopolitik \u015foklar\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda ani dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini belirten Sinac\u0131, dolar\/TL\u2019nin 44\u201345, euro\/TL\u2019nin 52\u201353 band\u0131nda ve yukar\u0131 e\u011fimli seyretti\u011fine ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmeleri hat\u0131rlatt\u0131. Alt\u0131nda ise g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; ons alt\u0131n\u0131n 5.500 dolar band\u0131ndan yukar\u0131 e\u011fimli talep olu\u015fturmaya devam etti\u011fini, i\u00e7 piyasada gram alt\u0131n\u0131n 7.600\u20137.700 TL seviyelerine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklenti ve de\u011ferlendirmelere i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n

Sinac\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) 1 Mart gecesi finansal istikrar\u0131 desteklemek amac\u0131yla:<\/p>\n